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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Don Sutherland's discussion this morning was less than exciting. But I knowknow indicators can change quick. Last week they were much better and pretty confident in blocking whereas this week it changed.

 

It's possible but Don didn't mention 4 consecutive euro ens runs showing the AO getting lower every run. 0z had the AO go negative around the 6th and stay there through the run. 

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It's possible but Don didn't mention 4 consecutive euro ens runs showing the AO getting lower every run. 0z had the AO go negative around the 6th and stay there through the run. 

I just read what he wrote. He's concerned about the same two things I mentioned re temps: +AO and Nino. But, like you said, Euro seems much more bullish on the AO taking a dip. We wait.

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What I do find encouraging is the sprawling High pressure in the central and northern plains that is hooking over the GL. Not very different from last week (geez, has it been a week already?)  Plus, there is slp northeast of Nova Scotia.....again, good though not a perfect 5H look. This might fit neatly into that 30% chance of a decent event. :tomato:

Mitch, in the last few days, you have seemed overly pessimistic. I have always taken you to be an optimist Why is that? Check that. I just read your other posts.

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Mitch, in the last few days, you have seemed overly pessimistic. I have always taken you to be an optimist Why is that? Check that. I just read your other posts.

 

Mitch is trying the old weather mind control trick called reverse psychology or inverse optometry or maybe diverse podiatry

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Mitch is trying the old weather mind control trick called reverse psychology or inverse optometry or maybe diverse podiatry

Nah, you're reading too much into it. I just believe that the pattern collapsed too much for reasonable threats. The day 12 thing is looking better though. We'll see.
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e18 must be the op run.  If it isn't, then it's an exact duplicate.

 

I'd like to see the 276 and 288 panels of that run.

 

Ops run is similar, but swings the low farther offshore as it goes by.  It still gives us a fair bit of precip all the same and it's quite cold.  Of course, not exactly worth much to point out such differences at this point 264+ hours out.  I do like the look of those ensemble members overall; looks like e17 is the only real "dog" in there from what I can see (high already moving offshore, rain from the OH valley to the East Coast).

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GEFS ensembles don't break it down quickly.  They hold a great look beyond 300.

 

Well that's a bit more comforting.  I noticed previous GEFS means held the same general "cold look" throughout.  Of course, the ops GFS is essentially one high-res run "ensemble member" (so to speak), and we're talking way out in time.  So yeah, GEFS are better to look at for overall pattern look.

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It's hilarious reading these posts. One post says the long range pattern looks great, lots of cold and chances for storms. The next one says it isn't very exciting. What a roller coaster.

Cold seems to be the dominant signal so far. Some smaller event potential perhaps in there. Signal for anything substantial seems pretty minor at this point.

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