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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Cold seems to be the dominant signal so far. Some smaller event potential perhaps in there. Signal for anything substantial seems pretty minor at this point.

Thats my take as well. The pattern looks like one that can deliver cold, but is almost entirely Pacific driven. Atlantic looks meh. The GEFS really doesn't have any legit blocking through the run. NAO looks mostly positive then trending neutral...maybe hints of weakly negative at the end. Can certainly get a light/moderate event or two with a look like that, and some good timing. Maybe the last week of the month will be more conducive for a bigger storm.

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Don Sutherland's discussion this morning was less than exciting. But I knowknow indicators can change quick. Last week they were much better and pretty confident in blocking whereas this week it changed.

Would you have a link to his discussion? Thank you from a noobie

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http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-6

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About 8 or 10 euro members make the followup wave more interesting after the cutter. As noted above, 6z para gfs does the same thing. Seemingly very low probability in my eyes but there have been enough hints  today to stay interested. Still a long ways out.  

I posted about that one as well on the 6z ens members of the gfs.  I think we are talking about the same thing.

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06z para was a pretty decent run.  It seems to not only like the wave on the arctic front idea for the 2/4 timeframe but also has a few more chances in there as well.  

 

Probably been asked before but is the parallel GFS model available anywhere for free?  I can't find it on google searches.  Since the arctic front is our only hope of snow in the next week I'm interested in having a looksie.

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Looks like elevation is favored so probably temp problems. Things really start to look good in the h5 dept at the end of the run. Nothing is cutting to the west with that look. 

yeah that could be the case. I see some swaths east but that seems to mostly be from an 'event' prior. d 11-15 has a few more snowy analogs tho still generally before an event not right near one.

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yeah that could be the case. I see some swaths east but that seems to mostly be from an 'event' prior. d 11-15 has a few more snowy analogs tho still generally before an event not right near one.

 

It's chaos on the low location panels. There's a good coastal cluster but a million other ones spread all over the place and unfortunately there are plenty of them to the north and west. Need a few days to sort it out. Definitely a legit -AO/NAO by the end. Pretty beautiful d13-15 panels for sure. We'll probably end up with the standard notsogood when we enter the pattern but then better chances at the cold gets established. Quite a cold signal for long lead mean panels. Woah. 

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It's chaos on the low location panels. There's a good coastal cluster but a million other ones spread all over the place and unfortunately there are plenty of them to the north and west. Need a few days to sort it out. Definitely a legit -AO/NAO by the end. Pretty beautiful d13-15 panels for sure. We'll probably end up with the standard notsogood when we enter the pattern but then better chances at the cold gets established. Quite a cold signal for long lead mean panels. Woah.

Can you post the mslp anomaly for the euro eps at 276-288.
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Definitely an impressive signal for cold on the EPS. Have to see how things progress with storms. Right now I would say there is a signal for a couple smaller events in the 7-12 day range, with the risk of anything amplifying tracking to our NW. Beyond that, if the impressive blocking advertised on the Euro is real, mid to late month looks to be a fun period.

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We have our next legit threat? GFS forms a low @ 168 hours. I think parts of SE VA get a few inches. Bob mentioned earlier the EURO ens have the threat. 

The "following" wave to the cutter is still on the table. Over the past several runs there have been enough hints and close calls among the various models that this possibility should not be dismissed. The CMC a few runs ago had a moderate snow event.

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We have our next legit threat? GFS forms a low @ 168 hours. I think parts of SE VA get a few inches. Bob mentioned earlier the EURO ens have the threat.

I wouldn't say the euro ens have the threat. Just that a couple more members picked up on the possibility. Vast majority keep precip offshore.

It all hinges on how the storm before it evolves. If it trends in our favor between now and mon-tues it could get interesting. I'm not really feelin it. I would like the chances much better if the boundary and front side of the trough wasn't so north/south oriented.

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