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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2


Ian

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New thoughts - here's the latest MD from SPC for our area:

 

Mesoscale Discussion 58 < Previous MD mcd0058.gif
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0058   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0320 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA/MD/DE/WV/DC METRO TO NJ/PA/NY/CT   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 230920Z - 231415Z   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW AND INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN   BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM NORTHERN VA/DE AND DC METRO/WV   EASTERN PANHANDLE/INTERIOR MD TO NJ AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN PA TO FAR   SOUTHERN NY INCLUDING THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHWEST CT.   PEAK SNOW RATES ARE LIKELY TO REACH/LOCALLY EXCEED 2 IN/HR...WITH   BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR/JUST   WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/EVENING UPPER-AIR DATA DEPICT THE   SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A STRONG/COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET ALONG THE   COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES. 09Z/4AM EST OBSERVATIONS   FEATURE A STEADILY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /988 MB/ OFF THE COAST OF   SOUTHEAST VA WITH A NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD-EXTENDING SUBTLE INVERTED   TROUGH THAT DELINEATES A NEAR-COASTAL CORRIDOR OF VERY STRONG   PRESSURE FALLS OF AS MUCH AS 4-7 MB/2-HR.   SPECIAL 06Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES AND NEW YORK   CITY SAMPLED A SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR   HEAVY SNOW WITH ESSENTIALLY A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER AROUND   500-600 MB AND AN AGGREGATION-CONDUCIVE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL THERMAL   LAYER BETWEEN 700-850 MB. COLLOCATION OF AMPLE MID-LEVEL   FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND WEAK STATIC STABILITY...WHICH IS LARGELY   RELATED TO THE NORTHEASTWARD-SURGING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PER WATER   IMAGERY...WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE WSW/ENE-ORIENTED INTENSE BANDS OF   HEAVY SNOW. EMBEDDED RATES WILL REACH OR EXCEED 2 IN/HR FOR A   MULTI-HOUR DURATION THROUGH MID-MORNING. ASIDE FROM A PERSISTENT   NUMBER OF 1+ IN/HR RATES OBSERVED AT BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AND   WASHINGTON NATIONAL OVERNIGHT...METAR SNINCR OBSERVATIONS AS OF 08Z   SUGGEST 2 IN/HR RATES ARE BEING OBSERVED AT WASHINGTON-DULLES AND   MIDDLETOWN/HARRISBURG PA...WITH NEW YORK CITY/JFK ALSO REPORTING A 2   IN/HR RATE AS OF 09Z.   FURTHERMORE...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ARE SAMPLING A   NORTHWARD-SHIFTING CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENING   EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...ACCENTUATED   BY 50+ KT WINDS AROUND 1 KM PER STERLING VA-KLWX...DOVER AIR FORCE   BASE-KDOX...AND PHILADELPHIA/MT HOLLY-KDIX WSR-88D VWP DATA. AS   SUCH...BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN INCREASINGLY BE   EXPECTED INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR AND   JUST WEST /WITHIN 50 MILES OR SO/ OF INTERSTATE 95.   ..GUYER.. 01/23/2016   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
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Here on Capitol Hill I really haven't seen the rates that would support 24+. I had 11.5" (not on a board) at 4 am, and I doubt the rates will be there to get another foot here between now and when the storm ends.

I'd be a little surprised if I don't run at 30".

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