NESIS Ranking - Blizzard of 2016

[dmb8021]

There was some discussion in the observation thread about where yesterday's blizzard ranks on the NESIS scale. I thought it would be useful to have a poll to see what everyone thinks. Looking at the distribution of snow totals by location, it looks similar to 1996.
 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

 

NESIS scores are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The diagram below illustrates how NESIS values are calculated within a geographical information system (GIS). The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over ten for extreme storms. The raw score is then converted into one of the five NESIS categories. The largest NESIS values result from storms producing heavy snowfall over large areas that include major metropolitan centers.

 

 

Here are 1-17 on the NESIS list:

 

 

1/23/2016 Blizzard Totals

 

 

 

[Superstorm]

Think it takes number 3...10.05

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Morris]

The "first" blizzard of 2016.... Who knows, maybe you'll have to go back and edit all that...

[Rjay]

4

It will be #3 IMO

[Morris]

Using the data available by now, isn't it a simple math equation to calculate and get the number?

[EastonSN+]

I think a 4 and will be #3

[SnowBlitzkrieg]

[Metasequoia]

Truly a massive storm. I am still thinking #3, even with "very preliminary results" in. When it was snowing, it felt like second place.

Lots of highly populated areas were just under 30 inches, which will ding this storm's score if I understand the methodology correctly.

[Morris]

Cat 4 likely per Maue calculation.

Preliminary blizzard NESIS of 6.5

Hopefully someone w/GIS skills can confirm

(12z NOHRC snowfall analysis) https://t.co/JxA0j0ws5e

[RU848789]

Yesterday I said it would end up in 3rd place after Jan-96, as a high cat 4 - if it had delivered a foot of snow to Boston, in addition to what it did do, I think it would've been a 5.  

[JBG]

I vote Category 4 based upon comparison with past storms. The storm's miss of almost all of New England cuts it from a 5 to a 4.

[Chinook]

According to Kocin and Uccellini, Chapter 8, page 257. The greatest two storm in terms of million of people in 30" snowfall zones are:

 

Blizzard of '96: 5.1 million with 30"+

22-28 February 1969: 4.2 million with 30"+

 

Looks like this storm affected 2.9 million (by Ryan Maue) or 4.4 million (above graphic by NWS). So that's kind of a big difference between these two calculations, but it still puts it as the 2nd or 3rd most people affected by 30"+.

[WintersGrasp]

I think it will be a 4 and ranked #5

[donsutherland1]

Category 4, 3rd or 4th biggest.

[Ericjcrash]

4, and 3rd.

[Morris]

From Kocin in the ME thread:

First,would just like to say what an honor it was to work with Nick Wiltgen, who was a long time member of TWC's radio network and passed away yesterday way too soon.

There also is a preliminary estimate for NESIS for the blizzard, worked up by the NWS. It scored 7.49, placing it as a category 4 storm (crippling). It falls between the Feb 1983 snowstorm (6.3) and Pres Day Il in Feb 2003 (8.9), also cat 4 storms.

March 1993 and Jan Blizzard of 1996 remain as Cat 5 storms (as well as the combination of the Feb 5-6 and Feb 9-10 storms). Why does Jan 1996 rate higher, you may ask? Heavier snow over a larger area and greater population.

[Metasequoia]

So much of the I-95 corridor was just a few inches under 30 inches. This storm was so close to having tens of millions of people affected by 30 or more inches of snow. That might have made the difference between being essentialy tied for 4th place and being in third place.

Experiencing a 4th place blizzard isn't so bad though.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

So much of the I-95 corridor was just a few inches under 30 inches. This storm was so close to having tens of millions of people affected by 30 or more inches of snow. That might have made the difference between being essentialy tied for 4th place and being in third place.

Experiencing a 4th place blizzard isn't so bad though.

Missing Boston with big snows is also an issue. Regardless we just lived through one of the best. Thank God I was a kid during the 80s I don't think I could handle that awful snow decade as an adult

[Metasequoia]

Yes, definitely would have been huge if Boston joined in on the fun. I'm glad they even got near 6 inches...they were so close to being completely shut out.

[ag3]

From Kocin in the ME thread:

First,would just like to say what an honor it was to work with Nick Wiltgen, who was a long time member of TWC's radio network and passed away yesterday way too soon.

There also is a preliminary estimate for NESIS for the blizzard, worked up by the NWS. It scored 7.49, placing it as a category 4 storm (crippling). It falls between the Feb 1983 snowstorm (6.3) and Pres Day Il in Feb 2003 (8.9), also cat 4 storms.

March 1993 and Jan Blizzard of 1996 remain as Cat 5 storms (as well as the combination of the Feb 5-6 and Feb 9-10 storms). Why does Jan 1996 rate higher, you may ask? Heavier snow over a larger area and greater population.

Preliminary new top 5:

#1- March 1993 (13.20)

#2- Blizzard of 1996 (11.78)

#3- March 1960 (8.78)

#4- PD2 2003 (7.50)

#5- Jan. 2016 (7.49)

[ag3]

I refuse to count Feb. 5-6 and Feb. 9-10, 2010 as 1 storm and also it did not affect NYC and Boston with HECS #s.

Jan. 2016 affected Richmond, DC, Philly, Allentown, Baltimore, NYC, NJ, LI and SCT with HECS #s.

Much more impactful on mass population.

[nycwinter]

Preliminary new top 5:

#1- March 1993 (13.20)

#2- Blizzard of 1996 (11.78)

#3- March 1960 (8.78)

#4- PD2 2003 (7.50)

#5- Jan. 2016 (7.49)

for january 1996 to be rated that much higher or even higher at all then this storm is just crazy....

[JC-CT]

I refuse to count Feb. 5-6 and Feb. 9-10, 2010 as 1 storm and also it did not affect NYC and Boston with HECS #s.

Jan. 2016 affected Richmond, DC, Philly, Allentown, Baltimore, NYC, NJ, LI and SCT with HECS #s.

Much more impactful on mass population.

Yeah I agree with that, two separate and discrete systems. I'm not sure why he even brought that up.

If we go by that logic, the New England "longwave storm" as tippy coined it last year would score off the charts. But it doesn't work like that.

[EastonSN+]

for january 1996 to be rated that much higher or even higher at all then this storm is just crazy....

96 affected a larger area and more people. You have to put the snow maps side by side. It also has to do with location. For me rcved 27 inches in 96 and 11.5 this storm so not everyone got crushed. Plus Philly did way better in 96 as did Boston. I think 96 affected Ohio more too. For NYC locally I agree 2016 is the highest.

[ag3]

for january 1996 to be rated that much higher or even higher at all then this storm is just crazy....

 

Because Boston wasn't impacted. If Boston were impacted, I would think this storm would be #3 or maybe even #2.

[ag3]

Yeah I agree with that, two separate and discrete systems. I'm not sure why he even brought that up.

If we go by that logic, the New England "longwave storm" as tippy coined it last year would score off the charts. But it doesn't work like that.

 

No disrespect to Mr. Kocin but to combine 2 storms into 1 and claim it as a Nesis 5 is ludicrous.

And also it's a flawed logic since NYC and Boston were not impacted by Hecs #s.

 

This past storm impacted a much greater population area with 20"-35" amounts. Even Boston received 6.2" and parts of the Cape had over a foot.

[EastonSN+]

Because Boston wasn't impacted. If Boston were impacted, I would think this storm would be #3 or maybe even #2.

Plus Hartford. Providence. Springfield. Cinncinatti. Etc...

[JC-CT]

1996 also extended much further into Indiana and Ohio

[JC-CT]

Plus Hartford. Providence. Springfield. Cinncinatti. Etc...

Yeah people forget that the Ohio Valley counts just as much

[IsentropicLift]

Agreed, if Boston had received similar amounts to DC to NYC corridor then it would have been in a world of its own. Biggest snowstorm IMBY since 2011 and top five all time. I would still rate 96', 03' and Feb 11' higher. I was too young to remember 93".