Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2


Ian

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Waldorf MD, 20602 measurements taken from 10 undisturbed ground locations around my neighborhood and averaged 20.3 inches.  I know last night we had at least an hours worth of sleet and also had a 2 hour duration today in the dry slot, so I'm at least satisfied with the outcome...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm at 25". Stick in the ground. Pretty consistent measures in both front yard (knocking off an inch or so for grass) and back porch. Initially I was doing the board thing but I was too busy having fun with my daughter and walking around all day to keep to the discipline. So be it. Someone wants to hang out by a wooden board during one of the great events of all time and dust it off every three hours like they're cleaning their windowsills, that's their prerogative. This may have fallen just short of the first Feb. 2010 storm in terms of numbers, but IMO this was the better overall storm. More wind and the best part of it was in daylight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wait is that right??? Is that official for BWI? Like is that gonna to officially set the record or can they change it???

It's on the Internet now they can't change it. Once it hits the internet it's true.

Ok. It's not official but it's a NWS report. It's all but confirmed... but not final. It's likely higher.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, we need to do this again. It was a fun ride. 

 

 

Lol and of course, the Baltimore crowd was in full panic this morning during the lull. Northern folks and NW folks win. That's all they do. 

Yeah I saw radar this early this morning looked rather poor especially on SE of the airport. I hadn't watched terribly closely though. 

 

As far as liquid precip goes for the airport. Yesterday's climo had 3.7" on 0.36" of QPF. They recorded 1.84" of QPF through 7PM and their total of 29.2" means 25.5 fell today. Seems unlikely, but they also only recorded 0.05" of liquid when the station was reporting SN to SN+. Doesn't seem too far fetched to me that storm total is accurate. I am curious to see climo tonight to see what it has. 

 

Also, since that 29.2" report at 7PM, the airport picked up another 0.05" of QPF... 30" storm total possible? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Going with 27-28" storm total with widespread 3' drifts and scattered pockets of a lost yardstick.  I was in DC for Snowmageddon, DuPont Circle area, and this was more snow.  The one thing that strikes me this go around was the wind (and gravity waves on radar), even removed here west of the city inland, the wind this afternoon and tonight was big time.  Snownados were common, Moon is out, neighbor just cleared out lifeline out of here with a 70k tractor.  It took him several passes up and down the road, couple hundred yards at a time, but we have a means out.  This was his third clearing of the 1.5 mile back to the 40.  First was last night around midnight, est 8", then this morning around 9, add another 8", and then just now, I had 12" on the rd before he passed.  522 south to CHO should be fun in the morning. 

 

Congrats Guys, this is big time, hammer of thor just dropped, enjoy!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Out of curiosity: do any of the model gurus here plan on doing any sort of correlation between model predictions and what actually transpired? Is that normally done (I'd imagine NOAA does it, but just curious about folks here).

To a first approximation (going from memory), I agree that for the DC area, the GFS seems to have outperformed the Euro, in terms of stability, storm totals, and locations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Out of curiosity: do any of the model gurus here plan on doing any sort of correlation between model predictions and what actually transpired? Is that normally done (I'd imagine NOAA does it, but just curious about folks here).

To a first approximation (going from memory), I agree that for the DC area, the GFS seems to have outperformed the Euro, in terms of stability, storm totals, and locations.

 

Euro performed terribly with this storm...NAM is now #1, at least until the next event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Final total here near Wheaton - 26 using a "snow board" aka driveway cleared every 6 hrs (11pm - 5", 5am - 9", 11am-5", and just now - 7"). Took a short walk around the block and found 22-25 inches snow depth in undisturbed areas, so 2-3 inches of compaction? I did a much more thorough survey on a longer jebwalk around 2-3pm and found 18-20 inches in large fields, and about 4 inches fell after that so I am pretty comfortable with these numbers.

 

I had a cylindrical container set on the driveway each time I cleared it and melted 2.75 inches (possibly enhanced by the overnight measurement since the container overflowed and I had to guesstimate how much extra snow to add), so a little less than 10:1. Not surprising since flakes were small all day and heavily rimed overnight. I'm actually surprised at how well we did considered we were on the losing side of the dry slot for much of the day.

 

My PWS had a 25mph gust which is about as high as it measures (a cold frontal passage earlier this month got it to 30; I don't think I've seen a higher reading since installing it last fall). My house is pretty well sheltered by vegetation so not much absurd drifting, but will try to check out some more exposed areas tomorrow.

 

Overall I put this on par with 1996 - I remember a 25 inch snow depth in my front yard for that one (was living in Centreville at the time), about the same as today. Wasn't here for Feb 2003 or 2010 so can't compare to those.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm at 25". Stick in the ground. Pretty consistent measures in both front yard (knocking off an inch or so for grass) and back porch. Initially I was doing the board thing but I was too busy having fun with my daughter and walking around all day to keep to the discipline. So be it. Someone wants to hang out by a wooden board during one of the great events of all time and dust it off every three hours like they're cleaning their windowsills, that's their prerogative. This may have fallen just short of the first Feb. 2010 storm in terms of numbers, but IMO this was the better overall storm. More wind and the best part of it was in daylight.

 

Two miles down Wisconsin Ave, my measurements were right in line with you. My best guess is 25" today, and I got 26" in Feb. 2010. 

 

Like everyone else, my 25" measurement is low confidence due to the drifting, but I am very confident that we got at least 22 here.  I took 7 different measurements in an array of locations and never got less than 22. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Final measurement was 24.25 inches. Tough to measure last 7-10 hours but pretty confident it is within an inch. Confirmed measurement with neighbors across the street, who had a similar tally.

Still lightly snowing but doubt it will make a difference in my final totals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone else around Fairfax/Burke/Springfield get 26"/27"?  I am going with that as my total and want to be sure its somewhat accurate

I got about 27", give or take an inch (I didn't measure with a snow board, just took multiple measurements from around the yard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

(Great) Blizzard of 2016 Observations

1:30pm--0.0", -SN

2:30pm--0.1", -SN (close to SN, dusting on secondary roads)

3:30pm--0.7", SN (light wind, secondary roads covered, main roads with slushy accumulation)

4:30pm--1.3", SN (same as last update, but with main roads covered now)

5:30pm--1.9", SN (closing in on +SN with dropping visibility, first notable wind gusts appearing)

6:30pm--2.3", SN (everything covered heavily, minor gusts)

7:30pm--3.5", SN (suspect hour, looks like drifting has begun, used multiple neighborhood measurements)

8:30pm--4.3", SN (prior hour ob confirmed, breezy)

9:30pm--5.1", +SN (first legit wind gusts, visibility below 1/4SM)

12:00am--7.1", -SN (50% dendrites, 40% smaller flakes, 10% rimed flakes)

2:00am--10.1", +SN (windy, but below blizzard criteria, below 1/4SM)

4:00am--12.0", +SN (greatest scene since Feb '13, strong wind, +SN and whiteout conditions)

8:30am--16.1", SN (SN+ continued overnight, with some wind and near whiteout conditions, no thundersnow)

10:30am--17.3", -SN (reduced rates, but still coming down even with "weak" radar returns, slight wind, growing drifts)

12:30pm--17.5", Flurries (barely any accumulating snow, some compaction evident, windy)

02:30pm--18.0", +SN (light snow all the way until the last 30 minutes of the period, then +SN and 1/8 viz, breezy)

03:30pm--19.0", +SN (heavy snow, whiteout conditions, windiest period yet)

05:30pm--20.1", SN (windy, moderate snow, roads with 3-5 inches on them, drifts up to 2')

06:30pm--21.0", -SN (heavier band changing to lighter one, storm winding down, still gusty)

07:30pm--21.6", -SN (mod band to pixie dust)

09:30pm--22.0", Flurries (two periods of heavier -SN that put me over the top LATE. Ballgame)

 

Overall grade: A

 

Easy grade to give, though I initially thought of giving it an A-. For the DC folks, we left some serious points on the field. A 20 mile shift during the morning hours and we would have made a run at knickerbocker. However, in true DC fashion we found a way to fail during a historic storm. Outside of that, this was the perfect storm for the area. No temp concerns for most. Long duration event. Deathbands. Blizzard warning verified. All time bests for folks in the broader region. DC redemption when we were against the ropes, and even RIC getting redemption at the end.

 

We need to do these more often. Our days on this earth are fleeting. How we spend our precious time--time that we never get back--will determine how happy we will be in the end. We are all weenies. We live for this. Together we tracked an historic event and together we were able to vent, high five,  :o , and laugh together. We jebwalked with loved ones, gave our children memories they will pass on, and stood in awe of mother nature, together. 

 

These are memories that we will always have, no matter what our totals were. Cheers. 

 

200.gif

 

 

Amazing post. You are an awesome person and I deeply respect your insights. I am privileged to be able to experience this with everyone here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro performed terribly with this storm...NAM is now #1, at least until the next event.

This isn't the first time the Euro has miscalled a winter storm. At any rate, a nice lesson from this (if it needs to be learned yet again) is that no one model has a lock on calling all forecasts correctly, and assuming one is all you need is not wise.

 

Come to think of it, that's a good general principle to follow for numerical modeling overall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...