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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2


Ian

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21", but that is an estimate at best. Have a drift that is more like a big plateau in my backyard at 27".

Edit - no way I'm losing to DCA

I'm in East Falls Church in Arlington and that sounds about right to me. It's definitely difficult to measure at this point

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What was your last "good" measurement, in your opinion? You're only a mile or two up the road from me, and I've had a heckuva time tryinng to get decent readings on my two boards today. After most recent bands have come through, I *think* I'm up to 19-20"....but I have only medium confidence in that, based on so much blowing snow.

I really haven't tried much once it started pouring and blowing. I've tried to watch what areas seem less drifty.

I am guessing I will have enough to get to at least 22" but will wait for things to die down a bit more before attempting

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They have ~18" as of 2 minutes ago...approaching PD1?

 

METAR KDCA 232152Z 34023G32KT 1/16SM R01/1800V2000FT SN BLSN FG VV006 M03/M05 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 34036/2118 SLP044 SNINCR 1/18 P0002 T10331050 $

 

That makes more sense. I'm sure we'll break 20"

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Now it is amended to show 8.5" on day...which would be 14.9" on event, which was their 1pm ob....I know these guys at LWX and FAA are tired..hopefully they will work it out soon....obviously around 18"

 

It has to be around 18" or so otherwise someone is doing something wrong.

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Hard to say if the final band over HGR holds together once it gets here. At least one more good band to move through DCA now. Hopefully somehow someway DCA can hit 20"

 

How much do you have, Bob?  I live near you, but I'm not measuring...  Measuring vicariously...

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Paul Kocin, others, and I were talking about SNOW DEPTH vs. SNOW FALL.  Folks, this has always been, and continues to be an inexact science.  The depth is easy -- it is what it is.  Here at the NCWCP, it was around 17" as of 4 pm (on average).  Snow FALL?  We're estimating 19", but it could be higher considering the blowing off the boards.  

 

The thing is, if we're all getting liquid equivalents over 2", in some areas well over 2", then I think there's more of a risk that we're underestimating amounts (compaction, blowing, etc) vs. overestimating. 

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