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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2


Ian

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".NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...LAND AND BUOY OBS INDICATE 988 MB

LOW OFF OF THE NC/VA BORDER CLOSER TO THE GFS FCST POSITION. DEEP
CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA OF ERN KY/SRN WV/SW
VA BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPECIAL 06Z UPPER AIR PLOTS
FROM REGIONAL SITES. MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT IS PIVOTING NWD ACROSS THE
TIDEWATER AREA ABOUT TO MOVE INTO SRN MD. LATEST GFS APPEARS TO
HAVE BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN ECMWF WITH ALL FEATURES...SFC
POSITION...CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. BASED ON THIS
SOLUTION...DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO KING GEORGE...SRN MD AND
STAYING JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL BELTWAY AND I-95
CORRIDOR. IN THIS AREA SOME SNOW AND SLEET MIX HAS BEEN OBSERVED
BASED ON SPOTTER REPORTS AND LOW VALUES OF DUAL-POL CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT. THIS IS ONLY GOING TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS COLDER AIR
STARTS MOVING IN ALOFT AFTER 12Z PER LOWERING 850-700 MB THICKNESSES
AS INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE. HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR OR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COMMA HEAD REGION AND DEFORMATION
BAND IN THE AREA BETWEEN INTERSTATES 81 AND 95 AND NORTH OF I-66.
IN THIS AREA...NESDIS MERGED SNOWFALL RATE PRODUCT CURRENTLY SHOWS
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
ADDITIONAL FOOT AND HALF OF SNOW THROUGH 06Z SUN BRINGING STORM
TOTALS IN THE 25-30 INCH RANGE IN THAT AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT CREATING CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA.

SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.

&&"

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Pretty much steady 30MPH NE wind now gust over 40. Winds are definitely worse in NE MD into PA-DE right now. bay will start kicking here soon tho and beat these.

http://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=MDZ507&local_place=Bel%20Air%20MD&zoneid=EST&offset=18000

I'm in Elkton and the winds are really howling and seem to be picking up. My only immediate concern is the impending dry slot. Hope it fills in soon. Concerning me greatly.

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I'm in Elkton and the winds are really howling and seem to be picking up. My only immediate concern is the impending dry slot. Hope it fills in soon. Concerning me greatly.

It should fill fast. 500MB tilting 850 low nearing the coast good 850MB flow and still PW. heck the bay has 100 cape. lots going on right now. and yeah Wind is really kicking up for sure. next obs gonna be near 40 im sure 

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