Lessons Learned - what we can learn from the Jan 22/23 snowstorm/blizzard

[tarheelwx]

Looking back, what did we learn?

[WFFaithful]

Believe the NAM when it has a strong warm nose.

[tarheelwx]

As usual, temps in CAD regions were a bit colder than models showed, even close to the event.

Never underestimate the warm nose. It has been underplayed many times I the last few years, and we should have seen it coming.

Euro took the lead on a big ticket storm.

Should have cut the precip in half in dry slot prone areas.

TW

[superjames1992]

CAD is usually underdone and doesn't get eroded as fast as expected.

 

The NAM picks up on warm noses well in the mid-levels.

 

Don't trust the QPF, at least for Miller Bs.

 

Always pay attention to warm noses above 850 mb (in our case, we had a bad one from 750-850 mb, which the NAM nailed).

[mackerel_sky]

When people say, don't worry about it being 50 degrees 8 hours before the start of supposed winter precip, BS! Our biggest snows have come after a warm day! BS!

One truth, fear the 85 and North snow line, it's alive and well!

[kvegas-wx]

Believe the NAM when it has a strong warm nose.

+infinity.

[SnowNiner]

Don't count on wrap around snows/precip west of 77 once the storm gets to the coast. That just doesn't work, no matter how strong the storm is. Unless you're just looking token showers.

[WxBlue]

Trust radar/satellite trends over HRRR with mesoscale bands. Probably obvious, but I had my hope up too high last evening for additional 4 inches of snow.

 

Don't underestimate upsloping in US-74 corridor of Foothills. They got a bit more than I was expecting.

 

Also, Boone don't necessary get more snow than Asheville automatically. They didn't get as much from main event as AVL, but they caught up thanks to NWF snow.

[mackerel_sky]

Don't count on wrap around snows/precip west of 77 once the storm gets to the coast. That just doesn't work, no matter how strong the storm is. Unless you're just looking token showers.

I got my 1 1/2 and only snow from wraparound

[Tacoma]

Don't trust HRRR, showed  Asheville would get 4-6 inches of snow last night and I think I got 1/2 inch, maybe so was a little let down but I can't complain with 11 inches where I live, Great Storm for us in the Southern and Central Mtns.  North of us did not do as well where as usually they score big.

[mackerel_sky]

Trust the NAM inside 12-24 hours, no matter what the big 3 say

[superjames1992]

Beware of getting HRRR'd and RAP'd, but I already knew that.  But I also never learn.

[tarheelwx]

Don't count on wrap around snows/precip west of 77 once the storm gets to the coast. That just doesn't work, no matter how strong the storm is. Unless you're just looking token showers.

NEVER works in the triad either. TW

[No snow for you]

Never trust the GFS

[tarheelwx]

Deformation band is overrated from the standpoint it is like winning the lottery - you can win big but it rarely happens. TW

[BullCityWx]

Don't cancel the event 6 hours ahead of schedule

[Cold Rain]

Listen to Cold Rain next time!

[lilj4425]

Don't cancel the event 6 hours ahead of schedule

Agreed. Cancel it 12 hours before instead.

[Jet Stream Rider]

Euro picked it up early and held it pretty well for the basic system. Cut qpf in half.

 

NAM correctly identified the warm nose. However it overdid it. Remember how large an area was predicted to have zr? We ended up with not as strong a warm nose so it was shallower and we got all that ip instead. Still the NAM picked up the pattern.

[BullCityWx]

Euro picked it up early and held it pretty well for the basic system. Cut qpf in half.

NAM correctly identified the warm nose. However it overdid it. Remember how large an area was predicted to have zr? We ended up with not as strong a warm nose so it was shallower and we got all that ip instead. Still the NAM picked up the pattern.

NAM also busted way too warm on surface temps

[superjames1992]

NAM also busted way too warm on surface temps

 

Yeah, if the NAM was to be believed, there would have been basically no wintry weather in SC or GA.  That was obviously way off.  It did well with the mid-level warm nose, but absolutely terribly with surface CAD.

[mrdaddyman]

Can't beat climo 99% of the time.

[NCSNOW]

Euro when it matches it's ens 120 out is still in charge. I'll be paying attn to nam MIDLEVELS 24 hrs on in from now on. Qpf was about half of what was advertised for triad northern foothills. But it wasn't gulf thunderstorms robbing, it's typical in miller Bs. The old carolina split, even if this one happened futher south in a strong nino, should have remeber ed this old rule of thumb. Only disapointment I had was the almost non existent front end thump. Might had flakes for 10 mins before going straight sleet. Nam caught it and I chose to write off

[BIG FROSTY]

Now on I trust radar not short rage models (They Lie every storm)  I know sometimes precip breaks out overhead which radar can't show. But when there is big holes, broken up radar returns, it's real and don't fill back in most of the time........ And as already been mentioned a Coastal it worthless west of Winston-Salem 99.9% of the time............. 

 

The biggest thing I've learned is if you want BIG SNOWS you gotta move father north than NC! Closer to the coast to get the Atlantic moisture feed, but high enough latitude that you have the cold temperatures! Fact is big snows are very rare in the south just don't happen much..........  Most of the time outside of the mountains I consider a 3-6 inch storm is a big storm for us...... We do better with a good overrunning event, which seems to never happen anymore? Anybody know why that seems to never happen anymore??   I don't like the looks of the pattern breaking down this late in the game. the MJO is forecasted to go into a very warm phase for Feb. Just hope it's wrong!

[tarheelwx]

Did any model do well on surface temps? GSO was at 22 for the bulk of the storm. I think that was at least 3-4 degrees below the coldest GFS or nam runs.

TW

[Isopycnic]

Don't EVER volunteer to clear snow at work when the predominate precip is sleet.... even if it means overtime and $10/hr inclement weather pay. 

[tarheelwx]

Don't EVER volunteer to clear snow at work when the predominate precip is sleet.... even if it means overtime and $10/hr inclement weather pay.

. You should charge by the pound.

[superjames1992]

My lesson learned is that I need to move to Winchester, VA.

[lilj4425]

My lesson learned is to next time drink more alcohol. Wooo.

[SteveVa]

I learned that when they say heavy snow throughout Virginia they don't think about Va Beach