Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Jan is closing out. We can use the Jan thread for the threat on life support. Time to see if we can hit the home run and talk about how great Feb is going to be. The first few days of the month look warm and the storm traversing the country will probably cut west of us. Unless the CMC just sniffed out the next HECS. haha The pattern beginning around the 4-5th is similar in some ways to last year with a decent -EPO/+PNA starting to show up but a +NAO to go along with it. Hard to say how the month ends up but my wag is a period of -AO/-NAO and some chances. Even this GEFS plot isn't terrible. Prime climo period for a flawed or fluke system. A few days later looks better with a low height anomaly to our NE. This is a decent look without having a nice -NAO. EPS is similar to the GFS in timing of the eastern trough and the door opening beyond the 4th. I'm pretty optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 As you mentioned briefly above Bob, the 12z GGEM seemed to suggest a Feb greeting with a potential snowstorm as a H moves in concert with a low down by the GOM... granted this is a Day 9-10 threat, but GGEM has been sniffing around this time period for the past few runs now... With the maps you posted above, they do look pretty nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Lol, just looked @ the Day 9-10 CMC, holy crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 I'd say the GEFS is showing an active period coming up in early Feb...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Pretty bullish for long leads. Almost all of this happens between d9-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Pretty bullish for long leads. Almost all of this happens between d9-16. GEFSsnow.JPG e1 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ryan hardly ever even mentions the strat stuff https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/691668608708141057 I read the GEFS looked very good as well as of a couple days ago. Wonder too the implications of cross polar flow and the recent harsh arctic outbreak in Hong Kong, China, Japan and Taiwan. https://www.rt.com/news/330095-death-toll-rises-across-east/#.VqZ5GxKF7oE.twitter Some incredible records that date back many decades have been broken. The stage may be getting set for a very prolonged and harsh period along the Eastern US after the first week in February, cold and snow-wise. For my preference I will go with the Excam https://twitter.com/wxmidwest/status/691332846762401792 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Weeklies look pretty good. Once we get past the 4th or so it looks like a cooperative Pac for the rest of the month. Atlantic is never that great but not awful. Week 3 is a +pna/-epo combo. Looks colder than normal. Week 4 has a split flow look with a +pna/-epo/-ao. Nao is prob neutral. Temps around normal. I don't have precip plots yet but I assume normal or above normal precip. Overall an encouraging run with the only pause given is no signal for atlantic blocking. Aleutian low in a good spot the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Cohen's latest thoughts http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation https://twitter.com/judah47?lang=en January 25, 2016 SummaryThe Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently slightly negative but is predicted to jump moderately positive this week. The AO reversal is reflective of the pattern relaxation of strongly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies over the Arctic basin, especially on the North Atlantic side, and negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes. This is a strengthening of the polar vortex (PV) in the troposphere, which has pulled the Jet Stream poleward. The return to positive AO atmospheric state will result in an overall milder pattern across the Northern Hemisphere including the Eastern United States, Europe and Western Asia. The one exception is East Asia, which in part is due to extensive snow cover all winter that has insulated the region to the penetration of milder maritime air. A significant disturbance or perturbation of the stratospheric polar vortex (PV) is underway that could potentially culminate in a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) sometime in February. Therefore we interpret the predicted milder pattern as a relaxation of the recent cold pattern rather than a pattern reversal. The perturbation of the polar vortex is likely to dominate the evolution of the temperature variability across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for the duration of winter. The expected SSW should favor for much of February and even into March a negative AO, and relatively cold temperatures for the NH mid-latitude continents. As the evolution of the PV becomes clearer in the models we are growing more confident in ridging across western North America, the return of cross polar flow and cold temperatures to the Eastern United States. With the PV shifting into Eurasia, temperatures will likely turn colder as well, with the cold pattern continuing across East Asia but with more uncertainty for Western Europe. An eventual polar vortex split would likely yield the most widespread cold across the NH with cold temperatures for both the Eastern United States and Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Slightly OT but all models show are showing an epic severe setup for the south central states next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I actually think as we get closer to the time period the models will trend colder with that cutter they are showing Day 8-10. Across the board the mods all showing a big time HP in SE Canada. With the B of 2016 what really helped us was that reinforcing cold shot we get before the storm. If we can get something like that again we certainly can cash in on it...Way out there, but there is a huge signal for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Hberg, there's pretty much unanimous ensemble agreement that the storm wraps up early and cuts west. Imo- the only chance we stand at frozen would require strong confluence and strong hp to the north leading in for a shot at front end stuff. With the way h5 looks right now, this thing would cut into a -nao. Still a long ways out but just like we saw with the blizzard at long leads...agreement is pretty strong right now. But this time it's into the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Hberg, there's pretty much unanimous ensemble agreement that the storm wraps up early and cuts west. Imo- the only chance we stand at frozen would require strong confluence and strong hp to the north leading in for a shot at front end stuff. With the way h5 looks right now, this thing would cut into a -nao. Still a long ways out but just like we saw with the blizzard at long leads...agreement is pretty strong right now. But this time it's into the lakes. Agreed, There's going to be a warm up and a cutter. Pattern looks nicer after that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Hey I agree with ya guys, just feeling the postive vibes ... Anyway, tonight's LR GFS has the cutter, but check out the massive +PNA @ 220 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Bob, wow, you called it ....Right after the cutter both the GFS & EURO bring a solid pattern back in play EURO GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Interesting things at the pole, continued progress https://twitter.com/CerebralV0rtex If you look closely at the individual trends within the forecasted AO you will see a little more concentration on a movement back down considering we are going up rather high on the positive side. I would envision a laddered down approach similar to the period from the last third of December to the middle of January. ( how negative remains to be seen ) Seems that as others have stated the Pacific corporates but the Atlantic does not , but moving forward in time you would think that the probabilities for a negative NAO to develop increase once the AO goes negative along with some other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 This thread needs to be pinned and the Jan thread closed as anything in January is now moving into the short range. Also, Bob, what are your thoughts on changing the title to our more traditional moniker? More easily recognizable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 This thread needs to be pinned and the Jan thread closed as anything in January is now moving into the short range. Also, Bob, what are your thoughts on changing the title to our more traditional moniker? More easily recognizable? Done. No changes to overnight guidance. Need to be patient for a while but winter type pattern returning around the 4-5th remains locked in time. CPC d11+ analogs still have the Feb 83 period showing up. One can dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Done. No changes to overnight guidance. Need to be patient for a while but winter type pattern returning around the 4-5th remains locked in time. CPC d11+ analogs still have the Feb 83 period showing up. One can dream... I'm dreaming of a white... February Anyway, yeah, going to be a tough next 10 days with nothing brewing snow-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Any Jan 22, 2016 analogs showing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Done. No changes to overnight guidance. Need to be patient for a while but winter type pattern returning around the 4-5th remains locked in time. CPC d11+ analogs still have the Feb 83 period showing up. One can dream... I noticed there are about 3 gfs members that don't allow next weeks system to cut as early and would give us more of a wintry type outcome. I'll ride those for now.....waiting on the better stuff later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Really like the look of the ensembles for the Day 10-12 period. Even the 00z EPS has a signal for Day 11.....Just enjoy the break, I will....Could get a few warm days out ahead of the cutter. I'm not a fan of cold wx anyway as weird as that sounds unless it is historic cold. Give me HECSs around mild wx every winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 I noticed there are about 3 gfs members that don't allow next weeks system to cut as early and would give us more of a wintry type outcome. I'll ride those for now.....waiting on the better stuff later on.EPS shows some interesting solutions after the wrapped up storm moves away. A handful have a follow up wave riding the boundary through here. One thing I noticed also is ens mean precip is .6-.7 for the 6 day period between the 4th-10th. That pretty wet for a mean at long leads. A +pna pattern alone can't really drive a big storm. Too progressive. But overall our chances for more snow after Feb 4th seem at least slightly above normal. Last night's weeklies imply that snow chances continue through the balance of the month. If LR ensembles are underestimating the strength of the -ao then things could get pretty rockin around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 EPS shows some interesting solutions after the wrapped up storm moves away. A handful have a follow up wave riding the boundary through here. One thing I noticed also is ens mean precip is .6-.7 for the 6 day period between the 4th-10th. That pretty wet for a mean at long leads. A +pna pattern alone can't really drive a big storm. Too progressive. But overall our chances for more snow after Feb 4th seem at least slightly above normal. Last night's weeklies imply that snow chances continue through the balance of the month. If LR ensembles are underestimating the strength of the -ao then things could get pretty rockin around here. That is extremely interesting to me, was just about to post that because the OP GFS and Para is hinting at that very thing happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 That is extremely interesting to me, was just about to post that because the OP GFS and Para is hinting at that very thing happening It's probably our next chance. I'm not seeing anything compelling before it at all. 6z para gfs at d10-11 is a good example of the potential. It's lala land of course but that's what we need to be looking for as we slowly pass time during a boring period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 The globals are definitely starting to show some chances in lala range, but I'm going to enjoy the nice warm and boring 10 days before the action picks up again. Tracked that last storm nearly 16 days, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Pretty crazy how strong the Nino remains this late into winter. What I find most encouraging is the very notable drop in 1-2 and highest anomalies centered in 4-3.4. +PDO is looking pretty textbook. Sometimes Ninos will have cold anomalies in the Npac pushed all the way to the west coast. 09 & 03 both had this. My wag is the current SSTA config indicates a predominant +PNA through the entire month of Feb. Looks to start off that way either way. To compare 98 at the same point in time, there is really no comparison at all. We are dealing with a much different Pac setup in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 What a setup on the uber lr GFS, not taking it verbatim of course, but I really feel it will be hard to not get a snowstorm in Feb if the pattern being progged shows up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 GGEM has a low developing on the front Day 9-10, let's see if EURO shows something semi similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 What a setup on the uber lr GFS, not taking it verbatim of course, but I really feel it will be hard to not get a snowstorm in Feb if the pattern being progged shows up I saw that at 372 hours. Total lala land, but a decent setup at 500 mb. Things could get fun again post feb 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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