NESIS Ranking - Blizzard of 2016

[Guest Pamela]

 The warmer background state

probably enhanced the moisture content of the atmosphere

 

I would amend that to read "possibly"...as you have made an inference...not a conclusive determination.

 

Most of the fact finding discoveries about the secrets of Nature and the Universe are rooted in mankind making inferences...and this is an amazingly healthy thing...for in this dynamic most discovery and cultural & scientific advancement has its foundation.

 

But it is still prudent to hedge absent more substantial evidence before declaring something to be so...or even probably so. 

[ag3]

What an amazingly lol worthy determination...to suddenly conjure out of thin air another 7/10ths of an inch three months after the fact.

 

Although a very significant amount of snow did fall with the system; its image has already faded from my mind's eye.  I can recall the events and excitement of the day surrounding the February 1983 blizzard far more easily than this last one...as it was actually a fairly tame and jejune storm...though the frequency of these things over the last 20 years undoubtedly factors into my blasé attitude towards it.

 

When historians look back at this record...it will be accorded the same regard that the all time record for runs batted in is afforded...as basically no one knows who holds it...well, almost no one...w/o referencing a Wikipedia article.

 

 

In my lifetime, since 1981, the  Jan. 2016 Blizzard was the greatest snow depth and snow storm for the NYC metro area. 1996 was close, but not quite. 30"+ amounts were verified by an official station (JFK) and all the major stations recorded 27"+ for 2016.

 

Snow removal has improved dramatically over the last 15 years as well. No comparison to the 1980s or 1990s.

[Guest Pamela]

 

 

Snow cleaning has improved dramatically over the last 15 years as well. No comparison to the 1980s or 1990s.

 

I agree on that.  Also the absence of thunder & lightning, a lack of gale force winds (or at least it seemed that way)...and, perhaps most importantly, no extreme snowfall rates (3 in +_ per hour)...at least where I am at...they may have been experienced elsewhere.

 

Even that 2015 storm...it was dead in the water until about 1 AM...and then that wall of snow (4 inches an hour) came in from the east...and that made it really a good deal more memorable than this last one.

 

The 2013 storm was the best of the three by far...soooooo much excitement....thunder & lightning...six inches an hour....that was unreal...but even beyond that....the amazing excitement brought on by perilously skirting the rain / snow line....it went over to snow here around 12:30 PM that Friday afternoon...and it was exciting to see the line sooo close to my SSW.

 

The SUNY MM5 had the line right over LI & NYC all afternoon...and I was not sure if I would be on the safe side...I recall making a pessimistic post that the outcome might not be favorable for huge snows that day.

 

One would also have to factor in subjectivity & disappointment as for sullying the 2016 storm in my eyes as this area may have done all right with it...but many areas did better...as I always say:

 

"Coming in second wouldn't be the worst...as long as no one else was first!"

[ag3]

I agree on that.  Also the absence of thunder & lightning, a lack of gale force winds (or at least it seemed that way)...and, perhaps most importantly, no extreme snowfall rates (3 in +_ per hour)...at least where I am at...they may have been experienced elsewhere.

 

There were verified blizzard conditions for 8+ hours at KJFK and KLGA.

For LI, it was just a regular major snowstorm. But for the NYC Metro itself it was a top 2 snowstorm with only 1996 as the other argument, IMO.

[BxEngine]

There were verified blizzard conditions for 8+ hours at KJFK and KLGA.

For LI, it was just a regular major snowstorm. But for the NYC Metro itself it was a top 2 snowstorm with only 1996 as the other argument, IMO.

not even top 10 here. In this part of the nyc metro itself.

[dmillz25]

It snowed 1-3 inches here an hour for at least 15 hours here

[bluewave]

I would amend that to read "possibly"...as you have made an inference...not a conclusive determination.

 

Most of the fact finding discoveries about the secrets of Nature and the Universe are rooted in mankind making inferences...and this is an amazingly healthy thing...for in this dynamic most discovery and cultural & scientific advancement has its foundation.

 

But it is still prudent to hedge absent more substantial evidence before declaring something to be so...or even probably so. 

 

It's just basic physics. The warmer atmosphere and oceans hold more moisture. We also had a rare

January hurricane this winter with the record Atlantic warmth.

[ag3]

not even top 10 here. In this part of the nyc metro itself.

 

Yeah I know. It was a Queens, Brooklyn, Staten Island, S. Bronx and  EWR area jackpot.

[Brian5671]

Amazing northern cutoff on this one.  "just" 14 inches here 60 miles northeast of the Jackpots of 30.  (and even less 30 miles north of here on the order of 3-6 inches)

[Guest Pamela]

There were verified blizzard conditions for 8+ hours at KJFK and KLGA.

For LI, it was just a regular major snowstorm. But for the NYC Metro itself it was a top 2 snowstorm with only 1996 as the other argument, IMO.

 

I think Islip overmeasured...and probably some of the public on the Long Island as well.  NorthShore Wx in Smithtown probably came closest to getting it right with his 15 - 17 inches or so...I forgot his precise total.

 

I'd trust his measurements more than any "trained spotter", "FAA Contract Observer", or even me...because I don't keep up on the rule changes that NOAA promulgates from time to time the way he does.

[Guest Pamela]

 

The 2013 storm was the best of the three by far...soooooo much excitement....thunder & lightning...six inches an hour....that was unreal...but even beyond that....the amazing excitement brought on by perilously skirting the rain / snow line....it went over to snow here around 12:30 PM that Friday afternoon...and it was exciting to see the line sooo close to my SSW.

 

 

 

The best snowstorm since I moved to Long Island a long, long time ago (Cue Fab Four).

[SnoSki14]

Eventually they'll be a tipping point where the warmer background state will be hard to overcome but I think we're okay for at least 25 years.

[Guest Pamela]

Eventually they'll be a tipping point where the warmer background state will be hard to overcome but I think we're okay for at least 25 years.

 

"He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass."

___Laurence Tribe...though he may have lifted or paraphrased it from some other guy

[Guest Pamela]

"He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass."

___Laurence Tribe...though he may have lifted or paraphrased it from some other guy

 

 

...though making predictions is a fun & wholesome activity...and I actively encourage it.

[Guest Pamela]

...though making predictions is a fun & wholesome activity...and I actively encourage it.

 

 

...as long as you buy up all the magazine copies they were made in should they go awry...or be rather adroit in your deleting capacities if by way of the 'net.

[Guest Pamela]

 But for the NYC Metro itself it was a top 2 snowstorm with only 1996 as the other argument, IMO.

 

December 1947 and March 1888 were probably better...unless you just mean over the course of your lifetime.

 

I've argued that March 1888 was a fairly good measurement...in opposition to those that have said the Weather Bureau was off by a foot...but it still may have been slightly underdone.

[ag3]

December 1947 and March 1888 were probably better...unless you just mean over the course of your lifetime.

 

I've argued that March 1888 was a fairly good measurement...in opposition to those that have said the Weather Bureau was off by a foot...but it still may have been slightly underdone.

 

We only have record books to go by and by the record books, Jan. 2016 was the greatest snowstorm ever in the NYC metro. 1888 might be the exception but as you know records were scarce then.

[Brian5671]

DCA measurement was upheld.   EWR was deemed to be an over measurement due to clearing the board more than once every 6 hrs

[ORH_wxman]

December 1947 and March 1888 were probably better...unless you just mean over the course of your lifetime.

 

I've argued that March 1888 was a fairly good measurement...in opposition to those that have said the Weather Bureau was off by a foot...but it still may have been slightly underdone.

 

 

Larger storms have been disproportionately affected by the change in measuring techniques as well. A 27" storm in 2016 or even 1996 would probably be like a 23" storm 70 years ago.

[Guest Pamela]

 We only have record books to go by and by the record books, Jan. 2016 was the greatest snowstorm ever in the NYC metro.

 

Its subject to debate...I mean up until this morning...February 2006 was THE GREATEST SNOWSTORM EVER...and hardly any same person would give their blessing to such a designation.

 

 

 

 

1888 might be the exception but as you know records were scarce then.

 

 

Not as scare as you might think...there was actually a fairly long list of reports from the 1888 storm...not as long as a modern day PNS out of OKX...but given all the imprecision of the overexuberant and their associated slanted rulers...I'm not so sure we have that much better a sample at present.

 

Ludlum's New Jersey Weather Book has a least one measurement for each county in the eponymous state.

[Guest Pamela]

Larger storms have been disproportionately affected by the change in measuring techniques as well. A 27" storm in 2016 or even 1996 would probably be like a 23" storm 70 years ago.

 

I concur...

[Guest Pamela]

DCA measurement was upheld.   EWR was deemed to be an over measurement due to clearing the board more than once every 6 hrs

 

Its interesting how the simple inevitably transmutes to the complex...invariably money is an intrinsic factor...always is.

 

Man cannot live with out regulating himself; yet all he does is moan about being regulated.  The paradox is delicious!  As always, man has met the enemy...and it is himself...lol.

[Guest Pamela]

DCA measurement was upheld. 

 

Does F. Lee Bailey take "weather" cases...I might want to appeal...

 

<Probably don't have standing since I'm outside the jurisdiction...could argue "Citizen of the World" angle...might work>.

[ORH_wxman]

I concur...

 

Most of the individual storm snowfall records can be explained by this variable...though there are exceptions. But storms like Feb 2006 and this past January would certainly fit the bill in NYC.

 

The frequency of KU events is a different topic...we've certainly seen a big uptick in them since 2009 especially. I'd expect that to reverse (as mentioned in the other thread about interior snow vs coastal snow) at some point.

[ag3]

Its subject to debate...I mean up until this morning...February 2006 was THE GREATEST SNOWSTORM EVER...and hardly any same person would give their blessing to such a designation.

 

 

 

 

Not as scare as you might think...there was actually a fairly long list of reports from the 1888 storm...not as long as a modern day PNS out of OKX...but given all the imprecision of the overexuberant and their associated slanted rulers...I'm not so sure we have that much better a sample at present.

 

Ludlum's New Jersey Weather Book has a least one measurement for each county in the eponymous state.

 

 

Feb. 2006 did not have the close to 30" totals at EWR, LGA, JFK and NYC. Jan. 2016 had 26"+ at all 4 of these locations. Unheard of.

[ag3]

Larger storms have been disproportionately affected by the change in measuring techniques as well. A 27" storm in 2016 or even 1996 would probably be like a 23" storm 70 years ago.

 

Jan. 2016 was a different beast. We had confirmed (official stations) plus a ton of spotter totals in the 28"-34" range in the middle of the 5 boroughs. For LGA to report 28" and JFK to report 30" is incredible, since both these stations are notorious for their low measurements.

 

I personally measured 32" in most spots, but went with LGA's official 28.1" in my seasonal total.

[Guest Pamela]

Most of the individual storm snowfall records can be explained by this variable...though there are exceptions. But storms like Feb 2006 and this past January would certainly fit the bill in NYC.

 

The frequency of KU events is a different topic...we've certainly seen a big uptick in them since 2009 especially. I'd expect that to reverse (as mentioned in the other thread about interior snow vs coastal snow) at some point.

 

Yes, well we have been over this more times than Carter has liver pills...the insanity that set in at Logan in 1992-93 and has continued down the coast to at least central Jersey for nearly a quarter century (with a few stops & starts here & there) is about as anomalous as anything you're going to see.

[Guest Pamela]

Jan. 2016 was a different beast. We had confirmed (official stations) plus a ton of spotter totals in the 28"-34" range in the middle of the 5 boroughs. For LGA to report 28" and JFK to report 30" is incredible, since both these stations are notorious for their low measurements.

 

I personally measured 32" in most spots, but went with LGA's official 28.1" in my seasonal total.

 

Hey its like putting Don Sutton in the Hall of Fame...yeah, he won 300 games or whatever...but he just doesn't seem like a H.O.F. type of guy....

[ORH_wxman]

Jan. 2016 was a different beast. We had confirmed (official stations) plus a ton of spotter totals in the 28"-34" range in the middle of the 5 boroughs. For LGA to report 28" and JFK to report 30" is incredible, since both these stations are notorious for their low measurements.

 

I personally measured 32" in most spots, but went with LGA's official 28.1" in my seasonal total.

 

2016 was definitely a more impressive storm than 2006 for it's aerial coverage of large amounts...among other non-snow factors as well.

 

But the point still stands about how official measurements are made today vs decades ago. You can probably cut about 15% off the totals of current day KU monsters to get what the measurements would have been back in the day. This is ignoring whether one thinks the airport totals were "right" or not based on other nearby amateur measurements. We've all had that discussion before. But all else equal, the numbers will be higher clearing every 6 hours.

[ag3]

2016 was definitely a more impressive storm than 2006 for it's aerial coverage of large amounts...among other non-snow factors as well.

 

But the point still stands about how official measurements are made today vs decades ago. You can probably cut about 15% off the totals of current day KU monsters to get what the measurements would have been back in the day. This is ignoring whether one thinks the airport totals were "right" or not based on other nearby amateur measurements. We've all had that discussion before. But all else equal, the numbers will be higher clearing every 6 hours.

 

Agreed, but with 2016, snow depth measurements almost matched the 6 hour measurement totals.

I believe LGA reported 26" of snow depth the following morning (28.1" using the 6 hour method). The other stations were close to their official measurements as well.

 

Even cutting off the 15% you mentioned would give Queens (one of the most heavily populated areas in the world) 24"-28" (using LGA's 28.1" and JFK's 30").