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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2


Ian

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My yard stick is snowed in on the deck, but looking at it about 20" on the deck surface. Tried to tackle the driveway but half way though white out conditions hit. We can barley see the row of town home across from ours right now. 

 

*one note 38 years ago yesterday in NW Ohio was the Blizzard of 78. I remember it vividly. Had to use a sled to walk to the grocery store to get food. Massive drifts and some awesome snow tunnels. 

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6z NAM nest seems to have had a good handle on the evolution of the dry slot.   It definitely brings heavier snow back through much of DC/Baltimore metro, but it takes a few more hours to rotate back over us.    But its idea of an additional  0.3-0.6" liquid equivalent seems more plausible to me than the HRRR's 1"+

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6z NAM nest seems to have had a good handle on the evolution of the dry slot.   It definitely brings heavier snow back through much of DC/Baltimore metro, but it takes a few more hours to rotate back over us.    But its idea of an additional  0.3-0.6" liquid equivalent seems more plausible to me than the HRRR's 1"+

 

Would we be talking about 10:1 SR's?  Or a bit better?

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WWUS41 KLWX 231435

WSWLWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE

CHESAPEAKE BAY TODAY.

VAZ508-232245-

/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/

CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-

935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 2 FEET.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS

  EVENING. BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THREATENING LIFE AND

  PROPERTY. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO. DO NOT TRAVEL.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF

YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF

POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

VAZ507-232245-

/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/

NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-

935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 2 FEET.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS

  EVENING. BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THREATENING LIFE AND

  PROPERTY. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO. DO NOT TRAVEL.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF

YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF

POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MDZ016>018-VAZ052-055>057-232245-

/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/

CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-

STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-

935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BLOWING

  SNOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE

  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO

  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. WIND CHILLS LOW TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF

YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF

POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503>506-VAZ053-054-505-506-232245-

/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-

NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-

NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-

935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...24

  TO 28 INCHES WEST.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BLOWING SNOW INTO

  SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE

  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO

  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF

YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF

POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MDZ004>006-011-507-508-232245-

/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/

FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-

NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-

935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...22 TO 30 INCHES...UP TO 36 INCHES ABOVE

  1200 FEET.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BLOWING SNOW INTO

  SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE

  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO

  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS SINGLE DIGITS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF

YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF

POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

VAZ025-026-036>038-503-504-WVZ505-506-232245-

/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/

AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-

EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-

935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES PIEDMONT...18 TO 24 INCHES

  CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...24 TO 30 INCHES ON RIDGES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BLOWING

  SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE

  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO

  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE

A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH

YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING

SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

VAZ027-029-030-039-040-050-051-501-502-WVZ055-501-502-232245-

/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/

SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-

NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-

EASTERN GRANT-

935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 24 INCHES ON THE PIEDMONT...24 TO 30

  INCHES IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...30 OR MORE INCHES IN THE

  ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

  BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE

  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO

  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE

A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH

YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING

SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

VAZ028-031-WVZ050-053-503-504-232245-

/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/

FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-JEFFERSON-WESTERN MINERAL-

EASTERN MINERAL-

935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...24 TO 30 INCHES.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. BLOWING

  SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE

  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO

  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE

  DIGITS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE

A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH

YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING

SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MDZ003-501-502-WVZ051-052-232245-

/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/

WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-

MORGAN-BERKELEY-

935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...24 TO 30 INCHES.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. BLOWING

  SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE

  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO

  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE

  DIGITS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE

A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH

YOUR VEHICLE.PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING

SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

 

is this in addition to what as already fallen? 

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6z NAM nest seems to have had a good handle on the evolution of the dry slot.   It definitely brings heavier snow back through much of DC/Baltimore metro, but it takes a few more hours to rotate back over us.    But its idea of an additional  0.3-0.6" liquid equivalent seems more plausible to me than the HRRR's 1"+

 

not sure dc ever really completely dry slots.  still a little bandy, enough to keep the snow going, just on the lighter side.  i'm just nw of dc, and it's still going here.  i'm up to around 20", but it got pretty hard to measure overnight (unofficially).

 

i don't actually mind a little break so i can go out and take pics, but by noon i'll be ready for the heaviers again.

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   fair point.   I don't think it ever shuts off in DC for a few hours, but the accumulating snow is still really patchy, and it's hard to get the bigger totals until the core of the deformation band pivots back over us.

 

not sure dc ever really completely dry slots.  still a little bandy, enough to keep the snow going, just on the lighter side.  i'm just nw of dc, and it's still going here.  i'm up to around 20", but it got pretty hard to measure overnight (unofficially).

 

i don't actually mind a little break so i can go out and take pics, but by noon i'll be ready for the heaviers again.

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