JC-CT Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Brad field, a ct met out of Hartford said don't dismiss the late week threat just yet...he's pretty well respected up this way There is still an inverted trough threat for NE, and there is always the outside chance it comes back enough to be a scraper for Eastern Mass, kind of like the one earlier this month. It's over for a major coastal impact. Actually, I'll cover my behind and say it's very unlikely to have major impact. Can't really ever write something off as 0% when it is still a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 pretty close call...on 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html interestingly enough this shortwave is diving instead of just going east.ridge out west looks stronger.and the gulf looks like it wants to open back up??.just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html interestingly enough this shortwave is diving instead of just going east.ridge out west looks stronger.and the gulf looks like it wants to open back up??.just an observation. Gfs and nam trended west with fridays storm. Umm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Gfs and nam trended west with fridays storm. Umm. Really significant changes from the 06z to 12z runs. Not that it will mean anything unless they make another radical shift, which seems highly unlikely this late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Really significant changes from the 06z to 12z runs. Not that it will mean anything unless they make another radical shift, which seems highly unlikely this late in the game. yeah well it's been a highly unlikely turn of events for most of us on this board this week, so you never know bud lol. but models have trended west though including king nam,so there is still some time although small to come a bit more west with this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Looking at the NAM sim radar... it clips parts of the area with some snow showers. What other models have trended west besides the GFS and NAM? or is that it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 yeah well it's been a highly unlikely turn of events for most of us on this board this week, so you never know bud lol. but models have trended west though including king nam,so there is still some time although small to come a bit more west with this.. We can only hope. It's not like we have anything else to track for the next week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 We can only hope. It's not like we have anything else to track for the next week or two. yeah but i have hunch that this might actually cut even more west thru-out the day.ill take some snow snowers at this point,just yesterday it was a complete miss so you never know. lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 yeah but i have hunch that this might actually cut even more west thru-out the day.ill take some snow snowers at this point,just yesterday it was a complete miss so you never know. lol.. Would be fun if we had a Boxing Day esque turnaround, but that kind of thing is rare and, therefore, exceedingly unlikely. So I'll hope without getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Would be fun if we had a Boxing Day esque turnaround, but that kind of thing is rare and, therefore, exceedingly unlikely. So I'll hope without getting my hopes up. in a way we already got our big bd turn around i'd say,we went from barely any snow here in the city to wide spread 2 almost 3 foot amounts in about a day lol,my hopes are moderate for this one though.im 2 for 2 on snow events around my area so far,got bashed for it most times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Gefs also shifted west for friday.Close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Any news on the EURO if it shifted as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 This is an Eastern LI scraper and the biggest threat is maybe an IVT for the area with some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Still pretty dam close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 This is an Eastern LI scraper and the biggest threat is maybe an IVT for the area with some light snow.Sorry to sound as ignorant as I am... What's an IVT?Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Sorry to sound as ignorant as I am... What's an IVT? A pipe dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Sorry to sound as ignorant as I am... What's an IVT? Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Inverted trough, known as a Norlun instability trough. It extends back and away from a lp center. Can lead to snows for the area when the lp is a considerable distance away. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Inverted trough, known as a Norlun instability trough. It extends back and away from a lp center. Can lead to snows for the area when the lp is a considerable distance away. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk I gotcha. Inverted troughs usually are more common with thunderstorm squalls heading northeast towards the coast (which causes stronger winds and commas), correct?Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 So damn close on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Only so close it can get guys, don't get your hopes up. If it wasn't for the kicker that breaks dowen the ridge @ 36 hours or so this would have been a Miller B MECS. While it is impressive how far W it has trended, with the kicker & break down of the ridge, can only go so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 So damn close on the nam Yes it was. There just isn't enough time for us though tonight will make it or break it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur our current low is pretty south compared to what most models have it.just follow the pressure drops tonight folks.while i think it's too small of a window there is still a veryy slight chance this phases just in time esp the more north east you are.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The NAM actually has it phasing now; albeit about 400 miles NE of where it needs to be, but interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur our current low is pretty south compared to what most models have it.just follow the pressure drops tonight folks.while i think it's too small of a window there is still a veryy slight chance this phases just in time esp the more north east you are.. If this was to ever hit the powerball, our low is related to the thunderstorm activity in the Gulf of Mexico. We would need to see that crap by Florida scoot out of the way faster and have the follow-up wave strengthen a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 If this was to ever hit the powerball, our low is related to the thunderstorm activity in the Gulf of Mexico. We would need to see that crap by Florida scoot out of the way faster and have the follow-up wave strengthen a lot more. correct and by the looks of things it wants to do just that,the second wave is trying to get it's act together in the western gulf currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The NAM actually has it phasing now; albeit about 400 miles NE of where it needs to be, but interesting nonetheless. Well, hey, at least it's phasing. (Said sarcastically.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 gfs has flurries / light snow now...friday afternoon. the westward trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The trend is our friend. The northern branch energy needs to chill a bit or dive further south though if we are to have any chance.Outside of eastern and northern New England, this is not a threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 nowcasting whats going on tonight around Florida could be crucial. any slight deviations in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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