February 2016 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

I always wonder if anyone reads this sentence or just makes sure they have the right place -- but whether you read it or not, have a great week enjoying your snow and pondering the mysteries of the El Nino February. And we'll go with the usual forecast challenge, temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010 for these nine locations:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

 

Deadline information ... we will now go to the contest standard deadlines for the rest of the year, unless there is some extraordinary development to change my thinking, and that means:

 

06z 1st or earlier __ no penalty (note that 06z 1st means 0100h EST Monday Feb 1st)

 

every hour to 18z 2nd __ 1% penalty every 2h (or portion) >> 18% net penalty by 18z Tuesday

 

every hour after that __ 1% penalty every hour (82 hours to forecast nullification at 04z 6th)

 

Good luck (or revealed skill)

[Tom]

Read it as the snow is melting fast, hoping for a rocking Feb.

 

DCA: -0.8

NYC: -0.6

BOS: -0.5

ORD: -1.7

ATL:  -1.2

IAH:  -0.4

DEN: +0.4

PHX: +0.7

SEA: +1.1

[Rjay]

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +1.0

BOS: +1.0

ORD: 0.0

ATL: -1.0

IAH: -1.0

DEN: 0.0

PHX: -1.0

SEA: +2.0

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +1.1
NYC: +0.9
BOS: +0.6
ORD: +1.6
ATL: -0.5
IAH: -0.3
DEN: +0.1
PHX: -0.7
SEA: +1.5 

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA: +0.7

NYC: +0.5
BOS: 0.0
ORD: -2.0
ATL: -0.5
IAH: -1.1
DEN: +1.5
PHX: -0.5
SEA: +2.0

[dmillz25]

DCA: +0.6

NYC: +1.0

BOS: +1.2

ORD: +2.0

ATL: -1.0

IAH: -1.3

DEN: +1.0

PHX: -0.5

SEA: +2.5

[Mallow]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-1.2 __ -0.7 __ +1.0 ______ -0.9 __ -2.1 __ -1.4 ______ -1.5 _ +1.2 __ +1.2

 

 

EDIT (1/31):
 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-0.7 __ +0.7 __ +1.5 _____ -0.3 __ -1.8 __ -1.0 ______ -1.5 __ +0.9 __ +2.1

[Prestige Worldwide]

DCA +3.4

NYC +3.5

BOS +4.2

ORD -2.3

ATL +4.2

IAH 0

DEN -1.2

PHX -1.2

SEA +2.4

[wxallannj]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+0.3    -0.9       -0.4            -1.0       +0.6    +0.4         -1.5       +1.8     +2.6   

[donsutherland1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-0.2 __ +0.8 __ +1.0 ______ -0.4 __ -1.0 __ -1.5 ______ -2.0 _ -0.6 __ +2.0

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.0         0.5       0.0             -1.0       0.0       -0.5             0.0        -0.5        1.0 

[bkviking]

DCA: +0.4

NYC: +1.3

BOS: +0.2

ORD: -0.2

ATL: -1.3

IAH: -1.7

DEN: +0.4

PHX: -1.8

SEA: +2.5

[ksammut]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+0.9___+1_____+1.3_____-1.9____-0.8__-1.7______-4.1____-1.7__-0.9

[wxdude64]

DCA  +1.0

NYC  +0.9

BOS  +1.2

ORD  -0.8

ATL    0.0

IAH   -0.8

DEN  -2.5

PHX  -1.5

SEA  +1.4

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+0.4    +0.7       +0.8         -0.5       +0.4    +2.1           -2.4       -0.8     +1.4   

[Roger Smith]

-2.0 __ -1.5 __ -1.0 ____ -4.5 __ -1.3 __ --1.6 _____ --1.5 __ 0.0 __ +1.0

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA: +1.1

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +2.1

ORD: +0.6

ATL: +1.0

IAH: -0.3

DEN: +0.8

PHX: +0.9

SEA: +2.2

[H2Otown_WX]

DCA...NYC....BOS.... ...ORD...IAH...ATL... ...PHX...DEN...SEA

 

-2.2...-2.0...-1.7... ...   -3.5...-1.4....-1.5....  ...+0.3...+1.1...+0.8

[Isotherm]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

-2.0      -1.5      -1.0          -4.0      -1.0       -1.5          -1.3       0.0      +2.1

[blazess556]

DCA  +1.3

NYC  +1.1

BOS  +1.0

ORD  -0.6

ATL    0.2

IAH   -0.6

DEN  -2.3

PHX  -1.6

SEA  +1.2

[Stebo]

DCA: -1.2

NYC: -0.9

BOS: -0.8

ORD: -2.7

ATL:  -2.2

IAH:  -0.5

DEN: +0.9

PHX: +1.2

SEA: -0.5

[OHweather]

DCA  -1.0

NYC  -0.5

BOS  -0.4

ORD  -3.5

ATL    -1.7

IAH   -2.0

DEN  -1.6

PHX  +0.5

SEA  +2.5

[Maxim]

DCA: -1.0

NYC: -0.5

BOS: +1.0

ORD: -2.0

ATL: -1.5

IAH   -2.5

DEN  -3.0

PHX  -1.5

SEA  +2.0

[WEATHER53]

Dca -1

NYC -1

Bos 0.0

Chicago -2

Atlanta -2

Houston -2

Western all +2

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts -- February 2016

 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

debeaches _________________ +3.4 _ +3.5 _ +4.2 __ --2.3 _ +4.2 __ 0.0 ___ --1.2 _ --1.2 _ +2.4

blazess556 _________________+1.3 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 __ --0.6 _ +0.2 _ --0.6 ___ --2.3 _ --1.6 _ +1.2

Midlo Snow Maker ___________ +1.1 _ +1.5 _ +2.1 __ +0.6 _ +1.0 _ --0.3 ___ +0.8 _ +0.9 _ +2.2

hudsonvalley21 _____________ +1.1 _ +0.9 _ +0.6 __ +1.6 _ --0.5 _ --0.3 ___ +0.1 _ --0.7 _ +1.5

Rjay ______________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ 0.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0 ____ 0.0 _ --1.0 _ +2.0

wxdude64 _________________ +1.0 _ +0.9 _ +1.2 __ --0.8 __ 0.0 _ --0.8 ___ --2.5 _ --1.5 _ +1.4

SD _______________________ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 __ --1.0 __ 0.0 _ --0.5 ____ 0.0 _ --0.5 _ +1.0

ksammut __________________ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.3 __ --1.9 _ --0.8 _ --1.7 ___ --4.1 _ --1.7 _ --0.9

Damage in Tolland ___________+0.7 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 __ --2.0 _ --0.5 _ --1.1 ___ +1.5 _ --0.5 _ +2.0

dmillz25 ___________________ +0.6 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 __ +2.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.3 ___ +1.0 _ --0.5 _ +2.5

BKviking ___________________+0.4 _ +1.3 _ +0.2 __ --0.2 _ --1.3 _ --1.7 ___ +0.4 _ --1.8 _ +2.5

RodneyS __________________ +0.4 _ +0.7 _ +0.8 __ --0.5 _ +0.4 _ +2.1 ___ --2.4 _ --0.8 _ +1.4

 

Consensus ________________ +0.4 _ +0.7 _ +0.6 __ --1.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0 ___ --1.2 _ --0.6 _ +2.0

 

wxallannj __________________ +0.3 _ --0.9 _ --0.4 __ --1.0 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 ___ --1.5 _ +1.8 _ +2.6

 

Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

DonSutherland.1 ____________ --0.2 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ --0.4 _ --1.0 _ --1.5 ___ --2.0 _ --0.6 _ +2.0

Mallow ____________________ --0.7 _ +0.7 _ +1.5 __ --0.3 _ --1.8 _ --1.0 ___ --1.5 _ +0.9 _ +2.1

Tom ______________________ --0.8 _ --0.6 _ --0.5 __ --1.7 _ --1.2 _ --0.4 ___ +0.4 _ +0.7 _ +1.1

Maxim ____________________ --1.0 _ --0.5 _ +1.0 __ --2.0 _ --1.5 _ --2.5 ___ --3.0 _ --1.5 _ +2.0

OHweather ________________  --1.0 _ --0.5 _ --0.4 __ --3.5 _ --1.7 _ --2.0 ___ --1.6 _ +0.5 _ +2.5

Tenman Johnson ____________ --1.0 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 __ --2.0 _ --2.0 _ --2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0

Stebo _____________________ --1.2 _ --0.9 _ --0.8 __ --2.7 _ --2.2 _ --0.5 ___ +0.9 _ +1.2 _ --0.5

Isotherm ___________________ --2.0 _ --1.5 _ --1.0 __ --4.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.5 ___ --1.3 __ 0.0 _ +2.1

Roger Smith ________________ --2.0 _ --1.5 _ --1.0 __ --4.5 _ --1.3 _ --1.6 ___ --1.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.0

H2OTown_Wx ______________ --2.2 _ --2.0 _ --1.7 __ --3.5 _ --1.5 _ --1.4 ___ +1.1 _ +0.3 _ +0.8

_______________________________________________________________________________

 

With 23 (all on time) forecasts, consensus is the 12th ranked value in each case. Note that I have color coded the highest and lowest forecasts for each location.

[Roger Smith]

Snowfall Contest Table 2, sum of errors

 

This table takes the data from the original table posted in the January contest thread, and converts it to current errors or differences between your forecasts and the totals to date. Errors in red show underpredictions that can only increase whereas other (over-predictions at present) errors can only decrease. This table is continued from the similar table started in the January thread which will be not be maintained now that updates are being posted here. The actual forecasts can be seen in another table in the January thread. This table shows only errors to date.

 

Forecasters are now placed in order of total error to date ... watch for updates.

 

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA __ NYC __ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ TOTAL error

 

hudsonvalley21________ 0.8" _ 10.4" __ 5.7" ___ 0.3" _ 1.6" _ 0.0" ____ 7.2" _ 0.0" _ 2.9" ____ 28.9 (11.5)

DonSutherland.1 _______3.1" __ 7.8" _ 11.1" ___ 2.0" _ 3.6" _ 0.1" ____ 3.5" _ 0.0" _ 4.5" ____ 35.7 (9.8)

wxallannj _____________6.2" __ 8.8" __ 2.1" ___ 4.5" _ 1.1" _ 0.0" ____ 9.2" _ 0.0" _ 7.8" ____ 39.7 (15.0)

blazess556 ___________ 4.9" __ 8.2" __ 7.6" ___ 0.5" _ 1.9" _ 0.3" ___ 17.2" _ 0.0" _ 6.0" ____ 46.6 (13.6)

Maxim _______________ 2.9" __ 6.2" __ 9.6" ___ 1.5" _ 2.2" _ 0.5" ___ 21.2" _ 0.0" _ 7.0" ____ 51.1 (9.1)

..

Consensus ___________ 1.1" __ 7.0" _ 13.4" ___ 0.6" _ 3.7" _ 0.5" ___ 19.3" _ 0.0" _ 5.6" ____ 51.2 (8.1)
..

H2OTown_Wx _________4.6" __ 2.8" __ 7.8" __ 15.6" _ 9.3" _ 3.3" ____ 5.2" _ 0.0" _ 3.7" ____ 52.3 (7.4)

Roger Smith _________ 10.2" _ 12.7" _ 10.1" ___ 0.5" _ 0.0" _ 0.2" ___ 17.2" _ 0.0" _ 6.0" ____ 56.9 (22.9)

Mallow _______________4.1" __ 1.2" _ 15.6" ___ 0.5" _ 4.5" _ 0.4" ___ 29.2" _ 0.0" _ 4.2" ____ 59.7 (1.2)

..

1981-2010 Normals ____ 6.5" __ 5.4" _ 18.4" ___ 8.8" _ 2.6" _ 0.1" ___ 15.0" _ 0.0" _ 6.8* ____ 63.6 (11.9)

..

Isotherm ____________ 10.3" __ 6.2" _ 18.2" ___ 5.1" _ 3.2" _ 0.1" ___ 18.3" _ 0.0" _ 4.3" ____ 65.7 (5.1)

Tenman Johnson ______ 9.9" _ 15.2" __ 2.4" ___ 8.5" _ 3.7" _ 1.0" ___ 17.2" _ 1.0" _ 8.0" ____ 66.9 (36.0)

Midlo Snow Maker _____ 0.9" __ 2.8" _ 23.6" __ 10.5" _ 4.7" _ 1.9" ___ 17.2" _ 0.0" _ 5.6" ____ 67.2 (0.9)

wxdude64 ____________0,1" __ 8.5" __ 5.4" ___ 3.9" _10.9" _ 2.1" ___ 28.5" _ 0.0" _ 8.4" ____ 67.8 (12.4)

Damage in Tolland ____ 13.9" _ 15.2" __ 3.4" ___ 0.5" _ 3.7" _ 0.3" ___ 27.2" _ 0.1"_ 4.0" ____ 68.3 (32.5)

ksammut _____________ 7.4" _10.2" _ 16.6" __ 10.5" _ 0.2" _ 0.0" ___ 20.2" _ 0.0" _ 4.0" ____ 69.1 (17.8)

RodneyS ____________21.8" _ 21.2" _ 15.4" ___ 7.5" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ____6.2" _ 0.0" _ 3.5" ____ 75.9 (66.2)

OHweather __________ 13.1" __ 5.8" _ 20.6" ___ 3.5" _ 4.2" _ 0.0" ___ 26.2" _ 0.0" _ 4.0" ____77.4

Stebo _______________15.1" _ 10.8" _ 21.6" ___ 4.5" _ 4.7" _ 1.5" ___ 13.2" _ 0.0" _11.0"____82.4

SD _________________10.9" _ 11.2" _ 19.6" ___ 7.5" _ 2.7" _ 1.0" ___ 26.2" _ 1.0"_12.0" ____ 92.1 (22.1)

BKViking _____________1.4" __ 6.6" _ 33.1" ___ 8.8" _ 9.7" _ 0.5" ___ 36.7" _ 0.4" _ 5.6" ___ 102.8 (10.2)

Tom ________________19.3" _ 21.6" _ 23.7" ___ 3.7" _ 7.8" _ 0.9" ___ 26.1" _ 0.0" _ 5.6" ___ 108.7

Rjay ________________13.1" _ 15.8" _ 32.6" ___ 7.5" _ 1.2" _ 0.0" ___ 31.2" _ 0.0" _10.0"___ 111.4 (7.5)

dmillz25 ______________4.8" _ 25.7" _ 49.2" ___ 6.8" _ 6.4" _ 0.5" ___ 30.3" _ 0.0" _ 7.7" ___ 131.4

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Red numbers are errors that can only increase now. Green numbers are within 5.0 inches of becoming red numbers. This was not applied to IAH or PHX. Orange numbers are right on the current totals. Black numbers are basically "safe" predictions that can reduce by more than five inches before being surpassed by the actual totals.

 

Totals show the current sum of errors and (in brackets) the total errors that are not reducible from here. Denver and Boston often see 15-30 inches of snow in March-April so the forecasts worth betting on would be those with 5-15 inches left to go in DCA-NYC-ORD and 15-30 for BOS-DEN. The chances for further snow in ATL would be rather low and IAH has not really come close to a snowfall this winter, PHX of course rarely sees snow and SEA so far has been shut out.

 

(edit Mar 2 at 09z _ ORD added 1.7" on Feb 24th and 0.1" snuck into BOS totals on 19th. A further 1.0" was added to ORD on March 1st. That amount does not appear here; instead, the snowfall contest will now migrate to the March forecast thread. What you see here is the contest situation at the end of February.)

 

 

Latest total snowfalls _____ 21.9" _ 31.2" _ 25.4"__ 27.5" __ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 38.8" _ 0.0" _ 0.0"(tr)

[Roger Smith]

First updates on how February is going so far ... snowfall updates will appear in the previous post related to the snowfall contest. (added 11th) The temperature anomaly values in the east are in free fall, check ATL.

 

_________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_______ (5d) _____ +9.8 _ +13.6 _ +15.1 ____ +7.4 __ +9.7 __ +1.6 ___ --11.0 __ --8.7 __ +0.6

_______ (8d) _____ +6.2 __ +9.3 __ +9.8 ____ +7.1 __ +5.0 __ --0.4 ____ --7.3 __ --3.8 __ +1.2

______ (10d) _____ +4.2 __ +7.3 __ +6.9 ____ +3.5 __ +1.0 __ --0.6 ____ --3.1 __ --0.6 __ +2.5

______ (12d) _____ +1.4 __ +4.1 __ +3.7 ____ +1.0 __ +1.0 __ +1.3 ____ --0.8 __ +1.4 __ +3.4

______ (13d) ______ 0.0 __ +2.2 __ +1.8 ____ --0.5 ___ 0.0 __ +1.5 ____ +0.3 __ +2.2 __ +3.4

 

______ (p20d) ____ --1.7 __ --0.2 __ +0.1 ____ --0.2 __ --0.1 __ +3.5 ____ +5.5 __ +5.7 __ +4.0

 

______ (p29d) ____ --2.6 __ --1.7 __ --1.5 ____ --2.0 __ --1.3 __ +2.7 ____ +5.0 __ +5.3 __ +4.8

 

(14th) _ Wild and crazy swings ahead for eastern cities with BOS predicted to hit 55 F on Tuesday after a low of -9 this morning breaking a record from 1934 by six degrees (it was also a record low -1 in Central Park blowing away the 2 F of 1916). The low point will come after Monday at about -2 anomalies then it's mostly upward for the rest of the seven day NWS forecast portion. Meanwhile PHX flirts with record highs every day (87 yesterday was one short of the 1957 record). The 12z GFS output for 21st to 29th has now shifted to a much colder look in the east than what I (think that I) saw yesterday on the 12z. In my discussion below with Isotherm, that had already begun to show up on yesterday's 18z run. So I have gone with a rather conservative -5 average for the nine days for the eastern time zone four and -6 for ORD, normal for IAH and continued very warm in the west, only SEA was changed there today and that was up 0.5.

 

Updates have now been posted for 8, 10, 12 and 13 days then a new post on Monday will count down to the 29th. This is the last edit to this post. Strap in and try not to scream.

 

It will be a few days before I post any provisional scores, but I have the excel table updated and checked. That means the table of forecasts is locked (no errors were found on posting the scores from entry posts and cross-checking the table). For your information, the top five scores on today's provisional values have changed considerably for the main contest, no change for the west except all lost ten points:

 

main contest (six locations) ... H2OTown_wx __ 466 ... Tom __ 452 ... Stebo ___ 446

... ... ... ... Isotherm __ 444 ... Roger Smith __ 438 

 

western contest (3 locations) .. Tenman J __ 115 ... wxallannj __ 83 ... damage, dmillz __ 74

... ... ... ... Midlo Snow Maker __ 73

 

Scores are rather low in general for the western contest on these projections. Everyone's forecasts are lower than the three provisionals so if I'm too high with those, everyone will improve. However, so far the trend is slightly in the other direction. Highest predictions for the three western sites are +2.0 DEN and PHX and +2.6 for SEA.

[Isotherm]

Would be surprised if those 19th provisional values are colder than the 29th final numbers for the East. The last week of the month is likely overestimated in terms of 850's given the 500mb evolution, but we'll see. The D10-15 ensembles are notorious for not detecting the magnitude of the signal.

 

Question: are those provisionals based upon the GEFS, EPS, or operational GFS?

[Roger Smith]

They are based on my subjective day by day estimates of anomalies on the operational GFS, in this case today's 12z. I forecast a lot on the weekly time scale so my estimates are probably as close as anyone else's on average but of course case by case there are likely to be disagreements. However, I also tend to run them a bit conservative as in "this may not be quite as big a cold spell as the 15 day GFS says" -- as for the seven-day projections, those are NWS forecasts straight off their website and adjusted to where I believe there can be midnight highs or lows that are not in the output, and taking into consideration the changes in daily normals going forward (a factor in late February as normals rise about 1 degree every second or third day).

 

I always consider the 8 to 16 day projections to be plus or minus 2 deg at least and I tend to hold off on posting even approximate scoring tables until we are near the 7 day cutoff (because then I can blame the NWS if I have to change them significantly ) If you were thinking that the western three could be even warmer than shown at end of month, I agree but once anomalies get past 5.0 the scores all change together and rather slowly because there's a reduced error reduction rate. I would say PHX off the guidance could be close to +6.5 and with DEN you never really know because one bad day on the model run and it can be way off, they run so far from normal in either direction. SEA won't go much higher than shown, too cloudy around here to boost temperatures any higher than the current +4 to +6 regime.

 

But anyway, like I said in the discussion, the 8-16 day approximations at this point took into account some fairly warm looking maps around days 9-10 and also the 29th looks warmish but that is 16 days out and may not mean much at all.

 

It seems likely that the western trainwreck is already a given but the main contest is very much up for grabs, the what-if leaderboard is nothing more than that, a what-if-I'm-right scoring summary. I rather hope you're right as my forecasts are colder than most.

 

Just so we know what this discussion was about (after I change the rows of predictions) these are the projections made this morning:

 

______ (p19d) ____ --0.7 __ +1.2 __ +0.7 ____ --0.2 __ --0.9 __ +3.8 ____ +5.0 __ +5.5 __ +4.0

 

______ (p29d) ____ +0.4 __ +1.4 __ +0.8 ____ --0.1 __ +0.8 __ +3.7 ____ +5.0 __ +5.3 __ +4.3

 

After I wrote all of the above, I checked the 18z GFS run and it certainly looks considerably colder after the 18th than what I saw on the 12z run. So if that trend continues the numbers above will definitely be revised downwards tomorrow (I will be updating daily now). The eastern three and Chicago would probably be 2 deg lower than shown above if 18z verified. ATL a bit colder, western also not quite as toasty but probably still above 4.0 for all three.

 

 

(just added now on 14th ... the colder trend you mentioned is even stronger on today's 12z GFS so now we have a much different outcome, see the edited post above. The countdown will continue tomorrow in a new post. I wonder what changes will follow.)

[Roger Smith]

The countdown now continues daily. The following table contains part of the previous one, removing the values from 8th, 12th, and 13th which you can review in the previous table.

 

_________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_______ (5d) _____ +9.8 _ +13.6 _ +15.1 ____ +7.4 __ +9.7 __ +1.6 ___ --11.0 __ --8.7 __ +0.6

______ (10d) _____ +4.2 __ +7.3 __ +6.9 ____ +3.5 __ +1.0 __ --0.6 ____ --3.1 __ --0.6 __ +2.5

______ (14d) _____ --1.4 ___ 0.0 __ --0.5 ____ --1.4 __ --0.6 __ +2.0 ____ +0.8 __ +2.5 __ +3.7

______ (15d) _____ --2.2 __ --0.7 __ --1.3 ____ --1.7 __ --0.8 __ +2.2 ____ +1.4 __ +2.9 __ +4.0

______ (16d) _____ --1.9 __ --0.1 __ --0.5 ____ --1.5 __ --0.5 __ +2.3 ____ +2.0 __ +3.4 __ +4.2

______ (17d) _____ --1.7 __ +0.2 ___ 0.0 ____ --1.5 __ --0.7 __ +2.3 ____ +2.8 __ +4.0 __ +4.7

______ (18d) _____ --1.9 __ --0.2 __ --0.2 ____ --1.1 __ --0.7 __ +2.3 ____ +3.9 __ +4.3 __ +4.6

______ (19d) _____ --2.1 __ --0.5 __ --0.4 ____ +0.1 __ --0.4 __ +3.0 ____ +4.5 __ +4.6 __ +4.4

______ (20d) _____ --1.4 __ +0.2 __ +0.3 ____ +1.0 ___ 0.0 __ +3.5 ____ +4.9 __ +4.9 __ +4.2

______ (21d) _____ --0.8 __ +0.9 __ +1.0 ____ +1.2 __ +0.6 __ +3.9 ____ +4.7 __ +5.1 __ +4.0

______ (22d) _____ --0.4 __ +1.2 __ +1.2 ____ +1.4 __ +1.1 __ +3.9 ____ +4.7 __ +5.2 __ +3.8

______ (23d) _____ --0.3 __ +1.2 __ +1.1 ____ +1.6 __ +1.4 __ +3.8 ____ +4.5 __ +5.2 __ +3.7

______ (24d) _____ +0.2 __ +1.6 __ +1.6 ____ +1.6 __ +1.5 __ +3.4 ____ +4.4 __ +5.1 __ +3.8

______ (25d) _____ +0.5 __ +2.0 __ +2.3 ____ +1.7 __ +1.2 __ +3.2 ____ +4.2 __ +5.2 __ +3.9

______ (26d) _____ +0.3 __ +1.8 __ +2.2 ____ +1.5 __ +1.0 __ +2.8 ____ +4.4 __ +5.4 __ +4.0

______ (27d) _____ +0.1 __ +1.6 __ +1.9 ____ +1.8 __ +0.8 __ +2.6 ____ +4.8 __ +5.6 __ +4.1

______ (28d) _____ +0.4 __ +1.8 __ +2.3 ____ +2.3 __ +0.9 __ +2.4 ____ +5.1 __ +5.7 __ +4.0

 

______ (29d) _____ +0.9 __ +2.4 __ +3.0 ____ +2.7 __ +1.3 __ +2.7 ____ +5.3 __ +6.0 __ +4.0

 

March 1st 1245h EST ... All nine locations final anomaly values are now confirmed as shown in red type above. Since late breaking DEN matched my overnight estimate, all scoring tables are final now.