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Central PA - February 2016


MAG5035

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My answer to the poll above.

 

SNOW on SNOW on SNOW on SNOW.

 

In my perfect world, we start in December, and don't see the ground until late March.

 

I think the melting is a downer for many (and the slop that goes along with it).  

 

Hope we get some snow on snow next Tues.  Sounds like the consensus is....well there aint none!
 

Nut

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Has he been right yet this winter?

He is really good at identifying trends, he seems to be able to match patterns well, as far as forecasts, he  misses more and tends to bust high on his snowfall amounts. If he is saying something a week away, I am listening.  If he is predicting 18 inches of snow, I am expecting 6.

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Put me down for snow every week with 2-4" each week starting Dec 15th through March 1st. After that, warm me up so baseball season can start :)

I do love a big storm so I won't deny that, but I like wall to wall winters. Idk if Voyager answered yet but I'll answer for him: Big storm on weekends only followed by warm up to melt it away. Take 2-3 each year and have zero snow fall on weekdays :P. That should do it haha

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Hey guys...for those who measure the liquid from snow I'm curious what some of you had for your storm yesterday.  I had 0.06" of rain, followed by 2.8" of snow which melted down to 0.44", giving me a total storm liquid of 0.50".  Snowfall ratio was a very wet 6:1 which reflects all the melting during the daylight hours.

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Put me down for snow every week with 2-4" each week starting Dec 15th through March 1st. After that, warm me up so baseball season can start :)

I do love a big storm so I won't deny that, but I like wall to wall winters. Idk if Voyager answered yet but I'll answer for him: Big storm on weekends only followed by warm up to melt it away. Take 2-3 each year and have zero snow fall on weekdays :P. That should do it haha

 

You have me pegged perfectly Millville! :D

 

The one thing I don't like about the 2-4 inch snowfalls is the insane amount of salt the road crews spread for those little events. Being that I drive in it for 8-11 hours a day, it gets old having to squirt the windshield every 10 minutes...or drive with a salty film to look through. At least the bigger snows they concentrate more on plowing than salting.

 

And yes, weekends only, please!!! ;)

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He is really good at identifying trends, he seems to be able to match patterns well, as far as forecasts, he  misses more and tends to bust high on his snowfall amounts. If he is saying something a week away, I am listening.  If he is predicting 18 inches of snow, I am expecting 6.

Aww - I am hurt. :(

 

After having mentioned the mid month threat for quite a while now and  y'all have to bring in a southerner - guess I'll go back to hangin in Mom's basement and hittin the other sites (puts hands in pockets, hangs head, walks on down the darkened hallway)

 

Hey guys...for those who measure the liquid from snow I'm curious what some of you had for your storm yesterday.  I had 0.06" of rain, followed by 2.8" of snow which melted down to 0.44", giving me a total storm liquid of 0.50".  Snowfall ratio was a very wet 6:1 which reflects all the melting during the daylight hours.

 

Your results are very close to mine, but I was closer to 7:1 (FWIW anyway)

 

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Would you rather have a foot of powder that melts in 3 days, or 6" of snow that flips to sleet/freezing rain that helps keep the snow pack on the ground for a few weeks? 2 winters ago we had a large snow on 2/11 and then a few days later we had a prolific ice storm. End result was snow cover that lasted into early March.

 

My thought - during a storm there's no way I'm rooting for a flip...but 3 days later when it's gone I find myself wishing it would have had ice on top to keep it around.

 

Hmm, tough question.

I guess I would have to pick the foot of powder, though. No way I could root for less snow. :)

But I agree it is neat having a glacier (like Feb 2014)  that sticks around for weeks.

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​I've been liking a coastal hugger solution for this one for the past 3 days. Now the modeling is coming around. I know it sounds like I'm just repeating the 00z suite of models, but the coastal runner track was signaled by the Bering Sea Rule even before I first mentioned this system here, back on Pg 4 (1/29/16) - the BSR and the Return Rosby Wave Train analysis were pointing us here, guys and gals.

 

I can take no credit for having figured this out on my own - only for having not dismissed a valid, non-computer modeled, analysis set. So when this started to also show on the models, that increased the confidence level from my POV.

 

It appears to be very telling that all four major model sets are honing in on the track at D4 lead time - this may miss being an actual PDIII scenario, but if it does miss - it does not look like it will miss by much.

 

Enjoy

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I was born a few days early in the very late pre blizzard  hours of Feb.17 1979 in Harrisburg hospital. My first snow memory is the blizzard of 83. My favorite storm and my first to hear thunder snow and tons of it  was 93 . I remember 96 but i did spend most of it keeping my girl friend warm in those record cold days back in high school. Now the blizzard of 2016 is my second favorite of all time only because of the lack of thunder snow and true blizzard conditions in my area. Its also the first storm I stayed out in for the full duration.  Juiced on coffee and adrenaline axe and snowblower in hand coming in only to load the fireplace, dry my coveralls And check in here at the forums. Anyways the point is bring on at least 10" or go home for me. If Someone offers me a HECS every week I would take it along with 6 hot months and 2 late night low grade derecho events a week for my eyes,garden, and soul.

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I was born a few days early in the very late pre blizzard  hours of Feb.17 1979 in Harrisburg hospital. My first snow memory is the blizzard of 83. My favorite storm and my first to hear thunder snow and tons of it  was 93 . I remember 96 but i did spend most of it keeping my girl friend warm in those record cold days back in high school. Now the blizzard of 2016 is my second favorite of all time only because of the lack of thunder snow and true blizzard conditions in my area. Its also the first storm I stayed out in for the full duration.  Juiced on coffee and adrenaline axe and snowblower in hand coming in only to load the fireplace, dry my coveralls And check in here at the forums. Anyways the point is bring on at least 10" or go home for me. If Someone offers me a HECS every week I would take it along with 6 hot months and 2 late night low grade derecho events a week for my eyes,garden, and soul.

Welcome in, Bill (btw, good name ;) )

 

Were you here on PDII? (Feb 2003)?

 

On a kidding side - I hope you took at least one or two "other kind" of breaks during the '16 blizz. I mean, all that coffee and energy drink... or is that why you had to dry those coveralls ? (LOL)

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Hey guys...for those who measure the liquid from snow I'm curious what some of you had for your storm yesterday.  I had 0.06" of rain, followed by 2.8" of snow which melted down to 0.44", giving me a total storm liquid of 0.50".  Snowfall ratio was a very wet 6:1 which reflects all the melting during the daylight hours.

When I measured at 7am on Tuesday I had 1" snow with .17" liquid.  My 7am Wednesday measurement was 4.8" new snow with .54" liquid.  Was really expecting more liquid with how wet the snow seemed but 8:1 ratio overall I believe is not bad at all to wind up with just under 6", especially when models were only projecting roughly .3-.4" qpf.

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