Voyager Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Stepped outside and the blowing snow to the face was a good wake up call. Yikes. Be safe heading up to Pottsville. The winds on 81 are going to knock you around a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Be safe heading up to Pottsville. The winds on 81 are going to knock you around a bit...Thankfully we aren't pulling a 53' trailer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Wound up with a dusting overnight, temp is now down to 9. NAM relatively unchanged from 6z through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'll take the 12z Nam for $600, Alex. Just for fun, based on seeing these types of storms for years back in the 70s and 80s, here's what they often looked like: LNS: 2" snow, then an hour of sleet, a couple of hours of freezing rain, then rain MDT: 3.5" snow, then a couple of hours of sleet, couple of hours of freezing rain, then rain UNV: 7" snow, hours of sleet eventually mixing with and changing to a bit of freezing rain then back to snow IPT: 8" snow, hours of sleet and some freezing rain, ending as snow I reserve the right to update this later. These storms tend to mix quicker and further west than expected. Seen it happen many, many times. Often my area was supposed to get 4"-6" on the front end, and after 2" I flipped to sleet. Sticking with this generalized idea for now. Perhaps remove the sleet part. I don't think ice will be much of an issue at all south/east of Harrisburg. You folks from the Blue Mountain ridge north and west...good luck with your ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Light snow into the area at 51. Still very little in the way of changes, a slight bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 At 57, more moderate precip into the southern half of the area. Critical temp lines south of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 At 57, more moderate precip into the southern half of the area. Critical temp lines south of the state. Interesting depiction with the snowfall. I'm out to hour 54 and it looks like it slides south and misses the area. Can't wait to see later frames... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 60 has everyone 0.1+ with 0.25+ up to about 40N and further up in the east. 850 line running right on or just above 40N. SFC still well east around Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 63 - it's definitely an increased ice threat for the LSV. 850 line has jumped a good bit NW to near AOO and slightly above the 81 corridor, but the SFC line is still way east of this forum. Precip varying between 0.1-0.25+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Interesting depiction with the snowfall. I'm out to hour 54 and it looks like it slides south and misses the area. Can't wait to see later frames... And then it turns the corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 66-69 has warmed most of the eastern half of the forum above freezing both 850 and the surface. Probably continued light-mod snows in true central while the east is ice to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 At 72, it's trying to pull heavy precip back into the eastern areas they cool below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 75 is very close to a backend heavy thump for the 81 corridor. Precip trying to hang in as the storm pulls away and levels are more than cold enough to support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If I had to give estimates, the LSV gets 3-5" before taint while northeastern areas are more 4-7". While eastern areas might see changeover, more than half of the progged precip has already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 66-69 has warmed most of the eastern half of the forum above freezing both 850 and the surface. Probably continued light-mod snows in true central while the east is ice to rain. I see that. It stays zr for the LSV, but warms the Poconos up quickly (elevation is the key, perhaps) so that it's all rain from me to you and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That was an ugly run for the 81 corridor and LSV. Ouch. 4km Nam isn't looking much better. Might actually be a touch colder. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It may be more snow than sleet this time around, but it "kind of" reminds of Valentine's Day 2007. We had frozen for hours, (snow then sleet) and had about 5 inches on the ground when we suddenly warmed to the low 40's for two hours and rained before flipping back to snow and getting about 4-5 more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 How much frzn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 4k is definitely colder through 60. Too bad the run ends there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Stay away from I 78 in Lebanon county. 20-30 car crash with multiple entrapment. Currently 4 med helicopters enroute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z Euro Para model brought 5 inches of snow to Harrisburg, But backed off amounts in State College/Altoona to just 6 inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The GFS is an icy disaster for some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS has quietly been advertising another wave right on the heels of the main system.. the 12z had a light to moderate snowfall come across PA at 90 & 96hr. The Canadian is showing it a bit too and the NAM at 84hr has a decent area of precip ready to roll into PA from OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 EURO relatively unchanged through 54 against 0z so far. Light snow into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 At 63 looks like it's going to be warmer than 0z. The southern half of the area is already above 0C at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 By 66, everyone except west-central is rain. They go over at 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Temps rise into the upper 40s along the 81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Verbatim it's light snow/mix then 1-2"+ rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just an ugly run all around. Wave behind the storm is worth nada and then nothing worth noting through 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just an ugly run all around. Wave behind the storm is worth nada and then nothing worth noting through 168. Yep...when the Euro shows an unfavorable outcome more than a couple runs in a row, it isn't coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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