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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2


Ian

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I'm rooting hard for DCA to crack 20", finally, and maybe even sneak up to #2 all time. As good as this storm looked and is turning out, I never felt the Knickerbocker was really in play. That event is simply way up there.

 

I wish they had an official downtown measuring spot since Knickerbocker's 28" was in town.  If DC gets lucky with bands today and a spotter in DC records over 28", it beats Knickerbocker IMO, even though it wouldn't be official.

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WWUS41 KLWX 231435
WSWLWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY TODAY.

VAZ508-232245-
/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-
935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 2 FEET.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
  EVENING. BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THREATENING LIFE AND
  PROPERTY. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO. DO NOT TRAVEL.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

VAZ507-232245-
/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/
NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-
935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 2 FEET.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
  EVENING. BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THREATENING LIFE AND
  PROPERTY. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO. DO NOT TRAVEL.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MDZ016>018-VAZ052-055>057-232245-
/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/
CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-
STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-
935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BLOWING
  SNOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO
  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. WIND CHILLS LOW TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503>506-VAZ053-054-505-506-232245-
/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...24
  TO 28 INCHES WEST.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BLOWING SNOW INTO
  SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO
  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MDZ004>006-011-507-508-232245-
/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/
FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...22 TO 30 INCHES...UP TO 36 INCHES ABOVE
  1200 FEET.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BLOWING SNOW INTO
  SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO
  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS SINGLE DIGITS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

VAZ025-026-036>038-503-504-WVZ505-506-232245-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES PIEDMONT...18 TO 24 INCHES
  CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...24 TO 30 INCHES ON RIDGES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BLOWING
  SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO
  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE
A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH
YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING
SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

VAZ027-029-030-039-040-050-051-501-502-WVZ055-501-502-232245-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/
SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-
935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 24 INCHES ON THE PIEDMONT...24 TO 30
  INCHES IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...30 OR MORE INCHES IN THE
  ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
  BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO
  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE
A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH
YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING
SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

VAZ028-031-WVZ050-053-503-504-232245-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/
FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-JEFFERSON-WESTERN MINERAL-
EASTERN MINERAL-
935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...24 TO 30 INCHES.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. BLOWING
  SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO
  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
  DIGITS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE
A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH
YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING
SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MDZ003-501-502-WVZ051-052-232245-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/
WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
MORGAN-BERKELEY-
935 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...24 TO 30 INCHES.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. BLOWING
  SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
  DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
  TRAVEL IS IMPOSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO
  AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
  DIGITS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE
A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH
YOUR VEHICLE.PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING
SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
 

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Ok...now I don't feel crazy. I just measured again and I am near you...

 

Yeah, going to go measure again around 10am... probably another half inch/inch now. At a slightly higher elevation than DC in general - in the hills of SE DC - but not sure that helps much (probably some).

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It was thunder. Plenty of people around lower MoCo heard it.

Cool if it was! There have been occasional plows going through the parking lot here and down the street so wasn't sure. It seemed too loud for the back lot (and not from that direction) and rumbled too long it seems for a plow passing along the road.

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Do you think they have a shot at the 30+ simply due to duration of light-mod snows throughout the day? Or do you think there will continue to be intensification of the banding type features to the south and a prolonged increase in the snow intensity again?

Absolutely! Deform banding can sometimes be unreal!! And you will see that the radar intensities will "look" like lighter snows, but ratios will jump a bit later today, thus rates may actually be better (2-3"/hr.) Dendrites will be better too, as the winds calm down a bit...I'd peg DCA's final at 30" plus or minus 3"....

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I know most of you guys are in DC/ NOVA/MD. What an epic storm up there!! I'm from Richmond and we got shafted with sleet after 6 inches of snow at onset. They expected 17inches here but that's not happening. Holding out a little hope on the wraparound bands can add 4-5 more here today. Anyone see Richmond getting more then 5 inches today? Thx

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Absolutely! Deform banding can sometimes be unreal!! And you will see that the radar intensities will "look" like lighter snows, but ratios will jump a bit later today, thus rates may actually be better (2-3"/hr.) Dendrites will be better too, as the winds calm down a bit...I'd peg DCA's final at 30" plus or minus 3"....

Someone get this man a beer.

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Cool if it was! There have been occasional plows going through the parking lot here and down the street so wasn't sure. It seemed too loud for the back lot (and not from that direction) and rumbled too long it seems for a plow passing along the road.

Many posters here confirmed thundersnow either side of 6am, self included. Go back to those posts to see who and when.

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