CAPE Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Cold seems to be the dominant signal so far. Some smaller event potential perhaps in there. Signal for anything substantial seems pretty minor at this point. Thats my take as well. The pattern looks like one that can deliver cold, but is almost entirely Pacific driven. Atlantic looks meh. The GEFS really doesn't have any legit blocking through the run. NAO looks mostly positive then trending neutral...maybe hints of weakly negative at the end. Can certainly get a light/moderate event or two with a look like that, and some good timing. Maybe the last week of the month will be more conducive for a bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buccos4vr Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Don Sutherland's discussion this morning was less than exciting. But I knowknow indicators can change quick. Last week they were much better and pretty confident in blocking whereas this week it changed. Would you have a link to his discussion? Thank you from a noobie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Don Sutherland's discussion this morning was less than exciting. But I knowknow indicators can change quick. Last week they were much better and pretty confident in blocking whereas this week it changed. Would you have a link to his discussion? Thank you from a noobie bottom of this page http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 12z gefs was a total weenie run. Looks like another arctic dump setting up to drop out of Canada at the end. heh.Wow really. Just looked at it. Great signal for the day 11-12 system for this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 06z para was a pretty decent run. It seems to not only like the wave on the arctic front idea for the 2/4 timeframe but also has a few more chances in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 About 8 or 10 euro members make the followup wave more interesting after the cutter. As noted above, 6z para gfs does the same thing. Seemingly very low probability in my eyes but there have been enough hints today to stay interested. Still a long ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 About 8 or 10 euro members make the followup wave more interesting after the cutter. As noted above, 6z para gfs does the same thing. Seemingly very low probability in my eyes but there have been enough hints today to stay interested. Still a long ways out. I posted about that one as well on the 6z ens members of the gfs. I think we are talking about the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 06z para was a pretty decent run. It seems to not only like the wave on the arctic front idea for the 2/4 timeframe but also has a few more chances in there as well. Probably been asked before but is the parallel GFS model available anywhere for free? I can't find it on google searches. Since the arctic front is our only hope of snow in the next week I'm interested in having a looksie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Probably been asked before but is the parallel GFS model available anywhere for free? I can't find it on google searches. Since the arctic front is our only hope of snow in the next week I'm interested in having a looksie. http://mageval.ncep....=NAMER&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Wow, euro ups the ante with blocking again. Red eyeball over the pole @ hr300 and hints of a west based -nao trying to show up. Looks pretty cold in our neck of the woods. Arctic stuff over the northern plains and lakes area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 EPS mean has the Feb 9-10 dealy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 http://mageval.ncep....=NAMER&ps=area What a nice little event it has for us there. I hope it's onto something. I can't figure out how to navigate from the NCEP page to the para, am I missing something or is it hidden someplace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 EPS mean has the Feb 9-10 dealy The Ian birthday suit storm. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 What a nice little event it has for us there. I hope it's onto something. I can't figure out how to navigate from the NCEP page to the para, am I missing something or is it hidden someplace? I can't either, that is why i saved that bookmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The Ian birthday suit storm. Sweet. Must be a bit east in general, mean not terribly snowy. High lats do look better this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 EPS mean has the Feb 9-10 dealy Weird evolution on the control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Must be a bit east in general, mean not terribly snowy. High lats do look better this run. Looks like elevation is favored so probably temp problems. Things really start to look good in the h5 dept at the end of the run. Nothing is cutting to the west with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Looks like elevation is favored so probably temp problems. Things really start to look good in the h5 dept at the end of the run. Nothing is cutting to the west with that look. yeah that could be the case. I see some swaths east but that seems to mostly be from an 'event' prior. d 11-15 has a few more snowy analogs tho still generally before an event not right near one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buccos4vr Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Thank you Mitchnick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 yeah that could be the case. I see some swaths east but that seems to mostly be from an 'event' prior. d 11-15 has a few more snowy analogs tho still generally before an event not right near one. It's chaos on the low location panels. There's a good coastal cluster but a million other ones spread all over the place and unfortunately there are plenty of them to the north and west. Need a few days to sort it out. Definitely a legit -AO/NAO by the end. Pretty beautiful d13-15 panels for sure. We'll probably end up with the standard notsogood when we enter the pattern but then better chances at the cold gets established. Quite a cold signal for long lead mean panels. Woah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Last two Super Bowls Peyton played in led to snowstorms on the east coast... Feb 9-10 2010 and Feb 10 2014. Peyton effect snow. And sure enough the fantasy land GFS has a storm that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's chaos on the low location panels. There's a good coastal cluster but a million other ones spread all over the place and unfortunately there are plenty of them to the north and west. Need a few days to sort it out. Definitely a legit -AO/NAO by the end. Pretty beautiful d13-15 panels for sure. We'll probably end up with the standard notsogood when we enter the pattern but then better chances at the cold gets established. Quite a cold signal for long lead mean panels. Woah.Can you post the mslp anomaly for the euro eps at 276-288. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Definitely an impressive signal for cold on the EPS. Have to see how things progress with storms. Right now I would say there is a signal for a couple smaller events in the 7-12 day range, with the risk of anything amplifying tracking to our NW. Beyond that, if the impressive blocking advertised on the Euro is real, mid to late month looks to be a fun period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 We have our next legit threat? GFS forms a low @ 168 hours. I think parts of SE VA get a few inches. Bob mentioned earlier the EURO ens have the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 We have our next legit threat? GFS forms a low @ 168 hours. I think parts of SE VA get a few inches. Bob mentioned earlier the EURO ens have the threat. I think that is the wave on the arctic front some were talking about earlier today... Feb 4-5 time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 We have our next legit threat? GFS forms a low @ 168 hours. I think parts of SE VA get a few inches. Bob mentioned earlier the EURO ens have the threat. The "following" wave to the cutter is still on the table. Over the past several runs there have been enough hints and close calls among the various models that this possibility should not be dismissed. The CMC a few runs ago had a moderate snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 We have our next legit threat? GFS forms a low @ 168 hours. I think parts of SE VA get a few inches. Bob mentioned earlier the EURO ens have the threat. I wouldn't say the euro ens have the threat. Just that a couple more members picked up on the possibility. Vast majority keep precip offshore. It all hinges on how the storm before it evolves. If it trends in our favor between now and mon-tues it could get interesting. I'm not really feelin it. I would like the chances much better if the boundary and front side of the trough wasn't so north/south oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I think that is the wave on the arctic front some were talking about earlier today... Feb 4-5 time period Yeah it looks closer to what the 6z Parallel GFS had that others were posting about. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Mr. Polar Vortex really coming down @ 216 hrs on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Nice arctic blast coming in at hr 216 on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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