Mitchel Volk Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The ECMWF, ECM and hint from the GFS show a potential for more snow. The ECM model projects over 6" for the city. There is a cold push ahead of a short wave from the south. Another short coming down from Canada show some potential phasing. My main concern will be the boundary level temps. I would like to see a few more runs of the model cycles before I jump on it. My interest is peaked because the models under estimated last Sunday small event which is similar to this.one. But, this one is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Will be interesting to see if we thread the needle with a phase. Cold air looks marginal. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So close on the 00z ECMWF. Just needed a cleaner phase and a few hours sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So close on the 00z ECMWF. Just needed a cleaner phase and a few hours sooner. Any word on ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Any word on ensembles? very close to my untrained eye. Good chance of snow but it won't be a blockbuster could get a nice 6 inch event thoughSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 0z Euro Ensembles still interesting for Friday. Watch guidance today for a potential NW shift. Lots of moving parts. https://t.co/pBVKc9zY7y Seems like a pretty big spread to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 EPS , almost every member on the WEST side of the mean is SUB 980 . All the weaker members are really wide right . If those wide right members are errors then look for the mean to tighten up further west . NWS Taunton: 00Z EPS HAS MANY STRONG MEMBERS WITH PRESSURES SUB 980MBAND SUB 970MB ALONG WITH A TRACK CLUSTERING NEAR THE BENCHMARK!DEFINITELY WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF MANY EPSMEMBERS. UPTON: THERE IS THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSINGSE OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOW CLOSE TO US ITEVENTUALLY APPROACHES APPEARS TO BE IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE PHASINGTIMING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLEMEAN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS TRACKS THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORELOW CLOSER TO US...BRINGING PCPN TO MOST OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...GFSHAS BEEN FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW AND KEEPS US DRY. GEFS MEANHAS HOWEVER BEEN FARTHER NW WITH THE LOW AND CLOSER TO ECMWF.CONSIDERING THE GEFS MEAN TYPICAL SE BIAS IN SITUATIONS LIKETHIS...THERE`S A DECENT CHANCE THAT THE GFS WILL EVENTUALLY NUDGEFARTHER NW WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM. WILL CAP POPS AT CHC FORNOW. KEPT PCPN TYPES BASIC AT THIS POINT WITH THIS BEING A PRIMARILYSNOW EVENT...BUT WITH MIXING POSSIBILITIES AT SOME COASTAL SPOTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 JB regarding the late week Said Friday on @TeamCavuto and @seanhannity to watch out this week. models should correct west for threat Thur pm into Fri for more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://bit.ly/1ZN5ESe Great explanation from Bernie Rayno, on why we need the trough to go negative, and the Low energy out ahead of the trough.. He thinks it's coming west... But a good video for anyone who doesn't understand negative and positive trough set-ups and how they play a role for ECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 This is a New England threat IMO, especially eastern New England, maybe eastern Long Island too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 This is a New England threat IMO, especially eastern New England, maybe eastern Long Island too Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 This is a New England threat IMO, especially eastern New England, maybe eastern Long Island too Not if it phases earlier . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://bit.ly/1ZN5ESe Great explanation from Bernie Rayno, on why we need the trough to go negative, and the Low energy out ahead of the trough.. He thinks it's coming west... But a good video for anyone who doesn't understand negative and positive trough set-ups and how they play a role for ECS Thanks. That was actually educational. I never really understood the mechanics of making a trough negatively tilted by the interaction with a piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 This mornings gfs was the closest run yet and it's definitely trending in our favor, hopefully 12z continues that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Waiting on NAM before getting too interested in this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Concerning even with an offshore track. I'm down along Ortley Beach in Toms River and there's nothing left except a 12 foot cliff and then the road. The OEM says they can't take another round of waves and big tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Agreed! I honestly do not think that is true... due to the fact that all systems have trended much farther NW this year and that should be case here as well. Now that does not mean it would be a blockbuster storm but something more on the lines of significant. Since this threat is in 3-4 day range it makes it even more interesting. It definitely needs to be watched to see if TODAY the models start to realize that this wouldn't be going OTS. There is already some signals from the EPS and GFS ensembles that this will come further NORTHWEST.... I really like that fact the majority of the EPS is leaning NW... again fun times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Keep a watch on the ridge south of Newfoundland in later runs with the record warm SST's out there. A stronger ridge will force the phase further west than the 0z Op Euro was showing. midatl_oisst_anom_current.png eps_z500a_exnamer_19.png Wouldn't that ridge force the system to have to come up the coast and NOT OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Wouldn't that ridge force the system to have to come up the coast and NOT OTS? That's the point he's making I believe Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 NAM at 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Keep a watch on the ridge south of Newfoundland in later runs with the record warm SST's out there. A stronger ridge will force the phase further west than the 0z Op Euro was showing. midatl_oisst_anom_current.png eps_z500a_exnamer_19.png Good post Chris , these have all come further W this year even when the PAC was a mess. The ridge stays in place through 96 , so this argues for this to come N . This may be a case where we need to see this sampled better and get inside 48 hours before we see the guidance come W . 1 good sign on the EPS was all the strong sub 980 indi were W of the mean . lets see if that trend continues today . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Good post Chris , these have all come further W this year even when the PAC was a mess. The ridge stays in place through 96 , so this argues for this to come N . This may be a case where we need to see this sampled better and get inside 48 hours before we see the guidance come W . 1 good sign on the EPS was all the strong sub 980 indi were W of the mean . lets see if that trend continues today . I was pretty shocked to see how many members have this storm in a perfect location for both NYC and the interior to cash in, obviously a few member favor the coast and a few members bring it too west favoring the interior, but good signs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 That's the point he's making I believe Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 100% a matter of timing and not ingredients IMO, if the energy can get out ahead of the trough, the trough will go negative, nearly ensuring a ride up the coast.. If the energy is in sync, or behind the trough, the trough stays positive or neutral and the storm cannot make a norther push... 6 hour swing either way would make a huge difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Here's a depiction of the nam on exactly what I think, WONT happen.. The southern stream, and trough, are in sync.. They stay parallel, pushes the southern stream east off the coast and never goes negative..with a roaring PAC, warm waters, and the fact that models have been increasingly slow and behind on southern stream energy... My call right now would be the southern stream is out ahead of the trough, turns the trough neutral, then negative prior to the southern stream making it to the coast, and allows this to ride up the coast. No way these 2 energys stay even and ride to the coast holding hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 100% a matter of timing and not ingredients IMO, if the energy can get out ahead of the trough, the trough will go negative, nearly ensuring a ride up the coast.. If the energy is in sync, or behind the trough, the trough stays positive or neutral and the storm cannot make a norther push... 6 hour swing either way would make a huge difference... I have been following your posts throughout the blizzard, and I thank you for your very interesting and knowledgable posts. I have learned so much from them. At what point can we determine that the energy WILL in fact get ahead of the trough? The players are all on the field already (land), so would the next 24 hours be key? Also, which model guidance would you suggest is the best at forecasting this aspect to the forecast? Seems the EURO is picking it up more than the GFS right now? Thanks so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I have been following your posts throughout the blizzard, and I thank you for your very interesting and knowledgable posts. I have learned so much from them. At what point can we determine that the energy WILL in fact get ahead of the trough? The players are all on the field already (land), so would the next 24 hours be key? Also, which model guidance would you suggest is the best at forecasting this aspect to the forecast? Seems the EURO is picking it up more than the GFS right now? Thanks so much. Regardless of what happened this weekend, I still say the euro...euro is usually deadly with southern stream energy, GFS always has a SE biased IMO.. As for timing, If this is gonna happen, and yes.. It's still a big IF, now that the players have taken the field so to speak, I would think by this afternoons euro, or the 00z suites tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Regardless of what happened this weekend, I still say the euro...euro is usually deadly with southern stream energy, GFS always has a SE biased IMO.. As for timing, If this is gonna happen, and yes.. It's still a big IF, now that the players have taken the field so to speak, I would think by this afternoons euro, or the 00z suites tonight And with a large NW lean on the EURO ensembles... the 12z EURO should be further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The Northern stream energy over SE Canada is further North on this run of the GFS which is allowing for higher heights along the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 We're more amped up this run but with the energy digging all the way to Mexico City I just don't see how it could possibly eject all that energy fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Weak and way OTS. The Northern stream energy helps to punt it offshore quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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