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Lessons Learned - what we can learn from the Jan 22/23 snowstorm/blizzard

tarheelwx

By tarheelwx,
in Southeastern States

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
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Trust radar/satellite trends over HRRR with mesoscale bands. Probably obvious, but I had my hope up too high last evening for additional 4 inches of snow.

Don't underestimate upsloping in US-74 corridor of Foothills. They got a bit more than I was expecting.

Also, Boone don't necessary get more snow than Asheville automatically. They didn't get as much from main event as AVL, but they caught up thanks to NWF snow.

Bingo about the US-74 upsloping. Happens a lot and I got to watch it to my north and west last night.

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The Alchemist

The Alchemist

Posted
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Lesson learned, 1) No matter what I read in the model run PBP, don't get caught up in the hype. 2) those guys at the NWS GSP know what they are doing, if they post a call map believe it. 3) stay the course, continue to read more and post less. 4) being in Saluda NC I should lurk the mountain thread more during events... Most of the time my climo is more like AVL

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
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Well the models weren't really wrong about the strength of the storm were they? A large section of northern VA and western MD got 30+ inches. Isolated 40" in WV panhandle. They just overestimated our totals in NC a little bit...

Once there is one run of one model showing historic MA or NE snowstorm ,7 days out, book it
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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
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The biggest lesson was is that the NAM does best with temp profiles within 48 hours...even though it busted with surface temps it had the better overall idea. The bottom line is, most of don't post on this forum because we want to work at GSP or dream of 1/2 inch snows...we do it for the idea that we could get a monster storm like VA got. Biggest lesson I learned is that watching the weather and being on this forum is fun...even during "busts" like this one. 

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FranknRaleigh

FranknRaleigh

Posted
Posted

Use models and various comments from forum posters for what they really are:  guides, not gospels; and calculated estimates at a given point in time while looking for a future event to occur.  Both economic and weather models use samples of data in an attempt to establish a trend.  Both professionals are observing and interpreting those respective trends and IF we do our jobs right, the POSIBILITIES our cumulative modeling samples illustrate become PROBILITIES of an outcome.

 

The short take and advice is this:  translate models and interpretations loosely.  And, understand that no matter how good you may think a particular model or forecast will depict a weather event, the final outcome will always be somewhat different at best.  We are all winter weather weenies, even the pros.  Objectivity is not part of our DNA and we each are going to root for the model or forecast we individually want to see occur.  But, the outcome "is what it is", and always will be.

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Tullioz

Tullioz

Posted
Posted

The biggest lesson to take away from this is to never forget where you live. If the models are showing 12", 18", to as much as 30" with some runs in your backyard, and there have only been three storms in the past 35 years that have eclipsed a foot, you need to make sure the set up is perfect. If not, you are going to be very disappointed at the end of the day.
 

Jan '87 is the only storm I can remember that gave Eden, NC over a foot of snow without much if any in the way of sleet or freezing rain. The only other events of a foot or more that I can recall were March '93 and Jan. '96. Both of those systems had several hours of sleet which cut the potential accumulations down.

As beautiful as the snowfall accumulation maps look for Rockingham County, NC right now, based on personal experience only, I am not expecting more than 10" from this system. There will likely be an extended period of sleet mixing in due to the warm nose sneaking in, and if that doesn't cut back the forecast totals; another concern is the energy transferring to the coast to fast. I have seen this many times in situations like this and it often results in the heaviest axis of precipitation shifting east a lot faster than the models show.

It will be a lot of fun to see how this system plays out either way.

 
Personal experience can go a long way in curbing expectations from a pending storm regardless of what the models may be showing.

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nomanslandva

nomanslandva

Posted
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Euro QPF was not wrong, it was just way farther north or the cut off of the best qpf was much sharper .  Euro had us getting very good backside deformation snow and that did not happen at all.  Was this the ull being farther north like the American models showed?  They consistently showed a minimum in this area with the backside stuff not really getting south of I64.  GFS QPF here was normally around 1.5 the last several days and think that was close to reality for us.

Agree, if NAM shows a warm nose, trust it and trust it will be even a bit stronger!

 

HRRR and RAP both failed on backside snow here for the daytime snowfall too.  Both showed light snow until 18 -21z and we had nothing measurable after about 8:00 am. 

Cleanup and firewood duty with 13" is enough work for me!

 

Fun storm and you guys on this form make it better!

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
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Could somebody post a map with the true track of the ULL as well as the SLP from this storm?  Would like to get an idea of how that really finalized.

 

Not sure on the ULL but the SLP tracked up between Morehead and Lookout then NE up across the west side of the sounds .....needed it 100-150 miles further east...then me and especially you guys would have been all snow.....I ended up with 3" of rain, would love to have traded half that QPF for a further east track and all snow.....would have been epic. 

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

Just a little bit.... ;)

 

attachicon.gifasnow.jpg

Don't use the clown maps. I don't know why people do this. You have to look at hour by hour soundings and use that to consider p-type and rates. Even then, you have to consider whether it'll be a solid shield or scattered and how that will influence p-type (ZR between heavier rates, vs. snow the whole time). Unless there's good evidence it'll be a solid band for a while with no warm nose, don't assume there won't be p-type problems. The clown maps don't seem to take these things into account. People keep posting them and people get burned.

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

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Don't use the clown maps. I don't know why people do this. You have to look at hour by hour soundings and use that to consider p-type and rates. Even then, you have to consider whether it'll be a solid shield or scattered and how that will influence p-type (ZR between heavier rates, vs. snow the whole time). Unless there's good evidence it'll be a solid band for a while with no warm nose, don't assume there won't be p-type problems. The clown maps don't seem to take these things into account. People keep posting them and people get burned.

Great Point.  I remember the same thing happening last year. 

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