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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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I dunno... day 11 looks sneaky... have to watch IMO

I was just making a broad brushed comment. PV dropping that far west with no atlantic blocking could easily run lp to the nw of us. Ens MSLP panels definitely look similar to the gfs type of progression.

Just gotta watch and wait as usual. We're pros at that. Haha

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I was just making a broad brushed comment. PV dropping that far west with no atlantic blocking could easily run lp to the nw of us. Ens MSLP panels definitely look similar to the gfs type of progression.

Just gotta watch and wait as usual. We're pros at that. Haha

 

End of the run is ugly until the last frame at 384... another piece of the PV it appears comes out but is too far to the west for us and causes rising heights out on the EC... so we end up with a cutter... but 00z GFS will be different ;)

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I was just making a broad brushed comment. PV dropping that far west with no atlantic blocking could easily run lp to the nw of us. Ens MSLP panels definitely look similar to the gfs type of progression.

Just gotta watch and wait as usual. We're pros at that. Haha

The warm-wet/cold-dry look I mentioned earlier today.
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I was just making a broad brushed comment. PV dropping that far west with no atlantic blocking could easily run lp to the nw of us. Ens MSLP panels definitely look similar to the gfs type of progression.

Just gotta watch and wait as usual. We're pros at that. Haha

For what time? Feb 8 or the storm it has cutting up to DET later in the run?

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Both. It was a crappy op run but meaningless in the grand scheme. Too far out there to put much thought into it. We're going to see some wild op runs over the next week. Fasten seat belt time.

Just out of curiosity did the 18z OP look like the eps ensembles?

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The gfs members make me think the system next weekend is very similar to the system we saw here the weekend of MLK day. The first system still has a few members that want to hang up the front and run a wave along it. I think that's a low probability as it first needs the wave and it also needs perfect timing and placement.

As for the cutter talk....if we get cold, cutters can work if we time up a high in the right spot and it cuts close enough to us.to get good precip in here.

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I was just making a broad brushed comment. PV dropping that far west with no atlantic blocking could easily run lp to the nw of us. Ens MSLP panels definitely look similar to the gfs type of progression.

Just gotta watch and wait as usual. We're pros at that. Haha

If the PNA/EPO ridge retrogrades like the EC and GFS are showing, there will definitely be more cutters.

 

 

EDIT: Or southwest cutoffs.

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As for the cutter talk....if we get cold, cutters can work if we time up a high in the right spot and it cuts close enough to us.to get good precip in here.

Totally agree. The advertised pattern will drop the coldest hp's into the conus this winter. Antecedent air masses will not be wimpy. It's really not a (strong) nino look at all. Very reminiscent of Jan 2014.

I'm good with mixed events and front end stuff. It's a staple here. If that's how we roll and produce I'll be quite happy.

18z gefs was a cave to the euro ens. We're heading for interesting times even if not perfect.

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Totally agree. The advertised pattern will drop the coldest hp's into the conus this winter. Antecedent air masses will not be wimpy. It's really not a (strong) nino look at all. Very reminiscent of Jan 2014.

I'm good with mixed events and front end stuff. It's a staple here. If that's how we roll and produce I'll be quite happy.

18z gefs was a cave to the euro ens. We're heading for interesting times even if not perfect.

What do you mean by cave? Further western ridge and more SE ridge?

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Totally agree. The advertised pattern will drop the coldest hp's into the conus this winter. Antecedent air masses will not be wimpy. It's really not a (strong) nino look at all. Very reminiscent of Jan 2014.

I'm good with mixed events and front end stuff. It's a staple here. If that's how we roll and produce I'll be quite happy.

18z gefs was a cave to the euro ens. We're heading for interesting times even if not perfect.

That snowy cutter from last year is a great example. Only time I can remember a ripping snow on a south wind. I remember you saying it would flip, then dryslot. It did lol. Ended up being a nice little event. So, it definitely can happen. Everything from here on out is just gravy, anyway :)
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