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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2


Ian

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   fair point.   I don't think it ever shuts off in DC for a few hours, but the accumulating snow is still really patchy, and it's hard to get the bigger totals until the core of the deformation band pivots back over us.

 

yea, i'm just glad it's not a complete lull here because i like the daytime snow.  i experienced enough crazy rates last night that i think i'm ok for now lol.  you know you have a hecs in the making when cars are starting to get pretty close to being completely hidden.

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yea, i'm just glad it's not a complete lull here because i like the daytime snow.  i experienced enough crazy rates last night that i think i'm ok for now lol.  you know you have a hecs in the making when cars are starting to get pretty close to being completely hidden.

roads arent very well cleared either, think crews getting some shut eye, several on side of road, they definitely need it,

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 as a WAG, I'd say worse than 10:1 early transitioning to better than 10:1 during the evening

 

Going by the 0.3-0.6 liquid equivalent you mentioned from the NAM nest, that looks in line with LWX's forecast of an additional 4-8" over the general metro area (and another 1-2" this evening, I think they say as well).

 

(ETA:  Or perhaps I should reverse that and say that LWX's forecast sounds in line with the QPF and ratio estimates you posted.)

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Absolutely! Deform banding can sometimes be unreal!! And you will see that the radar intensities will "look" like lighter snows, but ratios will jump a bit later today, thus rates may actually be better (2-3"/hr.) Dendrites will be better too, as the winds calm down a bit...I'd peg DCA's final at 30" plus or minus 3"....

 

Thanks for the answer! The ratio thing makes sense. I'm just always skeptical of DC reporting such a high total given their history of being quite low. Not to mention radar doesn't look super impressive for DC proper at this time. But it seems like it is improving :) Thanks for your post!!!

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roads arent very well cleared either, think crews getting some shut eye, several on side of road, they definitely need it,

 

it was a slalom out there even before the crazy stuff came in after midnight.  96 and 03 were similar to me in the way the roads and cars looked.  i think it's the drifting that made 96 a big one for me here and that looks to be the case.  this is on that level.

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Short range models did pretty well with the 14-18" by morning. I think they were slightly on the high end but not insane. Almost unfathomable to think we could do this all over again.

 

Yeah all the short range models seemed 4-6 inches too high as of this morning. So just subtract 4-6 from what they are showing the rest of the time. I wonder if part of the issue with it being off overnight was sleet mixing in and bad ratios.

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