NESIS Ranking - Blizzard of 2016

[masomenos]

It takes 2 months to write a report and get everyone interested to comment and then sign off on it.  Lets just say... I've known a lot more than you have known about this report for some time.  

You're the NJ wx history expert...are there any kind of maps out there for Dec 1947. A fairly in-depth search on google didn't yield anything for me. I seem to remember reading somewhere it still holds the state record for most snow from one storm. Can't find it, though. Surprisingly very little information for a historic storm that's in the post-war era.

[JerseyWx]

It takes 2 months to write a report and get everyone interested to comment and then sign off on it.  Lets just say... I've known a lot more than you have known about this report for some time.

Interesting. Well, I'm glad they got it right in the end.

[Stormlover74]

You're the NJ wx history expert...are there any kind of maps out there for Dec 1947. A fairly in-depth search on google didn't yield anything for me. I seem to remember reading somewhere it still holds the state record for most snow from one storm. Can't find it, though. Surprisingly very little information for a historic storm that's in the post-war era.

I thought the previous record was in Cape May in 1899

[Guest Pamela]

I thought the previous record was in Cape May in 1899

 

It is the record...34 inches.  It was mostly over the southern half of the state though. 

[famartin]

Congratulations on getting out of Nevada...sort of like being exiled to Elba...you are now at Dulles Field?

Thanks.  Yes, the Baltimore/Washington WFO in Sterling.

[famartin]

You're the NJ wx history expert...are there any kind of maps out there for Dec 1947. A fairly in-depth search on google didn't yield anything for me. I seem to remember reading somewhere it still holds the state record for most snow from one storm. Can't find it, though. Surprisingly very little information for a historic storm that's in the post-war era.

I think there's one in the KU book.  

[MJO812]

The days leading up to this event was epic. We went from a DC jackpot to a NYC jackpot.

 

Congrats NAM and SREF

[famartin]

The days leading up to this event was epic. We went from a DC jackpot to a NYC jackpot.

 

CXongrats NAM and SREF

Not really, the max totals around 40" were in the eastern WV panhandle.  That was the true jackpot.  The total at Dulles of 29.3" was comparable to NYC's totals.

[MJO812]

Not really, the max totals around 40" were in the eastern WV panhandle.  That was the true jackpot.  The total at Dulles of 29.3" was comparable to NYC's totals.

I should have said the heaviest snowbands. The storm shifted more northwest 48 hours prior to the storm.

[famartin]

I should have said the heaviest snowbands. The storm shifted more northwest 48 hours prior to the storm.

The bands were pretty fierce in Eastern WV.

[masomenos]

It is the record...34 inches.  It was mostly over the southern half of the state

 

I thought the previous record was in Cape May in 1899

 

 

It is the record...34 inches.  It was mostly over the southern half of the state though. 

 

 

I think you're right, actually. Seems kind of weak record given how prone NJ is to coastal storms, though. Not sure how great this data set is, but it has December 1915 as the 24 hr record @ 32" in Rutherford NJ.  With a total like that for 24 hours, you'd think NJ's total storm record would be pushing 40".

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records

[masomenos]

 

I think you're right, actually. Seems kind of weak record given how prone NJ is to coastal storms, though. Not sure how great this data set is, but it has December 1915 as the 24 hr record @ 32" in Rutherford NJ.  With a total like that for 24 hours, you'd think NJ's total storm record would be pushing 40".

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records

 

For some reason Central Park records show only 6" for that same storm. Given that Rutherford is less than 10 miles away, I'm thinking bs on that NJ record.

[pazzo83]

There were verified blizzard conditions for 8+ hours at KJFK and KLGA.

For LI, it was just a regular major snowstorm. But for the NYC Metro itself it was a top 2 snowstorm with only 1996 as the other argument, IMO.

 

LI is part of the NYC metro.  I'd say 5 boroughs and parts of NJ.

[famartin]

For some reason Central Park records show only 6" for that same storm. Given that Rutherford is less than 10 miles away, I'm thinking bs on that NJ record.

There was very heavy snow in NW Passaic, Morris and Sussex. I can't find anything suggesting it hit closer to the city, tho.

[Allsnow]

It takes 2 months to write a report and get everyone interested to comment and then sign off on it. Lets just say... I've known a lot more than you have known about this report for some time.

How do you explain DCA loosing the snowboard during a storm? That's pretty embarrassing and unprofessional. The nws is always so proactive in educating the public on proper measurements, perhaps they should spend more time with the actual people measuring.

[bluewave]

The correction to the older storms like 47 and 88 would be to add 17% to those storm totals

to account for changes in measurement since then.

 

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

 

The sum of the snowboard measurements averaged 17 percent greater than the maximum depth on the ground at the end of the storm. For a 20-inch snowfall, that would be a boost of 3.4 inches—enough to dethrone many close rivals on the top-10 snowstorm list that were not necessarily lesser storms!

[uncle W]

The correction to the older storms like 47 and 88 would be to add 17% to those storm totals

to account for changes in measurement since then.

 

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

 

The sum of the snowboard measurements averaged 17 percent greater than the maximum depth on the ground at the end of the storm. For a 20-inch snowfall, that would be a boost of 3.4 inches—enough to dethrone many close rivals on the top-10 snowstorm list that were not necessarily lesser storms!

good post...if you look at old snowfall records for NYC the total snowfall usually matched the depth after the storm ended...one example is in January 1964 NYC measured 12.5" for the blizzard...It came on bare ground...They reported a 13" snow depth...

[codfishsnowman]

good post...if you look at old snowfall records for NYC the total snowfall usually matched the depth after the storm ended...one example is in January 1964 NYC measured 12.5" for the blizzard...It came on bare ground...They reported a 13" snow depth...

you mentioned you did not get as much snow as cpk in the jan storm...how much did you get? and what was the depth?

 

did you get crushed in the boxing day storm?

[bluewave]

good post...if you look at old snowfall records for NYC the total snowfall usually matched the depth after the storm ended...one example is in January 1964 NYC measured 12.5" for the blizzard...It came on bare ground...They reported a 13" snow depth...

 

I just added a 17% correction to the pre 1980 storms to get an updated NYC top ten heaviest snows.

Even with the correction to older storms, the 2000's still stand as an amazing run of heavy snows in

such a short period of time. And the possibility that some other recent storms were undermeasured.

 

30.2.....1947

27.5.....2016

26.9.....2006

24.6.....1888

21.2.....1941/1935

21.7.....1978

21.1.....1872

20.9.....2010 FEB

20.2.....1996

20.0.....2010 DEC

 

Close to top ten

 

19.8...2003 FEB

19.0...2011 JAN

[uncle W]

you mentioned you did not get as much snow as cpk in the jan storm...how much did you get? and what was the depth?

 

did you get crushed in the boxing day storm?

I didn't measure the storm...It didn't look like 27" but it was the rate of the snowfall that was lacking and radar showed heavier bands missing the area during the day...

[uncle W]

I just added a 17% correction to the pre 1980 storms to get an updated NYC top ten heaviest snows.

Even with the correction to older storms, the 2000's still stand as an amazing run of heavy snows in

such a short period of time. And the possibility that some other recent storms were undermeasured.

 

30.2.....1947

27.5.....2016

26.9.....2006

24.6.....1888

21.2.....1941/1935

21.7.....1978

21.1.....1872

20.9.....2010 FEB

20.2.....1996

20.0.....2010 DEC

 

Close to top ten

 

19.8...2003 FEB

19.0...2011 JAN

December 2010 is suspect to me...it was 20.0" with a 20" snow depth...

[masomenos]

There was very heavy snow in NW Passaic, Morris and Sussex. I can't find anything suggesting it hit closer to the city, tho.

interesting. Rutherford is about 7 miles away. I'm guessing there was some kind of insane marine boundary parked somewhere over the Hudson? Those boundaries tend to happen in early December storms, so I'm not thinking it's impossible, but a 2ft gradient is off the charts.

[Guest Pamela]

 

I think you're right, actually. Seems kind of weak record given how prone NJ is to coastal storms, though. Not sure how great this data set is, but it has December 1915 as the 24 hr record @ 32" in Rutherford NJ.  With a total like that for 24 hours, you'd think NJ's total storm record would be pushing 40".

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records

 

 

In January 1996, Whitehouse, in Hunterdon County reported 35 inches for a new state record.  However, about a year later, it was determined an over measurement had occurred...and the 1899 record was re-instated.

[dmillz25]

December 2010 is suspect to me...it was 20.0" with a 20" snow depth...

Yeah it should be closer to 2ft imo

[famartin]

How do you explain DCA loosing the snowboard during a storm? That's pretty embarrassing and unprofessional. The nws is always so proactive in educating the public on proper measurements, perhaps they should spend more time with the actual people measuring.

 

I can offer no further information than what the report has within it.

[famartin]

The correction to the older storms like 47 and 88 would be to add 17% to those storm totals

to account for changes in measurement since then.

 

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

 

The sum of the snowboard measurements averaged 17 percent greater than the maximum depth on the ground at the end of the storm. For a 20-inch snowfall, that would be a boost of 3.4 inches—enough to dethrone many close rivals on the top-10 snowstorm list that were not necessarily lesser storms!

 

Again, this is not necessarily true.  Fluffier snow compacts more than the higher density stuff  typically received in windy blizzards.  EWR reported 24" in December 2010 and that was also their peak snow depth. 

[famartin]

December 2010 is suspect to me...it was 20.0" with a 20" snow depth...

 

EWR depth also matched fall in that storm. 

 

High density snow from windy blizzards does not compact as much. 

[famartin]

interesting. Rutherford is about 7 miles away. I'm guessing there was some kind of insane marine boundary parked somewhere over the Hudson? Those boundaries tend to happen in early December storms, so I'm not thinking it's impossible, but a 2ft gradient is off the charts.

 

It is pretty extreme.  There are much lower values to the NW in Paterson and Little Falls too, making it look very suspicious.

[bluewave]

Again, this is not necessarily true.  Fluffier snow compacts more than the higher density stuff  typically received in windy blizzards.  EWR reported 24" in December 2010 and that was also their peak snow depth. 

 

It's probably closer to the mark that some older storms would possibly be in that 15-20% greater category if measured

by todays standards. I guess a formal reanalysis of pre-80/90 snowfall totals would probably be needed to get a closer

representation of some past storms. 

[masomenos]

It is pretty extreme. There are much lower values to the NW in Paterson and Little Falls too, making it look very suspicious.

yeah, I'm not buying it. Must have been a drift. That NCDC page is really bad--any true scientist should be ashamed of making a list of records with such shoddy data. Entertainment only, I suppose.