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NESIS Ranking - Blizzard of 2016

dmb8021

By dmb8021,
in New York City Metro

NESIS Category  

108 members have voted

  1. 1. What NESIS category will the blizzard of 2016 receive?


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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

What a horrendous map, embarrassing. 

 

NWS Upton officially recorded 18 inches of snow, and that map has them in the 4-10 range. 

 

The lowest snowfall total anywhere on LI was 15 inches out in Southampton. 

 

Just awful.

 

Agree. The map is way off and if it was correct, it likely scores higher then March, 1960. Also, the 30" dot at ABE is false. That entire area saw 30"+. Not just ABE. Same goes for the little dot over Queens. From JFK to Jackson Heights saw over 30". The red shade should be over almost half of Queens.

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

Not to mention KISP at 24 inches. That's an official observation, 24 inches, and all of suffolk is in the 10-20 range. I guess the official report and the numerous NWS employees and trained spotters who reported 2 feet in suffolk were all wrong. What a complete joke.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Not to mention KISP at 24 inches. That's an official observation, 24 inches, and all of suffolk is in the 10-20 range. I guess the official report and the numerous NWS employees and trained spotters who reported 2 feet in suffolk were all wrong. What a complete joke.

 

How about JFK 30.5"??? Official NYC station. The red dot is over Jackson Heights (34") and not JFK???

OK there.

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted

The map is pretty horrific and it's getting destroyed on social media by many respected meteorologists.

Deservedly so in my opinion. If I had some spare time I'd plot the official NWS measurements over their poor shading.

NOAAs argument is that the data used to calculate the overall NESIS rating is using the correct snow measurements even though it may appear as if the map is incorrect in a "few" places.

I have my doubts about that one.

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted

The map is pretty horrific and it's getting destroyed on social media by many respected meteorologists.

Deservedly so in my opinion. If I had some spare time I'd plot the official NWS measurements over their poor shading.

NOAAs argument is that the data used to calculate the overall NESIS rating is using the correct snow measurements even though it may appear as if the map is incorrect in a "few" places.

I have my doubts about that one.

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

its a bit over done in northern ct and mass...most places north of the pike in wmass did not even have a coating

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Parsley

Parsley

Posted
Posted

What a horrendous map, embarrassing.

NWS Upton officially recorded 18 inches of snow, and that map has them in the 4-10 range.

The lowest snowfall total anywhere on LI was 15 inches out in Southampton.

Just awful.

Yup, totally misrepresents eastern PA. I did a contour map (5" intervals) based on the PHI totals and it looks nothing like that.

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted

Agree. The map is way off and if it was correct, it likely scores higher then March, 1960. Also, the 30" dot at ABE is false. That entire area saw 30"+. Not just ABE. Same goes for the little dot over Queens. From JFK to Jackson Heights saw over 30". The red shade should be over almost half of Queens.

Pls note that they horribly misrepresented the blizzard if 96 too.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

What a horrendous map, embarrassing. 

 

NWS Upton officially recorded 18 inches of snow, and that map has them in the 4-10 range. 

 

The lowest snowfall total anywhere on LI was 15 inches out in Southampton. 

 

Just awful.

 

The map is also way off in the DC/VA area.  The 20"+ accumulations stretch much further south than indicated.

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

New official Nesis rankings. Jan. 2016 finishes ahead of PD2 now:

 

New rankings:

 

#1: March 1993: Nesis 5- 13.20

#2: Blizzard of 1996: Nesis 5- 11.78

#3: March 1960: Nesis 4- 8.77

#4: Jan. 2016: Nesis 4- 7.66

#5: PD2 2003: Nesis 4- 7.50

 

Was looking at this here and on the NESIS webpage and I was wondering where the Blizzard of 1888 ranked and noticed it wasn't even there.  I then found it in the original KU paper, where it was ranked 4th behind PDII in Feb-2003 and followed by Feb 1899 at 5th and March 1960 at 6th, as per the list below.  I know many of the scores were redone by NOAA, but for them to not list any of the storms prior to 1950 in their table, without even noting it, is horrible.  Somebody there needs to fix that.  

 

Using the KU list, Jan-16 would be 6th overall at 7.66, but who knows, really, since Feb 2003 dropped from 8.91 by KU to 7.50 in the NOAA scoring and Mar-1960 rose from 7.63 by KU to 8.77 in the NOAA scoring.  Assuming 1888 and 1899 didn't drop below 8.0, then Jan-16 would be 6th, presumably.  Very confusing.  

 

1 12–14 Mar 1993 12.52 5 Extreme

2 6–8 Jan 1996 11.54 5 Extreme 

3 15–18 Feb 2003 8.91 4 Crippling 

4 11–14 Mar 1888 8.34 4 Crippling 

5 11–14 Feb 1899 8.11 4 Crippling 

6 2–5 Mar 1960 7.63 4 Crippling 

7 10–12 Feb 1983 6.28 4 Crippling 

8 5–7 Feb 1978 6.25 4 Crippling 

9 2–5 Feb 1961 6.24 4 Crippling

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/docs/kocin-and-uccellini-2004.pdf

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

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weathermedic

weathermedic

Posted
Posted

The January 2016 blizzard did, in fact, set the all time single storm snowfall record in NYC. NWS publication: https://t.co/qVj17iUyFJ

Lots of goodies. And Newark has been measuring snow like doosh magoosh.

Something should be done to change the JFK measuring area. They use an open rooftop with a white measuring board. All kinds of potential issues there from melting (the entire roof is black other then the white snowboard) from uv radiation through the clouds to heat being generated from within the building.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

 

Jan Blizzard
 
Congrats Central Park ( New Snowfall Record 27.5 inches )
 
NWS measured 26.8 while the Central Park Conservancy measured 27.5 ( new record )
 

 

 

What an amazingly lol worthy determination...to suddenly conjure out of thin air another 7/10ths of an inch three months after the fact.

 

Although a very significant amount of snow did fall with the system; its image has already faded from my mind's eye.  I can recall the events and excitement of the day surrounding the February 1983 blizzard far more easily than this last one...as it was actually a fairly tame and jejune storm...though the frequency of these things over the last 20 years undoubtedly factors into my blasé attitude towards it.

 

When historians look back at this record...it will be accorded the same regard that the all time record for runs batted in is afforded...as basically no one knows who holds it...well, almost no one...w/o referencing a Wikipedia article.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The 2 biggest NYC snowstorms occurred during the 2nd and 9th warmest winters on record.

Number one this winter followed the historic December warmth. The second greatest in

2006 followed the third warmest January on record. The warmer background state

probably enhanced the moisture content of the atmosphere and the blocking

provided the right track and just enough cold for the record snow amounts.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

What a horrendous map, embarrassing. 

 

NWS Upton officially recorded 18 inches of snow, and that map has them in the 4-10 range. 

 

The lowest snowfall total anywhere on LI was 15 inches out in Southampton. 

 

Just awful.

 

It is strange that the NESIS maps seem less than spot on...as Mr. Kocin (I believe) was influential in designing the scale and his book Northeast Snowstorms features absolutely outstanding graphics...particularly the snow maps.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

The 2 biggest NYC snowstorms occurred during the 2nd and 9th warmest winters on record.

Number one this winter followed the historic December warmth. The second greatest in

2006 followed the third warmest January on record. The warmer background state

probably enhanced the moisture content of the atmosphere and the blocking

provided the right track and just enough cold for the record snow amounts.

 

Its hard to say if that was necessarily the determinative factor.  If we sort of followed that line of reasoning to its logical extension...then the heaviest snowstorm in NYC history would almost certainly have had to have fallen during the month of March...given the obviously higher precipitable water amounts available vis a vis the other 3 winter months...aided & abetted by over 150 years of chances.

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