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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Jan is closing out. We can use the Jan thread for the threat on life support. Time to see if we can hit the home run and talk about how great Feb is going to be.

The first few days of the month look warm and the storm traversing the country will probably cut west of us. Unless the CMC just sniffed out the next HECS. haha

The pattern beginning around the 4-5th is similar in some ways to last year with a decent -EPO/+PNA starting to show up but a +NAO to go along with it. Hard to say how the month ends up but my wag is a period of -AO/-NAO and some chances. Even this GEFS plot isn't terrible. Prime climo period for a flawed or fluke system.

post-2035-0-31035500-1453744108_thumb.jp

A few days later looks better with a low height anomaly to our NE. This is a decent look without having a nice -NAO.

post-2035-0-27219400-1453744157_thumb.jp

EPS is similar to the GFS in timing of the eastern trough and the door opening beyond the 4th. I'm pretty optimistic.

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As you mentioned briefly above Bob, the 12z GGEM seemed to suggest a Feb greeting with a potential snowstorm as a H moves in concert with a low down by the GOM... granted this is a Day 9-10 threat, but GGEM has been sniffing around this time period for the past few runs now...

 

With the maps you posted above, they do look pretty nice

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Ryan hardly ever even mentions the strat stuff

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/691668608708141057

 

 

I read the GEFS looked very good as well as of a couple days ago.

 

Wonder too the implications of cross polar flow and the recent harsh arctic outbreak in Hong Kong,  China, Japan and Taiwan.

 

https://www.rt.com/news/330095-death-toll-rises-across-east/#.VqZ5GxKF7oE.twitter

 

Some incredible records that date back many decades have been broken.

 

The stage may be getting set for a very prolonged and harsh period along the Eastern US after the first week in February, cold and snow-wise.

 

For my preference I will go with the Excam

 

https://twitter.com/wxmidwest/status/691332846762401792

 

CZgbj1xW0AI9BdH.jpg

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Weeklies look pretty good. Once we get past the 4th or so it looks like a cooperative Pac for the rest of the month. Atlantic is never that great but not awful.

Week 3 is a +pna/-epo combo. Looks colder than normal. Week 4 has a split flow look with a +pna/-epo/-ao. Nao is prob neutral. Temps around normal.

I don't have precip plots yet but I assume normal or above normal precip. Overall an encouraging run with the only pause given is no signal for atlantic blocking. Aleutian low in a good spot the whole time.

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Cohen's latest thoughts 

 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

https://twitter.com/judah47?lang=en

 

 

January 25, 2016 Summary
  • The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently slightly negative but is predicted to jump moderately positive this week.
  • The AO reversal is reflective of the pattern relaxation of strongly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies over the Arctic basin, especially on the North Atlantic side, and negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes. This is a strengthening of the polar vortex (PV) in the troposphere, which has pulled the Jet Stream poleward.
  • The return to positive AO atmospheric state will result in an overall milder pattern across the Northern Hemisphere including the Eastern United States, Europe and Western Asia. The one exception is East Asia, which in part is due to extensive snow cover all winter that has insulated the region to the penetration of milder maritime air.
  • A significant disturbance or perturbation of the stratospheric polar vortex (PV) is underway that could potentially culminate in a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) sometime in February.   Therefore we interpret the predicted milder pattern as a relaxation of the recent cold pattern rather than a pattern reversal.
  • The perturbation of the polar vortex is likely to dominate the evolution of the temperature variability across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for the duration of winter.  The expected SSW should favor for much of February and even into March a negative AO, and relatively cold temperatures for the NH mid-latitude continents.  As the evolution of the PV becomes clearer in the models we are growing more confident in ridging across western North America, the return of cross polar flow and cold temperatures to the Eastern United States.  With the PV shifting into Eurasia, temperatures will likely turn colder as well, with the cold pattern continuing across East Asia but with more uncertainty for Western Europe.
  • An eventual polar vortex split would likely yield the most widespread cold across the NH with cold temperatures for both the Eastern United States and Europe.
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I actually think as we get closer to the time period the models will trend colder with that cutter they are showing Day 8-10. Across the board the mods all showing a big time HP in SE Canada. With the B of 2016 what really helped us was that reinforcing cold shot we get before the storm. If we can get something like that again we certainly can cash in on it...Way out there, but there is a huge signal for a storm.

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Hberg, there's pretty much unanimous ensemble agreement that the storm wraps up early and cuts west. Imo- the only chance we stand at frozen would require strong confluence and strong hp to the north leading in for a shot at front end stuff. With the way h5 looks right now, this thing would cut into a -nao.

Still a long ways out but just like we saw with the blizzard at long leads...agreement is pretty strong right now. But this time it's into the lakes.

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Hberg, there's pretty much unanimous ensemble agreement that the storm wraps up early and cuts west. Imo- the only chance we stand at frozen would require strong confluence and strong hp to the north leading in for a shot at front end stuff. With the way h5 looks right now, this thing would cut into a -nao.

Still a long ways out but just like we saw with the blizzard at long leads...agreement is pretty strong right now. But this time it's into the lakes.

Agreed, There's going to be a warm up and a cutter. Pattern looks nicer after that though.

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Interesting things at the pole, continued progress  

 

https://twitter.com/CerebralV0rtex

 

If you look closely at the individual trends within the forecasted AO you will see a little more concentration on a movement back down considering we are going up rather high on the positive side.  I would envision a laddered down approach similar to the period from 

the last third of December to the middle of January. ( how negative remains to be seen ) 

 

Seems that as others have stated the Pacific corporates but the Atlantic does not , but moving forward in time you would think that the probabilities for a negative NAO to develop increase once the AO goes negative along with some other factors.

 

 

CZmfoBHW0AAueaE.png

 

 

ao.sprd2.gif

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This thread needs to be pinned and the Jan thread closed as anything in January is now moving into the short range.

Also, Bob, what are your thoughts on changing the title to our more traditional moniker? More easily recognizable?

Done.

No changes to overnight guidance. Need to be patient for a while but winter type pattern returning around the 4-5th remains locked in time.

CPC d11+ analogs still have the Feb 83 period showing up. One can dream...

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Done.

No changes to overnight guidance. Need to be patient for a while but winter type pattern returning around the 4-5th remains locked in time.

CPC d11+ analogs still have the Feb 83 period showing up. One can dream...

 

I'm dreaming of a white... February ;)

 

Anyway, yeah, going to be a tough next 10 days with nothing brewing snow-wise

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Done.

No changes to overnight guidance. Need to be patient for a while but winter type pattern returning around the 4-5th remains locked in time.

CPC d11+ analogs still have the Feb 83 period showing up. One can dream...

I noticed there are about 3 gfs members that don't allow next weeks system to cut as early and would give us more of a wintry type outcome. I'll ride those for now.....waiting on the better stuff later on.

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Really like the look of the ensembles for the Day 10-12 period. Even the 00z EPS has a signal for Day 11.....Just enjoy the break, I will....Could get a few warm days out ahead of the cutter. I'm not a fan of cold wx anyway as weird as that sounds unless it is historic cold. Give me HECSs around mild wx every winter ;)

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I noticed there are about 3 gfs members that don't allow next weeks system to cut as early and would give us more of a wintry type outcome. I'll ride those for now.....waiting on the better stuff later on.

EPS shows some interesting solutions after the wrapped up storm moves away. A handful have a follow up wave riding the boundary through here. One thing I noticed also is ens mean precip is .6-.7 for the 6 day period between the 4th-10th. That pretty wet for a mean at long leads.

A +pna pattern alone can't really drive a big storm. Too progressive. But overall our chances for more snow after Feb 4th seem at least slightly above normal. Last night's weeklies imply that snow chances continue through the balance of the month. If LR ensembles are underestimating the strength of the -ao then things could get pretty rockin around here.

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EPS shows some interesting solutions after the wrapped up storm moves away. A handful have a follow up wave riding the boundary through here. One thing I noticed also is ens mean precip is .6-.7 for the 6 day period between the 4th-10th. That pretty wet for a mean at long leads.

A +pna pattern alone can't really drive a big storm. Too progressive. But overall our chances for more snow after Feb 4th seem at least slightly above normal. Last night's weeklies imply that snow chances continue through the balance of the month. If LR ensembles are underestimating the strength of the -ao then things could get pretty rockin around here.

 

That is extremely interesting to me, was just about to post that because the OP GFS and Para is hinting at that very thing happening

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That is extremely interesting to me, was just about to post that because the OP GFS and Para is hinting at that very thing happening

It's probably our next chance. I'm not seeing anything compelling before it at all. 6z para gfs at d10-11 is a good example of the potential. It's lala land of course but that's what we need to be looking for as we slowly pass time during a boring period.

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Pretty crazy how strong the Nino remains this late into winter. What I find most encouraging is the very notable drop in 1-2 and highest anomalies centered in 4-3.4. +PDO is looking pretty textbook. Sometimes Ninos will have cold anomalies in the Npac pushed all the way to the west coast. 09 & 03 both had this. My wag is the current SSTA config indicates a predominant +PNA through the entire month of Feb. Looks to start off that way either way. 

 

anomnight.1.25.2016.gif

 

 

 

To compare 98 at the same point in time, there is really no comparison at all. We are dealing with a much different Pac setup in general. 

 

anomnight.1.24.1998.gif

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What a setup on the uber lr GFS, not taking it verbatim of course, but I really feel it will be hard to not get a snowstorm in Feb if the pattern being progged shows up

I saw that at 372 hours.  Total lala land, but a decent setup at 500 mb. Things could get fun again post feb 4.

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