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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2


Ian

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Just got this in an email from my HOA: "The heavy winds, snow drifts, lack of visibility, and accumulation is making conditions nearly impossible for the crews to make any progress. The severity of the storm is being affected by all including VDOT, who is out of fuel in Loudoun County, as many plows that are stuck on major highways and roadways, have stopped services due to visibility issues, and are way behind on making progress on major roads. Rumors are that VDOT will not be in to secondary streets until late Monday."

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Not that it will apply again for a long time but one thing the gfs taught me was that when a model shows and insane solution over and over and over again...it may actually be atmospherically and meteorlogicly possible.

Especially when several models show that insane solution across ops and ensembles, over and over again.

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Just got this in an email from my HOA: "The heavy winds, snow drifts, lack of visibility, and accumulation is making conditions nearly impossible for the crews to make any progress. The severity of the storm is being affected by all including VDOT, who is out of fuel in Loudoun County, as many plows that are stuck on major highways and roadways, have stopped services due to visibility issues, and are way behind on making progress on major roads. Rumors are that VDOT will not be in to secondary streets until late Monday."

 

Great...

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CWG's response to DCAgate:  Reagan National Airport’s preliminary snowfall total through 8 p.m. is 17.8 inches, which ties Snowmageddon of 2010 as the 4th most on record. However, we are not convinced this is a legitimate total and will have more to say about it later.

Plot thickens!

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Just got this in an email from my HOA: "The heavy winds, snow drifts, lack of visibility, and accumulation is making conditions nearly impossible for the crews to make any progress. The severity of the storm is being affected by all including VDOT, who is out of fuel in Loudoun County, as many plows that are stuck on major highways and roadways, have stopped services due to visibility issues, and are way behind on making progress on major roads. Rumors are that VDOT will not be in to secondary streets until late Monday."

Yep we were told something similar up here in Fred. Co. All plows have been pulled off the road till tomorrow morning. Neighborhoods will not be started till Monday.

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Just got this in an email from my HOA: "The heavy winds, snow drifts, lack of visibility, and accumulation is making conditions nearly impossible for the crews to make any progress. The severity of the storm is being affected by all including VDOT, who is out of fuel in Loudoun County, as many plows that are stuck on major highways and roadways, have stopped services due to visibility issues, and are way behind on making progress on major roads. Rumors are that VDOT will not be in to secondary streets until late Monday."

 

Wow, out of fuel. Quite the catch-22. Fuel trucks rely on the plows to clear the roads that can't because they're out of fuel.

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(Great) Blizzard of 2016 Observations

1:30pm--0.0", -SN

2:30pm--0.1", -SN (close to SN, dusting on secondary roads)

3:30pm--0.7", SN (light wind, secondary roads covered, main roads with slushy accumulation)

4:30pm--1.3", SN (same as last update, but with main roads covered now)

5:30pm--1.9", SN (closing in on +SN with dropping visibility, first notable wind gusts appearing)

6:30pm--2.3", SN (everything covered heavily, minor gusts)

7:30pm--3.5", SN (suspect hour, looks like drifting has begun, used multiple neighborhood measurements)

8:30pm--4.3", SN (prior hour ob confirmed, breezy)

9:30pm--5.1", +SN (first legit wind gusts, visibility below 1/4SM)

12:00am--7.1", -SN (50% dendrites, 40% smaller flakes, 10% rimed flakes)

2:00am--10.1", +SN (windy, but below blizzard criteria, below 1/4SM)

4:00am--12.0", +SN (greatest scene since Feb '13, strong wind, +SN and whiteout conditions)

8:30am--16.1", SN (SN+ continued overnight, with some wind and near whiteout conditions, no thundersnow)

10:30am--17.3", -SN (reduced rates, but still coming down even with "weak" radar returns, slight wind, growing drifts)

12:30pm--17.5", Flurries (barely any accumulating snow, some compaction evident, windy)

02:30pm--18.0", +SN (light snow all the way until the last 30 minutes of the period, then +SN and 1/8 viz, breezy)

03:30pm--19.0", +SN (heavy snow, whiteout conditions, windiest period yet)

05:30pm--20.1", SN (windy, moderate snow, roads with 3-5 inches on them, drifts up to 2')

06:30pm--21.0", -SN (heavier band changing to lighter one, storm winding down, still gusty)

07:30pm--21.6", -SN (mod band to pixie dust)

 

 

Your attention to detail is fabulous on this. I got another inch on both my measuring spots between 6 and 8, so I bet you'll be at 22 at 8:30....

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Yep we were told something similar up here in Fred. Co. All plows have been pulled off the road till tomorrow morning. Neighborhoods will not be started till Monday.

We'te on a cup-de-sac and had (I believe) one plow pass during Feb 5-6, then didn't see a plow until Feb 12. All neighbor's based together to dig out our street on our own after both storms.

We had two passes yesterday (about 3:00 pm and 8:30 pm), and I wouldn't be surprised at all if we don't see a plow until Monday. Might have to get at it tomorrow.

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I'm not bashing, and I haven't lived here long enough to know much of anything about how DCA does what it does, but I counted 4 heavy snow hourly obs and two mod snow obs between 1pm and 7pm, and 2.9 is what they get? Just sounds strange on its face.

Look at the qpf they reported during hours of heavy snow. It's ludicrous.

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No idea how much I have.  If BWI has 26"+, I've got to be around 28"?  Just phenomenal.  I was seriously wondering if I could get to 18" around 11am today.  The first 22 hours of this storm were admittedly a bit underwhelming. Solid, no doubt, but couldn't ever really sustain heavy rates.  Just hours and hours of moderate or low-vis light snow.  But damn, this afternoon and evening has been incredible.  Legit blizzard conditions.  Incredible.  This deform band made it HECS-worthy for me. 

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