MAG5035 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Have a new thread ready to go for discussion of the upcoming pattern. Right now it looks quiet, with things looking to go zonal and warm up later this week. Next storm threat might be D8-10, but looks like a cutter in the very early going. Models advertising a pretty strong high over the top of it, so always possible this comes south in time. But looks kinda meh the next week or two with the NAO/AO swinging positive and running a bit of a +EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 No storm next Saturday, please. That's all I ask right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Post mortem - - #2 all time for Lancaster. Did not quite eclipse 1996. - Fabulous job by the red taggers sharing information and thoughts. Nice to have a place to check out the real story. - Props to most models. They had this one sniffed out a week in advance. Pretty impressive. - I have somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 tons of snow to move today. Next door neighbor is trapped on vacation in Mexico (gee, tough break) so 2 driveways to open :-( - Congratulations to all those who broke their all time records. When we're all old and gray (at least those who aren't there already), this will be the source of those "remember when..." stories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 No storm next Saturday, please. That's all I ask right now. It's there, but like you said, most models show it out to sea at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Must say, with over 2' of snow on the ground and the sun rising, there is no better view for a snow lover to wake up to. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 What a suprise corporate wants our store opened today. Landlord hasnt even touched the parking lot and everything I shoveled is blown right back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 It's there, but like you said, most models show it out to sea at this point. The Euro EPS mean tracks this next Thurs pm/Friday from the coast of NC & goes out to sea from there. There are a few members that bring this up the coast, but most members take it out to sea for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Then you look at your car buried and think where do I begin...LMAO. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Then you look at your car buried and think where do I begin...LMAO. We all went out yesterday when we were at about the 10" mark and cleaned everything up. It may be double work, but it doesn't feel as overwhelming as it would had we waited and had to clean the whole 20 inches today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I thought all models did a great job showing the potential days in advance. El Niño with shifting indices are money for us. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 It seems that all the global models are showing a storm along and off the coast for the 29th time frame. They're all out to sea at the moment, but the storm is there. Time will tell what the outcome will be. Do we lose it altogether, does it stay a fish storm, or does it ride the coast and we get another one, be it rain, snow, or a mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Where I live at I didn't see a single snowflake yesterday. And that's how this storm will be remembered by me. I was impressed by the really sharp cutoff it had. 30 miles away 14" It will be interesting in the weeks/years to come seeing the discussions and theory about this storm. Sunny 14 degrees cold here this morning. Gonna smoke some wings today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Yeah, voyager, that one also has potential. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Zero degrees here this morning with 23 -26 inches of snow on the ground! This is an old fashioned winter . These are the ones that our grandparents used to tell us about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 even if we didn't get crippling storms here, it was fun to watch. It also shows the fickleness of weather. The most amazing part for me was not the amount of snow but how the models showed a huge cutoff days out. Living on the edge has really tested my patience and my "forecasting skills". for the last few days I was telling the my team at work ( I am a member of the disaster planning team) that 4 to 8 inches was a real possibility. When is the next storm??? we are only 10 inches behind... Also mark your calendars 9 months from now there will be a baby boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I'm not going to be able to get out of my garage until,Easter. Holy Jesus please no weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Hope we can get in on some of those insane amounts with the next big one this winter. PIT-FIG-UNV-IPT-AVP corridor, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Sure is beautiful out there this morning with 4.7" on the ground and still on the trees. Whew... snow sure is hard work - spent all of 5 minutes clearing the powder off my car and was able to back out of my spot without any shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 What a crazy storm this ended up being from a meteorological stand point and just the entire scale of impact on the social side. Many places will be buried for days with a long wait for some areas to even see a plow. This is one for the record books across the board and really happy that most people cashed in. That being said, I want to apologize for the pathetic forecast I gave for almost the entire sub forum. This was a valuable lesson in discounting a model (In this case the NAM) because of my opinion of it being inferior. Despite the fact the NAM kept coming with a northern shift, I kept discounting which is a big no no and no excuse on my part as a meteorologist and forecaster. I feel bummed on how bad I screwed this one up for you guys north of Rt 30 up to I80. I had a good overall handle on things south of 30 since that's the area I grew up and are accustomed to, but still, I need to be better and take a hint when a model isn;t jumping around and was as rock steady as the NAM was. I give a round of applause to that guidance. That and the GFS were on their game. Hope y'all can trust me next time for my opinion. On another note, will have the snowfall contest up to date by this afternoon and will put out a summary so far after the big event. Some people just got a real good start to that one haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 What a crazy storm this ended up being from a meteorological stand point and just the entire scale of impact on the social side. Many places will be buried for days with a long wait for some areas to even see a plow. This is one for the record books across the board and really happy that most people cashed in. That being said, I want to apologize for the pathetic forecast I gave for almost the entire sub forum. This was a valuable lesson in discounting a model (In this case the NAM) because of my opinion of it being inferior. Despite the fact the NAM kept coming with a northern shift, I kept discounting which is a big no no and no excuse on my part as a meteorologist and forecaster. I feel bummed on how bad I screwed this one up for you guys north of Rt 30 up to I80. I had a good overall handle on things south of 30 since that's the area I grew up and are accustomed to, but still, I need to be better and take a hint when a model isn;t jumping around and was as rock steady as the NAM was. I give a round of applause to that guidance. That and the GFS were on their game. Hope y'all can trust me next time for my opinion. On another note, will have the snowfall contest up to date by this afternoon and will put out a summary so far after the big event. Some people just got a real good start to that one haha No need to apologize, Millville. With every big storm there comes a learning experience. I certainly appreciate (and I know everyone else does too) your professional expertise and commentary in our subforum. Hopefully you can share some of the aspects of what you learn about model behavior, etc, with us going forward. You can tell us what the opinions of your colleagues might have been and what ultimately led you to draw the conclusions that you did for your forecasts. We all want to learn and to keep on learning as we just enjoy our perpetual weenieness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Just to give you perspective of what life is like in Harrisburg today, I present my house. I'm going no where for at least a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Just to give you perspective of what life is like in Harrisburg today, I present my house. I'm going no where for at least a week. http://s27.postimg.org/at0vloicz/image.jpg[/img[ What are the chances the state closes tomorrow for non-essential employees? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Hope we can get in on some of those insane amounts with the next big one this winter. PIT-FIG-UNV-IPT-AVP corridor, please. Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 What are the chances the state closes tomorrow for non-essential employees? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I see no way it's open. None. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Millville, we are all happy you are here and share your thoughts with us. No need for an apology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 NWS liquid precipitation analysis Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 12z EURO brings next week's event much closer to the coast with precip back into the eastern part of the state. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 What a crazy storm this ended up being from a meteorological stand point and just the entire scale of impact on the social side. Many places will be buried for days with a long wait for some areas to even see a plow. This is one for the record books across the board and really happy that most people cashed in. That being said, I want to apologize for the pathetic forecast I gave for almost the entire sub forum. This was a valuable lesson in discounting a model (In this case the NAM) because of my opinion of it being inferior. Despite the fact the NAM kept coming with a northern shift, I kept discounting which is a big no no and no excuse on my part as a meteorologist and forecaster. I feel bummed on how bad I screwed this one up for you guys north of Rt 30 up to I80. I had a good overall handle on things south of 30 since that's the area I grew up and are accustomed to, but still, I need to be better and take a hint when a model isn;t jumping around and was as rock steady as the NAM was. I give a round of applause to that guidance. That and the GFS were on their game. Hope y'all can trust me next time for my opinion. On another note, will have the snowfall contest up to date by this afternoon and will put out a summary so far after the big event. Some people just got a real good start to that one haha This was literally impossible to forecast up here. Wes and Will, great mets like yourself, thought MDT would be lucky to get 8". No one on this planet expected us to get a record storm, much less 30.2". That's once in a generation stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Hope we can get in on some of those insane amounts with the next big one this winter. PIT-FIG-UNV-IPT-AVP corridor, please. 30 Miles SE of Pittsburgh got 15 Inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 NWS liquid precipitation analysis Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Thanks for posting this. This map confirms the lower precip for the Ephrata area. I was starting to second guess my snowfall measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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