Voyager Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Everyone's so focused on the snow thump, yet not much is being said about ice. Looking at ice maps from State College, I'll be lucky to see a tenth of an inch af ice, but Mt Holly has a quarter to half inch for Carbon County right up to the Schuylkill County border. I wonder who'll be closer to verifying correctly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Everyone's so focused on the snow thump, yet not much is being said about ice. Looking at ice maps from State College, I'll be lucky to see a tenth of an inch af ice, but Mt Holly has a quarter to half inch for Carbon County right up to the Schuylkill County border. I wonder who'll be closer to verifying correctly... I don't know why there is such a discrepancy among the nws forecast offices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I don't know why there is such a discrepancy among the nws forecast offices it's laughable, really. They don't even have a smowfall map. If you click on the link it shows a blank map that says, "no measurable snow is expected within the next 72 hours". Really? We all know there's going to be some snow somewhere in the forecast area. Whether it's a half inch or 6 inches. Put SOMETHING out there indicating the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 it's laughable, really. They don't even have a smowfall map. If you click on the link it shows a blank map that says, "no measurable snow is expected within the next 72 hours". Really? We all know there's going to be some snow somewhere in the forecast area. Whether it's a half inch or 6 inches. Put SOMETHING out there indicating the potential. Sometimes they drag their heels it seem, no watches or advisories the ground is frozen for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Is the GFS trying to follow the Nam? Will it start trending east...or hang to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Sometimes they drag their heels it seem, no watches or advisories the ground is frozen for days now.At least Binghamton is posting maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Only dropped to a "balmy" low of +7.3 degrees this morning. I don't do well here with windy low temps. Had the winds been calm, however, I easily would have been 10 degrees colder. If skies remain clear long enough early this evening it wouldn't surprise me if I drop back down to and even below my morning low before the snow clouds begin to move in. I love Horst's comments. If Lancaster County is still freezing raining until at least 8am Tuesday morning, then it will easily still be doing the same here until then and even later into the morning. I don't get the NWS forecast logic right now. They introduce the verbiage of plain rain with a temp of 28 degrees as early as 4pm Monday afternoon for me. That's crazy! There will not be any plain rain falling here tomorrow at any point in time. I would at least expect an advisory for the mess we're all going to see. We're within 24 hours of the start of the precip now. There's gotta be something coming from them with the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I hate to say it....but I'm gonna. NWS State College has (and has for some time) a warm bias. Its funny when you read Mt. Holly and they talk of temps to aoa average, w/ cold front passage this weekend, and they you read CTP's and they talk warm, warm warm. theyve always emphasised this, and hence why I think they often are last to "pull the trigger". This is NOT a bash..go read them for yourselves, and read them for the last 20 years.... Its how they roll. I find it intriguing how a bias can come out in a forecast. Example...today they say the "warmth waits for noone". Well it sure does in a situation like this. Edit....and as i reread to make sure i wasnt bringing false claims...they "softened the wording" in their latest and even mentioned aoa for later this week.... I typically ready Pitt and Mt Holly as well to get a better concensus...despite the differences in geographic location and knowing what sensibly may happen in a given region. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 At least Binghamton is posting maps. State college needs to do more easily accessible and readable maps like this. I think it might help squash some of the hype mongering that happens in central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 My bad. They do have a snowfall map up. It was generated at 10:52am, four minutes before I made my earlier post. My page wasn't refreshing and reflecting the new map until I did so manually. It still doesn't explain the wide variation in ice potential between Mt Holly and them, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm on my phone so i can't really see, can someone tell me timing? Is this start mid morning tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm on my phone so i can't really see, can someone tell me timing? Is this start mid morning tomorrow? ish.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What did the Euro show? East - West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What did the Euro show? East - West? I don't have maps but I believe it increased the front end thump then past runs. 3-6" for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What did the Euro show? East - West?Read it's the same for the 6th straight run, but has a little bit more precip on the front end. My gut is telling me this for MDT is a 1-3" snow event spread out over many hours Monday so very little accumulation on roadways, followed by maybe .1-.25" zr accretion, then a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Also it is 15 outside but I have a lot of snow melting still. Sun angle for the loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z Euro per Weatherbell zoomed in regional map shows most of CTP territory in all directions at 3-4 inches of snow from the front end thump. It Now has the low going right over CarlislePaWx's house on Tuesday . The UkMet went further east & tracked the low near I-95. It will be interesting to watch the short range models from here on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Thanks for the updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH... WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Also it is 15 outside but I have a lot of snow melting still. Sun angle for the loss. I'm glad someone else is noticing how much melting occurs at bitterly cold temperatures. I was questioned about that when I said something earlier in the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm glad someone else is noticing how much melting occurs at bitterly cold temperatures. I was questioned about that when I said something earlier in the thread. Earlier I saw my thermometer in the shade was reading 13 while one in the sun reading 39... That's why there is some melting going on despite temps so cold Interesting the end times on the advisories ctp just put out... 1am and 7am Tuesday meaning "here's a start but we will see how this plays out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z Euro per Weatherbell zoomed in regional map shows most of CTP territory in all directions at 3-4 inches of snow from the front end thump. It Now has the low going right over CarlislePaWx's house on Tuesday . The UkMet went further east & tracked the low near I-95. It will be interesting to watch the short range models from here on in. LOL! Glad to see that after my super-secret meeting with the ECWMF's top-ranking officials, they agreed to shift the low back to the east. I told them I wouldn't be happy unless the low eventually passed east of me, so I'm glad to see they are listening to reason! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Maybe somewhere in that "D" zone that'll verify, but not in Harrisburg! IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 That map is pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Maybe somewhere in that "D" zone that'll verify, but not in Harrisburg! IMO Time will tell how well it verifies...but it does seem too high as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Right now I just wish this was all snow or all rain. I can't stand these slop fest/mixed/changeover events. This is where we truck drivers get burned with snow on the roofs of trailers. It's too wet to blow off, then it re-freezes into solid ice and then when it does come off it comes off in chunks that can cause damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 DT is what I call a run and gun met. He runs with the pattern he sees, then he guns or shoots out the highest amounts possible. most times he busts high with his snowfall predictions. He is not bad until the children start on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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