Flatheadsickness Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 First over 30 " of snow a few weeks ago to a map that puts deep purple right over my house near Reesers Summit . I knew Haarp would come after me if I joind the forum. Thanks for the good stuff guys but I have to leave and hide from the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS continues to show a hellacious ice storm for SC PA down toward western Adams and Franklin counties. Low pressure follows straight up I95 and keeps cold air locked in at the surface through the entire storm until the very end. zr prbs.PNG That's showing .5 to .75 inch of ice for my location as well. Scary stuff if it were to verify. Outside of that, I woke up this morning to almost moderate snow falling and closing in on a half inch of accumulation (which does includes the pixie dusting from last night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That's showing .5 to .75 inch of ice for my location as well. Scary stuff if it were to verify. Outside of that, I woke up this morning to almost moderate snow falling and closing in on a half inch of accumulation (which does includes the pixie dusting from last night). I've had streamers all night at work and more working their way down into Germantown. My house probably has a good 0.1-0.25" from the echoes earlier. There was some really good ones a few hours ago with the arctic boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I live on a street named after its massive oaks . I have 4 house crushers in crushing distance . How dose the winds look with the icing I get real nervous when things get windy and or icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Sounding for MDT during the storm overnight into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I could be wrong but I think that map shows over 1" of ice over my house . That sucks, Im glad it still a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Freezing rain sucks............ Nuff said. Thank God for woodstoves.. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm not digging the frzn on that map at all. We get a couple inches of snow the that freezing rain, that'll shut this area down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Picked up about 7/10 inch from that early morning "sqaull". As for the ice, I have no doubt I'll probably get a straight down I-81 Virginia run on Tuesday. That's how it seems to work for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS continues to show a hellacious ice storm for SC PA down toward western Adams and Franklin counties. Low pressure follows straight up I95 and keeps cold air locked in at the surface through the entire storm until the very end. zr prbs.PNG Why is this depicting freezing rain when temps are above freezing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Why is this depicting freezing rain when temps are above freezing?? Actually, per the GFS, the storm is done by hour 84. Go back 12 hours and progress to hour 79. That's your ice frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Here you go Blizz. The frame before the storm shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Here you go Blizz. The frame before the storm shuts off. gfs ice.PNG Thanks, I just noticed I posted the 00z GFS... That's what happens when I stay up too late. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Thanks, I just noticed I posted the 00z GFS... That's what happens when I stay up too late. LOL Don't sweat it!! I'm on my 4th overnight and last 2 have been extended shifts. It's crazy how the body adjusts overtime haha. Only one more to go then I'm off and will enjoy the storm. I may take a drive out to western MD and then head into the WV high country during the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just looking through the morning model suites it breaks down roughly like this as far as snow goes for my backyard... GFS: 3-5 inches (tight gradient right over Schuylkill County) NAM: 3-5 inches (less gradient, more widespread) GEM: 10-12 inches (with a traditional increasing total toward the northeast) ECMWF: I don't have access to those maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just looking through the morning model suites it breaks down roughly like this as far as snow goes for my backyard... GFS: 3-5 inches (tight gradient right over Schuylkill County) NAM: 3-5 inches (less gradient, more widespread) GEM: 10-12 inches (with a traditional increasing total toward the northeast) ECMWF: I don't have access to those maps... euro still apps runner, same with ens fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 euro still apps runner, same with ens fwiw Thanks! That's what I thought. It's been rock solid with showing an apps runner for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro came in quicker and less amped, but kept the same track up along the Apps. The ensembles are west of the Apps, but a big reason for the placement is due to 4 really wound up members that take the system into Ohio which isn't happening. I think the envelope for low center is somewhere around the Blue Ridge to I95. The weaker the system, the further east it will progress and the more amped system will come west due to the interaction of the 2nd shortwave. Still would be a little concerned about ice along the 81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Praying the ice storm doesn't materialize - ice legit scared me. Headed to the funeral in an hour. Godspeed gentiemen, if we catch hypothermia and die! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looking at the GFS, would the rate of the precip actually prevent it from being zr? I know the harder the rain the less likely it can freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looking at the GFS, would the rate of the precip actually prevent it from being zr? I know the harder the rain the less likely it can freeze. A steady heavy rain would be harder to accrete so yes, heavy rain in this setup would help negate that. Light to moderate rain on the other hand is perfect for ice accretion, so the weaker the rates, the worse the ice build up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Praying the ice storm doesn't materialize - ice legit scared me. Headed to the funeral in an hour. Godspeed gentiemen, if we catch hypothermia and die! At least you'll be in the right place... Sorry, I couldn't resist, but on a sincere note, again, sorry for your loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 A winter storm watch and a flood watch sounds like a possibility this way. That would be rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 M-vile, looking at above, doesn't that show that the heavier rain doesn't arrive until after front end thump of snow a couple hour duration of frzn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 With a weaker event, less warm advection which will give the lower level cold a better chance to hold.... Seen this dance a few times. I want the weakest options out there, as better prospects of a frozen event. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looking at the GFS, would the rate of the precip actually prevent it from being zr? I know the harder the rain the less likely it can freeze. There is latent heating during freezing so surface temperatures will warm during accretion. The net warming is proportional to the precipitation rate at the surface so the heavier it rains, the greater the warming. However, the surface temperature could stay below freezing even with the latent heating if it is well below freezing before the precipitation begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If you look at the GFS ensemble, most members have some sort of frontal wave tracking near or over our region. The fact that few of the members have a super amped-up solution means that it will likely be difficult for this system to produce a ton of precipitation on the cold (snow) side of the front. The lack of decent mid-level confluence to our NE (that would promote the low-level ageostrophic flow of cold air) also doesn't help. It looks more likely that significant snowfall will be confined to a relatively narrow (with respect to longitude) portion of our region, if it affects our region at all. Therefore, getting snow vs. rain vs. freezing rain will be especially sensitive to the eventual track of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Thanks heavy, looks like another tough one to pin down. Will be fun to follow it this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ice is the worst ! Hopefully we can put down at least a few inches of snow as most models are depicting before the change over to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Stepped outside and the blowing snow to the face was a good wake up call. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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