yoda Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 18z GooFuS with the 504DM h5 low (aka PV I believe, or at least part of it) in NE MN at 240... -32c 850s in MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 18z gfs is a good example of why the euro ensembles weren't very snowy for the d11 thing. Looking forward to a real arctic front. Feb 15 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 18z gfs is a good example of why the euro ensembles weren't very snowy for the d11 thing. Looking forward to a real arctic front. Feb 15 style. I dunno... day 11 looks sneaky... have to watch IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 I dunno... day 11 looks sneaky... have to watch IMO I was just making a broad brushed comment. PV dropping that far west with no atlantic blocking could easily run lp to the nw of us. Ens MSLP panels definitely look similar to the gfs type of progression. Just gotta watch and wait as usual. We're pros at that. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I was just making a broad brushed comment. PV dropping that far west with no atlantic blocking could easily run lp to the nw of us. Ens MSLP panels definitely look similar to the gfs type of progression. Just gotta watch and wait as usual. We're pros at that. Haha End of the run is ugly until the last frame at 384... another piece of the PV it appears comes out but is too far to the west for us and causes rising heights out on the EC... so we end up with a cutter... but 00z GFS will be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I was just making a broad brushed comment. PV dropping that far west with no atlantic blocking could easily run lp to the nw of us. Ens MSLP panels definitely look similar to the gfs type of progression. Just gotta watch and wait as usual. We're pros at that. Haha The warm-wet/cold-dry look I mentioned earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The warm-wet/cold-dry look I mentioned earlier today. With a crappy Atlantic, always a risk of getting stuck in that rut. Lets hope the EPS is more correct in the pattern progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 The warm-wet/cold-dry look I mentioned earlier today. I'm sticking with 70% but might raise it Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I was just making a broad brushed comment. PV dropping that far west with no atlantic blocking could easily run lp to the nw of us. Ens MSLP panels definitely look similar to the gfs type of progression. Just gotta watch and wait as usual. We're pros at that. Haha For what time? Feb 8 or the storm it has cutting up to DET later in the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GFS GEFS love those western Atlantic + height anomalies. Otherwise it would be a much better pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 For what time? Feb 8 or the storm it has cutting up to DET later in the run? Both. It was a crappy op run but meaningless in the grand scheme. Too far out there to put much thought into it. We're going to see some wild op runs over the next week. Fasten seat belt time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Both. It was a crappy op run but meaningless in the grand scheme. Too far out there to put much thought into it. We're going to see some wild op runs over the next week. Fasten seat belt time. Just out of curiosity did the 18z OP look like the eps ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Just looked over the GEFS and some of the members are just unloading into the central part of the country. Don't have temp charts but with them dropping 1050 to 1060 HP's down I bet it is a little chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The gfs members make me think the system next weekend is very similar to the system we saw here the weekend of MLK day. The first system still has a few members that want to hang up the front and run a wave along it. I think that's a low probability as it first needs the wave and it also needs perfect timing and placement. As for the cutter talk....if we get cold, cutters can work if we time up a high in the right spot and it cuts close enough to us.to get good precip in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I was just making a broad brushed comment. PV dropping that far west with no atlantic blocking could easily run lp to the nw of us. Ens MSLP panels definitely look similar to the gfs type of progression. Just gotta watch and wait as usual. We're pros at that. Haha If the PNA/EPO ridge retrogrades like the EC and GFS are showing, there will definitely be more cutters. EDIT: Or southwest cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vance1167 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Last two Super Bowls Peyton played in led to snowstorms on the east coast... Feb 9-10 2010 and Feb 10 2014. Peyton effect snow. And sure enough the fantasy land GFS has a storm that day Also like the snowiest week of winter in DC so nut sure that theres a significant relationship there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 As for the cutter talk....if we get cold, cutters can work if we time up a high in the right spot and it cuts close enough to us.to get good precip in here. Totally agree. The advertised pattern will drop the coldest hp's into the conus this winter. Antecedent air masses will not be wimpy. It's really not a (strong) nino look at all. Very reminiscent of Jan 2014. I'm good with mixed events and front end stuff. It's a staple here. If that's how we roll and produce I'll be quite happy. 18z gefs was a cave to the euro ens. We're heading for interesting times even if not perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Totally agree. The advertised pattern will drop the coldest hp's into the conus this winter. Antecedent air masses will not be wimpy. It's really not a (strong) nino look at all. Very reminiscent of Jan 2014. I'm good with mixed events and front end stuff. It's a staple here. If that's how we roll and produce I'll be quite happy. 18z gefs was a cave to the euro ens. We're heading for interesting times even if not perfect. What do you mean by cave? Further western ridge and more SE ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 What do you mean by cave? Further western ridge and more SE ridge? More amplified with the eastern trough and higher heights in the ao/nao domain space than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Totally agree. The advertised pattern will drop the coldest hp's into the conus this winter. Antecedent air masses will not be wimpy. It's really not a (strong) nino look at all. Very reminiscent of Jan 2014. I'm good with mixed events and front end stuff. It's a staple here. If that's how we roll and produce I'll be quite happy. 18z gefs was a cave to the euro ens. We're heading for interesting times even if not perfect. That snowy cutter from last year is a great example. Only time I can remember a ripping snow on a south wind. I remember you saying it would flip, then dryslot. It did lol. Ended up being a nice little event. So, it definitely can happen. Everything from here on out is just gravy, anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Also like the snowiest week of winter in DC so nut sure that theres a significant relationship there... Sure there is. Peyton Manning controls the weather...in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 So, @ 117 hours I like the look of the shortwave near the 4-corners on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Looks really good @ 135 hours, low forming in SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 This is going to be a weenie 00z run if it plays out right, check out the energy in the SW @ 153 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Any love for the SE? Not yet, but the setup @ 177 hours looks weenieish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Gfs snows on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Ne much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016013000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I might have to run, but we'll see how it plays out....Regardless, as Bob stated earlier, if things stay on course on the ensembles we might start to see some weenie runs eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 @ 195 hours there is some energy from the PJ that is shooting southward, that wouldn't be good as it would likely raise heights on the E.C. Need the northern stream to race out ahead of any southern disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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