AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Threat for a minor snow event if we can thread the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 even if we get a shift NW I think a lot of us would have mixing issues with the lack of a cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Not a threat. OTS well south and east. Kicker riding Canadian border keeps flow progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Not a threat. OTS well south and east. Kicker riding Canadian border keeps flow progressive. I wouldn't rule it out at this point Ralph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I wouldn't rule it out at this point Ralph.Looks like a coastal grazer at best. Things could change tho. That kicker wont help us however. See my post in vendor section. Can u post maps or links to model support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Looks like a coastal grazer at best. Things could change tho. That kicker wont help us however. See my post in vendor section. Can u post maps or links to model support? Ensembles aient far off, some show a stronger storm that gets close enough to the coast for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Every storm has also come further NW than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ensembles aient far off, some show a stronger storm that gets close enough to the coast for usMost are clustered East of the low with only a few members West of the mean slp. Guess we can keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Most are clustered East of the low with only a few members West of the mean slp. Guess we can keep an eye on it. Per Yoda from the MA, about 20 show 2" + in DC. Definitely something to watch. Timing is everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 We are within 84 hours or so of this....I would feel alot more confident if an op model at the very least had snow for the immediate PHL area. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 We are within 84 hours or so of this....I would feel alot more confident if an op model at the very least had snow for the immediate PHL area. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Agree, Ralph. 12Z GFS is OTS by a wide margin. This is an extremely low threat and I have told my follwers this is most likely a non issue. If its a grazer, the coastal section see light rain anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS and GGEM out to sea... should have known better than to disagree with Ralph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS and GGEM out to sea... should have known better than to disagree with RalphLol, you didn't disagree with me per se....you were disagreeing with the model consensus. I'm far from infallible, trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Lol, you didn't disagree with me per se....you were disagreeing with the model consensus. I'm far from infallible, trust me. Yea this looks like a non threat progressive out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS and GGEM out to sea... should have known better than to disagree with Ralph Haven't the models trended more north and west with most, if not all, storms this winter so far in this time range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Timing is off this one will exit east. I believe after next weekends mild up and subsequent rainstorm the pattern resets and out past day 10 we will have our next snow opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 This one needs a hail mary, however Redsky check out the GGEM Day 8-10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 This one needs a hail mary, however Redsky check out the GGEM Day 8-10... I saw that last night too but discounted it as too far out showed up for a few runs now I think. Looks way warm though. low 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Euro Ensembles make me look like a fool for even considering the threat. This thread didnt even make it 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Euro Ensembles make me look like a fool for even considering the threat. This thread didnt even make it 12 hours.The eps last night looked like it may have a shot to thread the needle especially with the nw trends of recent but the pattern is just too progressive. I've got my snow fix for the winter so anything else is just gravy. Would be pretty crazy if February is warm that we'd have three weeks of winter and above average snowfall for most of the area. That's gotta be a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Ehh, we can't have them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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