pawatch Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS has us going up to 41 hour 84. Not sure I'm buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Lol Nam has us getting .28 precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Lol Nam has us getting .28 precip.GFS has more TQPF than the Nam pick your poison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Pawatch, we need an advisory event bad man. This one's trending to a rainer unfortunately, I really could see us under 10 on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Stay away from I 78 in Lebanon county. 20-30 car crash with multiple entrapment. Currently 4 med helicopters enroute I've been listening to the scanner chatter from this a good bit of the day. Sounds like 3 fatalities. Pic from PennLive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 As a general FYI - keep in mind that skew-t/sounding data is going to be very important with this storm. Just because 850 line appears to be north and west or south and east doesn't determine alone if snow vs mixing. Some of the accumulated snow maps and precip type maps that some sites have don't account for temps at all levels in between 850mb and surface. It's good to use in play by play for trends so I'm not saying ignore it. As for the euro it just doesn't make sense to me to have a low track right along the mountains... I'm still feeling it's going to track close to I-81 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Pawatch, we need an advisory event bad man. This one's trending to a rainer unfortunately, I really could see us under 10 on the year.I'm to the point that I'm almost ready for spring activities.Keep in mind that skew-t/sounding data is going to be very important with this storm... Just because 850 line appears to be north and west or south and east doesn't determine alone if snow vs mixing. Some of the accumulated snow maps and precip type maps that some sites have don't account for temps at all levels in between 850mb and surfaceGood point! Thanks for your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Temp down to 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Djr what are odds we get .1 of ice or a few inches of snow up here. I'll admit I'm desperate for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 -1 already up here in Clarks Green. Going to be a brutal night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Jeep just had 7. it is getting cold. Esp since the person at the event we were at dumped an Ice tea on my jacket. when will the wsw or isw go up? I am thinking 11:00 am tomorrow for NEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Now that we're getting closer to the event, the GFS precip-type algorithm on this web site http://coolwx.com/ptype showing some areas of 0.1"-1.0" of QPF in the form of freezing rain from Garrett County MD to the Green Mountains of Vermont. The NWS offices covering these areas of PA, NY, and VT are probably considering a winter storm watch or ice storm watch. Sleet accumulation appears to be about zero. --NWS forecast for State College PA: Rain, snow, and freezing rain. Low around 25. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. --- http://coolwx.com/pt...cctype18-29.gif http://coolwx.com/pt...sptype18-22.gif http://coolwx.com/pt...sptype18-21.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Ice accumulation forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Anything more than .5" quickly causes many problems. In East Texas in the late 90s we had an ice storm with nearly 1.75" accretion. We were without power for 13 days. It looked like a bomb went off in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 And AVP ASOS flunks out on the 8pm observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Joe Bastardi on Weatherbell has a snow forecast map that shows around 6 inches near Harrisburg & 10 inches towards State College/Altoona. DT also issued his 1st Call & shows 4-8 inches from the Harrisburg area back west toward State College. Both DT & JB do also emphasize Change over to Ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM slightly less precip but colder than 18z through 45. All snow regionwide through 48 as more moderate precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Icy look 80S at 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 By 54, everyone's sleet or ZR. With it being more moderate precip, would have to think that actually serves to increase the icing threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 By 57, eastern half is warming up to be plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM looks like an ice storm special. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 LSV is torch at 54 most of CPA is ice to Frez rain. Is Euro King. Those "popular" mets might want to call down there snow amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM's caving to the Euro. Deluge coming to the eastern half. Good night on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM looks like an ice storm special. Ugh.Torch Canderson it looks like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Very heavy rain. QPF bullseye when it rains. Insert more complaint-thread-worthy material here. F**k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Torch Canderson it looks like the Euro.Ah, my bad. (I have trouble reading the temp on these models). Rain > freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This completely sucks I was critical of the NE PA folks and there consistent negative about no snow but to be sitting here looking at single digits negative numbers and then in 2 days rain. I have to say I am sorry for you northern folks this hobby can suck as we all know. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Maybe a couple inches of backlash snows for northern areas. But other than that, this is more or less looking like a Euro victory. The trailing clipper looks like it could be good for a period of moderate snow heading into Wednesday morning, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 When the Euro is locked in...curtains at least 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM's caving to the Euro. Deluge coming to the eastern half. Good night on this one. My thoughts as soon as I looked at the full run was that the NAM caved to the Euro. It was about the last holdout for a wintry, colder look to the storm. Such a shame to as there seems to be good qpf for all with this one. As it looks, for total run qpf, it shows 2"+ with only 2-3 inches of that being snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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