February 2016 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for February 2016

 

Scoring is based on values in the countdown located two posts up from this one.

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS___clas ___ ORD_ATL_IAH____exp ____ TOTALS

 

Midlo Snow Maker ___________96 _ 82 _ 82 ____ 260 _____58 _ 94 _ 40 ____ 192 _____ 452

RodneyS __________________ 90 _ 66 _ 56 ____ 212 _____36 _ 82 _ 88 ____ 206 _____ 418

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 96 _ 70 _ 52 ____ 218 _____78 _ 64 _ 40 ____ 182 _____ 400

dmillz25 ___________________ 94 _ 72 _ 64 ____ 230 _____86 _ 54 _ 20 ____ 160 _____ 390

blazess556 _________________92 _ 74 _ 60 ____ 226 _____34 _ 78 _ 34 ____ 146 _____ 372

wxdude64 __________________98 _ 70 _ 64 ____ 232 _____30 _ 74 _ 30 ____ 134 _____ 366

Rjay ______________________ 98 _ 72 _ 60 ____ 230 _____46 _ 54 _ 26 ____ 126 _____ 356

 

Normal ____________________82 _ 52 _ 40 ____ 174 _____46 _ 74 _ 46 ____ 166 _____ 340

 

SD _______________________ 98 _ 62 _ 40 ____ 200 _____26 _ 74 _ 36 ____ 136 _____ 336

wxallannj __________________ 88 _ 34 _ 32 ____ 154 _____26 _ 86 _ 54 ____ 166 _____ 320

ksammut __________________100 _ 72 _ 66____ 238 _____08 _ 58 _ 12 ____ 078 _____ 316

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 78 _ 68 _ 60 ____ 206 _____38 _ 54 _ 16 ____ 108 _____ 314

BKviking ___________________90 _ 78 _ 44 ____ 212 _____42 _ 48 _ 12 ____ 102 _____ 314

 

Consensus ________________ 90 _ 66 _ 52 ____ 208 _____26 _ 54 _ 26 ____ 106 _____ 314

 

Mallow ____________________ 68 _ 66 _ 70____ 204 _____40 _ 38 _ 26 ____ 104 _____ 308

Damage in Tolland ___________96 _ 62 _ 40 ____ 198_____06 _ 64 _ 24 ____ 094 _____ 292

debeaches _________________ 50 _ 78 _ 76 ____ 204_____00 _ 42 _ 46 ____ 088 _____ 292

Tom ______________________ 66 _ 40 _ 30 ____ 136 _____12 _ 50 _ 38 ____ 100 _____ 236

Maxim _____________________62 _ 42 _ 60 ____ 164 _____06 _ 44 _ 00 ____ 050 _____ 214

Stebo _____________________ 58 _ 34 _ 24 ____ 116 _____00 _ 30 _ 36 ____ 066 _____ 182

OHweather _________________62 _ 42 _ 32 ____ 136 _____00 _ 40 _ 06 ____ 046 _____ 182

Tenman Johnson ____________ 62 _ 32 _ 40 ____ 134 _____06 _ 34 _ 06 ____ 046 _____ 180

Isotherm ___________________ 42 _ 22 _ 20 ____ 084 _____00 _ 54 _ 16 ____ 070 _____ 154

Roger Smith ________________ 42 _ 22 _ 20 ____ 084 _____00 _ 48 _ 14 ____ 062 _____ 146

H2OTown_Wx ______________ 38 _ 12 _ 06 ____ 056 _____00 _ 44 _ 18 ____ 062 _____ 118

______________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Final scoring for western contest Feb 2016

 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DEN_PHX_SEA __ TOTALS ___ (all nine Feb, rank)

 

Tenman Johnson ____________37 _ 30 _ 60 ____ 127 ____________ 307 (16)

wxallannj __________________ 00 _ 26 _ 72 _____ 98 ____________ 418 (5)

Damage in Tolland ___________27 _ 00 _ 60 _____ 87 ____________379 (11)

dmillz25 ___________________ 17 _ 00 _ 70 _____ 87 ____________477 (2)

Midlo Snow Maker ___________ 13 _ 09 _ 64 _____ 86 ____________538 (1)

OHweather _________________00 _ 05 _ 70 _____ 75 ____________257 (19)

BKviking ___________________05 _ 00 _ 70 _____ 75 ____________389 (9)

Mallow ____________________ 00 _ 09 _ 62 _____ 71 ____________379 (10)

debeaches _________________ 00 _ 00 _ 68 _____ 68 ____________360 (14)

Isotherm ___________________00 _ 00 _ 62 _____ 62 ____________ 216 (21)

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 00 _ 00 _ 60 _____ 60 ____________ 374 (13)

Maxim ____________________ 00 _ 00 _ 60 _____ 60 ____________ 274 (18)

Rjay ______________________ 00 _ 00 _ 60 _____ 60 ____________416 (6)t

 

Consensus ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 60 _____ 60 ____________ 374 (13-t)

 

H2OTown_Wx ______________ 19 _ 03 _ 36 _____ 58 ____________176 (22)

Tom ______________________ 05 _ 07 _ 42 _____ 54 ____________290 (17)

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 01 _ 00 _ 50 _____ 51 ____________ 451 (4)

wxdude64 __________________00 _ 00 _ 48 _____ 48 ____________414 (8)

RodneyS __________________ 00 _ 00 _ 48 _____ 48 ____________ 466 (3)

blazess556 _________________00 _ 00 _ 44 _____ 44 ____________416 (6)t

Roger Smith ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 40 _____ 40 ___________ 186 (23)

SD _______________________ 00 _ 00 _ 40 _____ 40 ____________376 (12)

Stebo _____________________15 _ 14 _ 10 _____ 39 ____________ 221 (20)

 

Normal ____________________ 00 _ 00 _ 20 _____ 20 ___________ 360 (14)

 

ksammut ___________________00 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 02 ___________ 318 (15)

_______________________________________________________________________________

[Maxim]

Gonna be hard for ORD to experience anywhere near record cold without a decent snowpack. The GFS was way overdone with the cold, has been all season long (12z EURO paints a completely different picture in the long range). Will more than likely modify once it gets out of fantasy range.

[Damage In Tolland]

Every station in the East will finish AN for the month with the weekend torch and torch middle of the week...so there's going to be some big changes this month in leaderboard.

[Roger Smith]

Well on today's calculations, the end of month values do come up slightly for NYC, BOS, ORD and ATL, and it's mainly due to the position after the seven days of the NWS rather than any change in contribution from the 28th-29th which still appear capable of producing daily anomalies of -10 to -15. If that cold is more subdued at show time then the anomalies will end up closer to the 27th values.

[Roger Smith]

--- --- <<< Updated Annual Scoring (Jan-Feb 2016) >>> --- ---

 

 

Note that starting this year, the former "classic" three are labelled eastern and the former "expanded" three are labelled central. This brings them into better relation to the western three. Contests will continue to be separated out by the combined eastern-central and the western. Best scores are explained at bottom of table.

 

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___ TOTAL ___ Best scores

 

01 Midlo Snow Maker __ 152 _ 156 _ 138 __ 446 ___ 146 _ 172 _ 106 __ 424 ____ 870 ____ 011010 . 1 . 0 __ Feb

 

02 wxdude64 _________172 _ 142 _ 104 __ 418 ___ 114 _ 172 _ 116 __ 402 ____ 820 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

03 hudsonvalley21 ____ 168 _ 144 _ 098 __ 410 ___ 170 _ 130 _ 102 __ 402 ____ 812 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

04 blazess556 ________148 _ 154 _ 114 __ 416 ___ 090 _ 168 _ 112 __ 370 ____ 786 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

05 BKviking __________140 _ 162 _ 096 __ 398 ___ 140 _ 144 __ 94 __ 378 ____ 776 ____ 000100 . 0 . 1 __ Jan

06 wxallannj _________ 122 _ 132 _ 096 __ 350 ___ 124 _ 150 _ 144 __ 418 ____ 768 ____ 010100 . 0 . 0

07 RodneyS _________ 188 _ 116 _ 082 __ 386 ___ 098 _ 152 _ 124 __ 374 ____ 760 ____ 100001 . 0 . 1

 

07 Normal ___________ 160 _ 114 __ 70 __ 344 ___ 128 _ 156 _ 132 __ 416 ____ 760 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

08 dmillz25 __________ 192 _ 116 __ 74 __ 380 ___ 142 _ 142 __ 94 __ 378 ____ 758 ____ 100100 . 0 . 0

09 DonSutherland.1 ___ 166 _ 128 __ 98 __ 392 ___ 116 _ 154 __ 94 __ 364 ____ 756 ____ 000010 . 0 . 0

 

10 Consensus ________178 _ 126 __ 78 __ 382 ___ 104 _ 152 _ 110 __ 366 ____ 748 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

10 SD ______________ 146 _ 154 __ 90 __ 390 ___ 108 _ 136 _ 102 __ 346 ____ 736 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

11 Rjay _____________ 196 _ 104 __ 60 __ 360 ___ 118 _ 142 _ 110 __ 370 ____ 730 ____ 100000 . 0 . 0

12 Mallow ___________ 120 _ 154 _ 130 __ 404 ___ 114 __ 98 _ 112 __ 324 ____ 728 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

13 ksammut _________ 188 _ 132 __ 86 __ 406 ____ 74 _ 136 __ 96 __ 306 ____ 712 ____ 100000 . 0 . 0

14 Damage in Tolland __172 _ 122 __ 60 __ 354 ____ 88 _ 156 _ 100 __ 344 ____ 698 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

15 Stebo ____________ 146 __ 92 __ 58 __ 296 ____ 90 _ 128 _ 120 __ 338 ____ 634 ____ 000000 . 0 . 1

16 OHWeather _______ 120 _ 120 __ 84 __ 324 ____ 58 _ 128 __ 80 __ 266 ____ 590 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

17 Tenman Johnson ___160 __ 74 __ 50 __ 284 ____ 68 _ 132 _ 100 __ 300 ____ 584 ____ 100000 . 0 . 0

18 Roger Smith _______140 __ 64 __ 26 __ 230 ____ 72 _ 146 __ 98 __ 316 ____ 546 ____ 100000 . 0 . 0

19 H2OTown_Wx _____ 134 __ 55 __ 20 __ 209 ____ 80 _ 130 __ 96 __ 306 ____ 515 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

20 Maxim _____________62 __ 90 _ 150 __ 302 ____ 24 __ 96 __ 84 __ 204 ____ 506 ____ 001000 . 0 . 0

21 Isotherm __________132 __ 50 __ 20 __ 202 ____ 62 _ 132 __ 94 __ 288 ____ 490 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

22 debeaches _________ 88 _ 104 __ 90 __ 282 ____ 60 __ 52 __ 92 __ 204 ____ 486 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

23 Tom _____________ 130 __ 64 __ 42 __ 236 ____ 46 __ 94 __ 96 __ 236 ____ 472 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

24 nzucker* ___________ 66 __ 90 __ 70 __ 226 ____ 62 __ 92 __ 73 __ 227 ____ 453 ____ 000000 . 1 . 0

25 Daniel Boone*_______ 96 __ 38 __ 20 __ 154 ____ 78 __ 86 __ 72 __ 236 ____ 390 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

26 snowweenie*________ 60 __ 86 __ 10 __ 156 ____ 32 __ 98 __ 96 __ 226 ____ 382 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

27 snoski14*___________ 86 __ 36 __ 10 __ 132 ____ 64 __ 78 __ 64 __ 206 ____ 338 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

____________________________________________________________

(best score code -- first six numbers refer to six stations, next two numbers are high scores for eastern and central three, then letters for months)

 

* missed one month (in each case, February)

[Roger Smith]

Updated Annual Scoring (Jan-Feb 2016) for western and for all nine contests

 

 

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTALS ___ best scores _____ All Nine Totals __ best scores

 

 

01 Damage in Tolland _____ 119 __ 80 _ 156 _____ 355 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1053 (= 7)

02 Tenman Johnson _______ 95 _ 124 _ 106 _____ 325 ________ 1 1 0 _ Feb ____ 909 (=13)

03 dmillz25 _______________93 __ 66 _ 164 _____ 323 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1081 (= 5)

04 BKViking ______________ 85 __ 72 _ 162 _____ 319 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1095 (= 3)

05 wxdude64 _____________ 78 __ 92 _ 148 _____ 318 ________ 0 0 1 _ Jan ___ 1138 (= 2) ___ JAN

06t wxallannj ______________54 _ 114 _ 148 _____ 316 ________ 0 0 1 ________ 1046 (= 8t)

06t Rjay _________________ 78 __ 94 _ 144 _____ 316 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1046 (= 8t)

 

06t Consensus ____________ 72 __ 94 _ 150 _____ 316 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1064 (= 6)

 

08 Mallow ________________88 __ 71 _ 146 _____ 305 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1033 (=11)

09 Midlo Snow Maker_______111 __ 81 _ 112 _____ 304 ________ 1 0 0 ________ 1174 (= 1) ___ FEB

10 DonSutherland.1 ________86 __ 70 _ 148 _____ 304 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1060 (= 6)

11 Isotherm ______________ 52 __ 94 _ 150 _____ 296 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 786 (=19)

12 H2OTown__Wx _________95 __ 68 _ 132 _____ 295 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 810 (=18)

13 Tom __________________63 __ 97 _ 130 _____ 288 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 762 (=22)

14 debeaches ____________ 84 __ 66 _ 132 _____ 282 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 768 (=21)

15 OHweather ____________ 18 __ 99 _ 164 _____ 281 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 871 (=16)

16 hudsonvalley21 _________73 __ 96 _ 110 _____ 279 ________ 0 1 0 ________ 1091 (= 4)

17 stebo _________________73 __ 92 __ 96 _____ 261 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 895 (=14)

18 snoski14* _____________ 88 __ 96 __ 86 _____ 270 ________ 0 1 0 _ Jan _____608 (=27)

19 SD ___________________48 __ 94 _ 126 _____ 268 ________ 0 0 0 _________1004 (=12)

20 Maxim ________________38 __ 74 _ 154 _____ 266 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 772 (=20)

21 snowweenie* ___________92 __ 70 __ 94 _____ 256 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 638 (=26)

 

22 Normal _______________ 78 __ 86 __ 86 _____ 250 ________ 0 0 0 _________1010 (=12)

 

22 Daniel Boone* __________70 __ 92 __ 90 _____ 252 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 642 (=25)

23 blazess556 ____________ 22 __ 90 _ 136 _____ 248 ________ 0 0 0 _________1034 (=10)

24 nzucker*_______________90 __ 68 __ 49 _____ 207 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 660 (=24)

25 Roger Smith ___________ 38 __ 84 __ 56 _____ 178 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 724 (=23)

26 RodneyS ______________ 00 __ 34 __ 98 _____ 132 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 892 (=15)

27 ksammut ______________ 18 __ 54 __ 38 _____ 110 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 822 (=17)

_______________________________________________________________________

 

* missed one month (in each case, February)

 

best scores for the three stations, months in red ... and best scores for all nine shown for each month in green.

[Roger Smith]

Four Seasons Awards 2015-16 ... Final Standings for Winter 2015-16

 

 

These total scores from Dec 2015, Jan and Feb 2016 (with slight adjustments expected) determine points awarded in the Four Seasons competition. To qualify, a forecaster must forecast all three months. It's ten points to the winner, seven for second place, and counting down from there until reaching 8th, 9th and 10th place which all get one point. Normal and Consensus are scored but then ignored in terms of points for lower-finishing forecasters.

 

There are three separate contests within this section, the "main" contest (six locations), the western contest, and for all nine. The table is arranged so that scores are in order for the main contest, they may be in different orders for the other two.

 

 

FORECASTER ___ Main contest total score __ Points ______ Western total __ Points _____ All Nine __ Points

 

Midlo Snow Maker _____________996 _____ 10____________ 480 _______ -- __________ 1476 ____ 6

DonSutherland.1 ______________ 960 ______ 7 ____________ 512 _______ -- __________ 1472 ____ 5

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 956 ______ 7 ____________ 503 _______ -- __________ 1459 ____ 3

wxallannj ____________________ 929 ______ 5 ____________ 524 _______ 1 __________ 1453 ____ 2

Mallow ______________________ 926 ______ 4 ____________ 507 _______ -- __________ 1433 ____ 1

dmillz25 _____________________ 918 ______ 3 ____________ 595 ______ 10 __________ 1513 ___ 10

ksammut ____________________ 916 ______ 2 ____________ 278 _______ -- __________ 1194 ____ --

RodneyS ____________________ 914 ______ 1 ____________ 356 _______ -- __________ 1270 ____ --

Damage in Tolland ____________ 905 ______ 1 ____________ 555 _______ 5 __________ 1460 ____ 4

Rjay ________________________897 ______ 1 ____________ 590 _______ 7 __________ 1487 ____ 7

 

Consensus __________________ 898 _______ -- ___________ 568 _______ 5 __________ 1466 ____ 2

 

blazess556 __________________ 868 ______ -- ____________ 488 _______ -- __________ 1356 ____ 1

BKViking ____________________ 860 ______ -- ____________ 579 _______ 6 __________ 1439 ____ --

wxdude64 ___________________ 836 ______ -- ____________ 472 _______ -- __________ 1308 ____ --

SD _________________________821 ______ -- ____________ 524 _______ 1 __________ 1345 ____ 1

 

Normal _____________________ 760 ______ -- ____________ 466 _______ -- __________ 1226 ____ --

 

debeaches __________________ 738 ______ -- ____________ 502 _______ -- ___________1240 ____ --

Maxim ______________________720 ______ -- ____________ 492 _______ -- __________ 1212 ____ --

OHweather __________________723 ______ -- ____________ 523 _______ 1 __________ 1246 ____ --

Roger Smith _________________720 ______ -- ____________ 458 _______ -- __________ 1178 ____ --

Stebo ______________________ 707 ______ -- ____________ 517 _______ 2 ___________1224 ____ --

Isotherm ____________________ 665 ______ -- ____________ 544 _______ 3 ___________1209 ____ --

Tenman Johnson _____________ 615 ______ -- ____________325 _______ -- ____________ 940 ____ --

Tom _______________________ 540 ______ -- ____________ 548 _______ 4 ___________ 1088 ____ --

[Roger Smith]

Extreme Forecast Scoring (Jan-Feb 2016)

 

 

January provided only two extreme forecast winners, but February has picked up the pace with eight of nine qualifying (as we've seen in 2014 and 2015, almost two-thirds of the months have an extreme forecast either in first place, or else winning score was second most extreme).

 

 

 

Month __ Loc'n ____ Anomaly ____ Extreme fcst ___ 2nd most extreme ___ W-L decision

 

Jan ___ NYC ________ +1.9 _______ +4.5 Maxim ____ +2.0 wxallannj _____ W wxallannj L Maxim

Jan ___ BOS ________ +3.5 _______ +4.0 Maxim ____ +2.2 _____________ W (Maxim)

 

Feb ___ NYC ________ +2.4 _______ +3.5 debeaches _ +1.5 Midlo _______ W Midlo, L debeaches

Feb ___ BOS ________ +3.0 _______ +4.2 debeaches _ +2.1 Midlo _______ W Midlo, L debeaches

Feb ___ ORD ________ +2.7 _______ +2.0 dmillz25 ___ +1.6 ____________ W dmillz25

Feb ___ ATL _________+1.3 _______ +4.2 debeaches _ +1.0 Midlo _______ W Midlo, L debeaches

Feb ___ IAH _________ +2.7 _______ +2.1 RodneyS ___ +0.4 ___________ W RodneyS

Feb ___ DEN ________ +5.3 _______ +2.0 Tenman J ___+1.5 ___________ W Tenman Johnson

Feb ___ PHX ________ +6.0 _______ +2.0 Tenman J ___+1.2 ___________ W Tenman Johnson

Feb ___ SEA ________ +4.0 _______ +2.6 wxallannj ___ +2.5 ___________ W wxallannj

 

 

Updated forecaster records

 

Midlo Snow Maker ____3-0

wxallannj ___________ 2-0

Tenman Johnson _____2-0

RodneyS ___________ 1-0

dmillz25 ____________ 1-0

Maxim _____________ 1-1

debeaches __________ 0-3

 

 

(note: February confirmed scores are a few posts back now, the annual totals are also posted, and the winter portion of the four seasons contest can be seen above. Also the ongoing snowfall contest is regularly updated back in the thread. It will migrate to the March thread soon.

 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Breaking news ... all tables now final and confirmed, DEN climate summary has confirmed my estimate of +5.3 so only titles need editing (yay) ... congrats to Midlo Snow Maker and Tenman Johnson for their winning scores in the two contests. All annual and four seasons updates have been posted.

 

 

Now it's on to March.