canderson Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Here's CTP's early take on most likely snowfall. Def the look of a widespread advisory event. StormTotalSnowWeb1.png What is timing looking like, at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 What is timing looking like, at this point? Monday evening start time through Tuesday afternoon from my view. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 0z GFS bullseyes the LSV again. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 0z GFS bullseyes the LSV again. Unreal.Isn't a whole lot of that rain, verbatim? Looks very warm but I'm bad at reading temps on these maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Isn't a whole lot of that rain, verbatim? Looks very warm but I'm bad at reading temps on these maps. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Holy crap! Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nope. Please don't shoot anyone tonight, yikes. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Please don't shoot anyone tonight, yikes. :/ I'm venting through weenie tears instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm venting through weenie tears instead. As I said earlier that bullseye has shifted on virtually every run. It could end up in southern NY or northern VA for all we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 0z GFS bullseyes the LSV again. Unreal. That's could still drift north, but I'm not sure that it has the support of the other models. Isn't it more of an outlier at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 North trend puts the bullseye right over NEPA's house for game time. Not much support for any southern shift on the tonights runs. Much of CPA looks to be in the crosshairs for the next 2 events.....verbatim. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 0z Euro Op & 0z Euro Ensemble Mean both improved for the LSV & show amounts near 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 6z GFS still looks good for the LSV. It lowered amounts from the 0z GFS run, but still shows 8 inches in Harrisburg & near 10 inches in York/Adams area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 From the look of the models, teleconnections, organic forecasting rules - we are in the deepest throes of winter and may get stuck here for an extended time pd. Temperature contrasts close by, active and juiced STJ, strong Canadian High's, split pacific jet = get ready to test your resolve gang. No matter how much or little snow fall we seen ,the cold locks it down for a while. So we could easily end up with feet and feet of snow in some places by the time we hit March. Speaking of which, I have canceled the annual March trip to Fl. I get leery of taking off and landing in the snow. Will fly down in early April just to be on the safe side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like a fun week ahead! Monday / Tuesday looks like a good wide spread adv. event. Could be an issue with start time near rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 06z GFS through 240. Its been rock solid on giving much of Pa the goods in the next 10 days. Enjoy your coffee.....(and find a way to help it verify ) I'm not cherrypicking models of most snow...I thought the GFS did a nice job w Blizz 2016...so I'm riding the bus. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Wow, just saw were getting kinda leftovers again. We can't buy even advisory events up above 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 What's the late week storm looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 From CTP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 What's the late week storm looking like? 06z verbatim is next mon/tues w a miller b w/ primary to ohio and secondary pops NE Georgia that looks like its going to head for the mouth of the DE bay, then heads due north over my house and then right over NEPA's and straight to St Zenon QB. Verbatim, nice front end to mix/change to rain, with a little changeover after it gets to NY state. Not likely the final outcome as antecedent airmass will likely pop a nice H somewhere in the eastern lakes, which might help to steer this more to to coast and points NE. Its a stemwinder for sure. that one will be the one to watch this week (while hopefully building a little base here). Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS is a Mason-Dixon line special for Monday to Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS is a Mason-Dixon line special for Monday to Wednesday... Wherever that mesoscale event sets up, someone is going to get dumped on. Lots of lift, good ratios....maybe even thunder. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS is a Mason-Dixon line special for Monday to Wednesday... Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hey guys. Feel I need to post something in regards to the upcoming storm for early this week. Been paying attention closely since I'll be impacted work wise for overnight Monday into Tueaday morning. Anyways, the signal for a nice Norlun trough signal is apparent on all the models with the southern tier south of Rt 30 as the bullseye per guidance. The Meso models I think are having a bit more difficult time for this one due to the impact of the first big storm system that'll pass out into the Atlantic (What a shame btw). The fact the NAM 12km has wavered more than the globals is a testament to the convective nature of the first system with explosive development out over the open waters of the Atlantic. This could generate a more favorable westward bias early in the run for the first storm which has implications down the line for the next system. That's why we see the NAM still not nearly as bullish as the GFS and Euro due to the inability for the 2nd low to strengthen behind the departing low pressure. The GFS and Euro are more east in the progression of the first low, allowing it to develop more, this creating a better LLJ structure leading to increased lift over the region. The better the second storm develops, the greater dynamic capabilities for this system to develop, leading to a banding structure more conducive for heavy snow and more expansive precip shield. Another thing to keep in mind will be the potential convective nature of the precip when looking at the soundings. The mid and upper profile will be really cold through the system with of course a surface temp into the 20's for the storm duration. What that leads to is a tilting back of the isotherms with an unstable layer possible for areas near the LLJ. This could lead to possible thunder in the hardest hit areas, as well as better lift in the DGZ, creating high ratio stuff along the areas hardest hit. Now, I bring this up all the time, but this will be one where they could be some localized winners/losers with the type of banding structures over the area. Someone could really cash in in one spot, but someone 15 miles away could get shafted or sit between bands. It'll be the nature of the beast. These types of setups are super tricky to pinpoint any specifics up until game time. One things for sure, someone will walk away with a nice surprise from this one. The question is who. My bet would be the line from Rt 30 south to the MD line as best spot (for now). Areas up to the turnpike should be good for a modest snow as well. Idk if I'll do any totals with this one due to prior engagements for SB festivities, but I'll be following intently. Hope everyone enjoys the game tonight and enjoys the prospects of some more snow in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hey guys. Feel I need to post something in regards to the upcoming storm for early this week. Been paying attention closely since I'll be impacted work wise for overnight Monday into Tueaday morning. Anyways, the signal for a nice Norlun trough signal is apparent on all the models with the southern tier south of Rt 30 as the bullseye per guidance. The Meso models I think are having a bit more difficult time for this one due to the impact of the first big storm system that'll pass out into the Atlantic (What a shame btw). The fact the NAM 12km has wavered more than the globals is a testament to the convective nature of the first system with explosive development out over the open waters of the Atlantic. This could generate a more favorable westward bias early in the run for the first storm which has implications down the line for the next system. That's why we see the NAM still not nearly as bullish as the GFS and Euro due to the inability for the 2nd low to strengthen behind the departing low pressure. The GFS and Euro are more east in the progression of the first low, allowing it to develop more, this creating a better LLJ structure leading to increased lift over the region. The better the second storm develops, the greater dynamic capabilities for this system to develop, leading to a banding structure more conducive for heavy snow and more expansive precip shield. Another thing to keep in mind will be the potential convective nature of the precip when looking at the soundings. The mid and upper profile will be really cold through the system with of course a surface temp into the 20's for the storm duration. What that leads to is a tilting back of the isotherms with an unstable layer possible for areas near the LLJ. This could lead to possible thunder in the hardest hit areas, as well as better lift in the DGZ, creating high ratio stuff along the areas hardest hit. Now, I bring this up all the time, but this will be one where they could be some localized winners/losers with the type of banding structures over the area. Someone could really cash in in one spot, but someone 15 miles away could get shafted or sit between bands. It'll be the nature of the beast. These types of setups are super tricky to pinpoint any specifics up until game time. One things for sure, someone will walk away with a nice surprise from this one. The question is who. My bet would be the line from Rt 30 south to the MD line as best spot (for now). Areas up to the turnpike should be good for a modest snow as well. Idk if I'll do any totals with this one due to prior engagements for SB festivities, but I'll be following intently. Hope everyone enjoys the game tonight and enjoys the prospects of some more snow in the area Thanks Milleville. Thunder....wow. That's a rarity w/ a system like this. Lets name this one "ThunderNor" Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Thanks Milleville. Thunder....wow. That's a rarity w/ a system like this. Lets name this one "ThunderNor" Nut Haha. I hope we can sneak some thunder out of this. Would be a nice touch on this complex setup. If not, I still think someone will get hit pretty good. I think 83 Blizzard and Mappy have some decent prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Anyways, the signal for a nice Norlun trough signal is apparent on all the models with the southern tier south of Rt 30 as the bullseye per guidance. Thanks for the great analysis, Millville! Now, do you (or anyone else) have an idea why so many times south of route 30 is, or seems to be, the best area for a Norlun to develop? It seems that most times, in most events, it sets up somewhere near the M-D line. Is it georgraphy, climatology, or just how the interaction between the two systems seems to setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Haha. I hope we can sneak some thunder out of this. Would be a nice touch on this complex setup. If not, I still think someone will get hit pretty good. I think 83 Blizzard and Mappy have some decent prospects. I think you should forecast 6-10" for MDT like that last storm. (just teasing!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Thanks for the great analysis, Millville! Now, do you (or anyone else) have an idea why so many times south of route 30 is, or seems to be, the best area for a Norlun to develop? It seems that most times, in most events, it sets up somewhere near the M-D line. Is it georgraphy, climatology, or just how the interaction between the two systems seems to setup? That's a good question. I don't know if there's a general reason why but I think the geography plays a little on the role of banding. The fact the elevation rises over 850' up to 1100' in the southern tier allows for colder temps and maybe some general lift. Climatologically, low pressures set up along areas of baroclinicity and the best spot seems to setup from Norfolk up the benchmark, so lows trek along that boundary, leading to best LLJ development over the same areas all the time on a coastal development. That would actually be a sweet case study for someone to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think you should forecast 6-10" for MDT like that last storm. (just teasing!) Haha. I still can't believe the bust I had on that one, but you'll gladly accept my bust on that one I think MDT is good for 3-6" with this one. Take that for what it's worth (Which means get ready to get obliterated with my current seasonal track record ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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