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Central PA - February 2016


MAG5035

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So forecast and model temp at 6 pm for MDT was to be 29. MDT is sitting at 22 right now.

Um. Yikes.

Yea I don't like this at all.

Even the RAP and HRRR are too bullish with low level temps. This is becoming increasingly more interesting as the day progresses

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Yea I don't like this at all.

Even the RAP and HRRR are too bullish with low level temps. This is becoming increasingly more interesting as the day progresses

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I think we knew in the back of our minds we knew that cold would be tough to scour out.

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I think we knew in the back of our minds we knew that cold would be tough to scour out.

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Ground temps are still well below what was forecast as well if you look at the soil temps from the ECMWF to HRRR. I think accretion could be pretty steady if the ZR doesn't fall too hard.

RTMA 3hour temps are pretty telling

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In my post yesterday afternoon I said that I didn't care what the models said about the warmup.  The cold would hang on and last longer than any model indicated...and we would have a significant ice event.  My prediction for myself is that I will not rise above 32.0 degrees until between 8:30am and 10:00am tomorrow morning.  Let's see how close I come.  Also, by that time a decent amount of the "deluge" will have already fallen.  I said that >50% of this storm's total qpf would come from frozen and freezing precip.  Let's see how close I come.

 

As for the present, I've got light snow with a temperature of 22.0 degrees after a high earlier of 23.5.  The radar looks incredible with 25 dbz snowfall about to move north into me.  That should produce the several inches of heavy snow I was expecting.  So far I've only recorded about 0.7".

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So forecast and model temp at 6 pm for MDT was to be 29. MDT is sitting at 22 right now.

Um. Yikes.

this has been my worry all week... and any snow adding to what was wasn't covered and to the inches of what was isn't going to allow for a quick warm up on the surface right away.  Sure air temp could read mid 30s but after the last few days untreated ground temps could easily remain below freezing point longer

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22ºF and a burst of heavy snow currently. Up to about an inch new so far. 

 

Guess we'll see how things shake out. I'm expecting an absolute mess here regardless of whether temps get above freezing or not during best precip. Being in the woods with a gravel driveway that's hard frozen from the cold weather is going continue to ice up even if it is 34-35 degrees. 

 

Really sucks that this storm ended up to the left and looks to be that apps runner that's only slightly more common than unicorns... at least that seems to be the model consensus. Can't even get the Pit gang a snowstorm..but NW PA looks to get hammered from this. I am noting a bit of a weakness off of the VA and Delmarva on mesoanalysis.. which is probably helping hold in cold surface temps for the time being in the absence of the traditional high pressure. It's going to be a fight to warm things up. the 32ºF line still dips all the way into NW South Carolina at this hour. Not really a tremendous warm push west of the apps either at the surface. Part of me wonders it the low eventually tries to jump toward the more significant baroclinic boundary that resides along the coastline. 

 

Gonna be interesting to watch...CTP may eventually need upgraded headlines for more counties (WSW or ice storm warning). Also need to watch the backside of the system tomorrow. If the low ends up east a bit, or deepens more rapidly it may introduce additional snowfall for the central counties. If it runs through the middle of the state as progged, it's probably going to slot the central counties with minimal changeover. 

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Heavy snow has arrived.  Great flakes.  Temp dropping, down to 21.8.  Up to over an inch accumulation.  Probably coming down at over 1/2"/hour rate, so we'll see where things are by 8:00pm.  Still pure snow here at the moment.  Temp right now is exactly the same as it was during the blizzard, minus the winds.  I love really cold snow and how crystallized the flakes are.  Enjoyable.

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