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NESIS Ranking - Blizzard of 2016

dmb8021

By dmb8021,
in New York City Metro

NESIS Category  

108 members have voted

  1. 1. What NESIS category will the blizzard of 2016 receive?


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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

It's probably closer to the mark that some older storms would possibly be in that 15-20% greater category if measured

by todays standards. I guess a formal reanalysis of pre-80/90 snowfall totals would probably be needed to get a closer

representation of some past storms. 

Emphasis on *some*, because certainly not all.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Emphasis on *some*, because certainly not all.

 

You would have to determine which storms fit the criteria for an increase vs staying the same in the historical record.

 

It would be a fun project to do if enough data necessary for any readjustments was able to be retrieved.

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masomenos

masomenos

Posted
Posted

Measuring snowfall is definitely more art than science. If you put a gun to my head, I'd say I prefer the max depth method for record keeping and the 6 hr rule for gauging the immediate impacts on society. The NWS is not really in the business of keeping records--it's in the business to save property and lives, so the 6 hr rule prevails.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

I used to love to go to the national weather service office in Rockefeller Center and look at the daily almanacs from years ago...I would copy down information like highs lows snowfall etc...The original weather logs had hourly observations...I remember the early 1870's had obs every few hours...I wondered how they figured the max/min for the day...The December 1947 storm was officially 26.4" for many years...The 25.8" I think was from Battery Park...There have been big differences with snowfall amounts from Central Park and Battery Park daily records...One example is January 1893 had 17" of snow for the month in Central Park...The Battery had 17" for a storm that was 9" in Central Park...February 1894 had 20" in Central Park and 37" in Battery Park...1892-93 had 77" in Battery Park...50" in Central Park...

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

I used to love to go to the national weather service office in Rockefeller Center and look at the daily almanacs from years ago...I would copy down information like highs lows snowfall etc...The original weather logs had hourly observations...I remember the early 1870's had obs every few hours...I wondered how they figured the max/min for the day...The December 1947 storm was officially 26.4" for many years...The 25.8" I think was from Battery Park...There have been big differences with snowfall amounts from Central Park and Battery Park daily records...One example is January 1893 had 17" of snow for the month in Central Park...The Battery had 17" for a storm that was 9" in Central Park...February 1894 had 20" in Central Park and 37" in Battery Park...1892-93 had 77" in Battery Park...50" in Central Park...

I will be taking a close look at Battery Park records in the not too distant future.
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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

I will be taking a close look at Battery Park records in the not too distant future.

my first weather almanac had Battery park records...Temperatures were to the tenth of a degree...It all changed when Central Park became the official observation sight...I think some records like snowfalls were mixed together...I used to get the New York News Weather Almanac by J. Henry Weber every year...the 1970 edition top 25 snowfalls in NYC...

26.4" 12/26-27/1947

21.0" 3/12-14/1888

18.1" 3/7-9/1941

18.0" 12/26/1872

17.8" 2/17-18/1893

17.5" 2/4-7/1920

17.5" 1/22-24/1935

17.4" 2/3-4/1961

16.7" 12/19-20/1948....19.6" was recorded in Battery Park...

1948...

http://fultonhistory...cale - 6152.pdf

http://fultonhistory...cale - 6154.pdf

 

15.5" 2/12-14/1899

15.4" 3/16-18/1892

15.3" 2/9-10/1969

15.2" 12/11-12/1960

15.2" 2/25-27/1894

14.6" 1/13-15/1910

14.5" 3/1-2/1914

14.5" 3/3-4/1960

14.0" 12/26-27/1890

14.0" 2/12-13/1894

13.7" 12/21-22/1959

13.5" 3/18/19/1956

13.0" 1/1-2/1877

12.9" 12/5-7/1886

12.5" 2/7/1967

12.5" 1/12-14/1964

12.5" 12/20/1921

12.2" 12/14-15/1916

snowfalls in red have different amounts than Central Park's official totals...they could have come from Battery Park or in lower Manhattan...

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

Uncle, in the first list, I think you mean 2/3-4/1961, not 3/3-4/1961. The major snowfall was in February 1961, not March. However, the previous year did have a huge March snowfall on the same dates (3/3-4/1960), so it is confusing.

thanks...I fixed it...from 3/60 to 2/61 NYC got four blizzards and one major hurricane...Quite a year...plus I won the batting title in my little league in 1960 but I digress...1910 had 10" in Central Park and 14" in lower Manhattan...

1910 storm from the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-15/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-15/ed-1/seq-2/

1910 from the NY Sun...

http://chroniclingam...-15/ed-1/seq-1/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/55521579

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/55521587

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/55521597

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JBG

JBG

Posted
Posted

For some reason Central Park records show only 6" for that same storm. Given that Rutherford is less than 10 miles away, I'm thinking bs on that NJ record. :lol:

I looked at New York Times articles for the day. They did not have accumulation records but the coverage seems consistent with more like 20" than 6" in terms of impact.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Where do you get that figure from? From reading the article the storm seemed disastrous.

 

The original observation documents are available to me.  Hopefully we can get the data out there to the public at some point.

 

As we all know, sometimes the circumstances make the storm.   Maybe a bit more so in today's world than in the past, but probably still true to some extent back then.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

a report the Sun says Patterson NJ had 12" by midnight...

 

COOP reports indicate generally 12-15" in the nearby NE NJ burbs.  Amounts of 2-2 1/2 feet were located further NW, likely where no mixing occurred.  It appears the Rutherford report may be a typo, which was meant to read Charlottesburg (how Charlottesburg became Rutherford, I have no clue).  A friend of mine is looking into fixing it.

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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted

COOP reports indicate generally 12-15" in the nearby NE NJ burbs.  Amounts of 2-2 1/2 feet were located further NW, likely where no mixing occurred.  It appears the Rutherford report may be a typo, which was meant to read Charlottesburg (how Charlottesburg became Rutherford, I have no clue).  A friend of mine is looking into fixing it.

look at the map i just posted. charlotteburg reservoir got 32" well NW of nyc

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Jan. 2016 was a different beast. We had confirmed (official stations) plus a ton of spotter totals in the 28"-34" range in the middle of the 5 boroughs. For LGA to report 28" and JFK to report 30" is incredible, since both these stations are notorious for their low measurements.

 

I personally measured 32" in most spots, but went with LGA's official 28.1" in my seasonal total.

The photos I saw from Long Beach and around the area suggest to me 24" fell at least. The closest report (Island Park) was 24", and JFK's a 20 minute drive from LB. Merrick/Bellmore had 26-28" also I think. Radar suggests to me there may have been a little less around LB, but not more than a few inches. 

 

The only storm I can remember that might have been close was Jan 1996, and I was pretty young then so I can't compare that accurately. PDII, Dec 2010, etc were definitely less there. 

 

All in all, what an incredible storm. And yes, I'm beyond pissed I wasn't there. I would've made the flight back in an instant if it was clear more than 24 hours out that this would be big for NYC-I put my chips on a near miss or a brush based on what happened last January and the Feb 2010 disaster. The LB Boardwalk videos I saw from the day of the storm were just epic. It more than makes it even from the close shaves with the Feb 2013 and Jan 2015 storms that nailed the Boston area. 

 

I agree that one of these years, likely sooner than later the long term trend for these storms will diminish for the NYC area-hopefully I can be home to witness one or two more of these before it happens. 

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JBG

JBG

Posted
Posted

 

I agree that one of these years, likely sooner than later the long term trend for these storms will diminish for the NYC area-hopefully I can be home to witness one or two more of these before it happens. 

Over the years there have been previous bursts of epic storms and then years of blah storms or nothing. December 26-27, 1947 and the December 1948 storms were epic. And January - March, 1947 was pretty active as well. Then the rest of 1949 clear through February 1956 were real ratters of winters; little snow and little in the way of cold. Then we had many jackpots from March 1956 through February 4 or 5, 1961, and then, with the exception of January 1964, little until the 1966-7 winter. That winter was pretty good and of course 1968-9, with a moderate December event and "Mayor Lindsay" was better.

 

Then, really, almost nothing besides a few 6-9" storms until 1977-8, PD I (1979), January and April 1982, the Megalopolis Blizzard (February 11, 1983), and a few moderate ones in January 1987.  It wasn't until March 1993 that we began to have, on a sporadic basis, big events, really, through the present. My point being that there were lots of long snow droughts in between. Even in recent years, we had some pretty lousy winters, such as 1996-7, 1997-8, 1988-9, 2001-2, 2007-8, and 2011-2 but as you can see from the listing, at least good ones have been in the majority.

 

So, they come and they go, just like the accumulated snow on the ground.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

the greatest year for snowstorms was from 3/3/1960 to 2/4/1961...four major storms and a major hurricane for good measure...three of those storms were major blizzards...if the 2/3-4/1961 storm did not change to a mix of sleet and rain it would have been a 25-30" snowstorm...there was a 28" snow depth in Brooklyn on 2/4/1961...the sixteen days in a row with max temperatures below 30 from 1/19 to 2/3 is still the record...

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