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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2


Ian

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I kept track of some of the superlatives that were being used in the No Banter threads (now locked) as each model came out ahead of the storm, as I figured it would be interesting to revisit these afterwards. For better and for worse, here they are, in a mega word salad. Enjoy.

 

Like a snow globe in a blender … Absurd … Insane … I may slip into a brief coma… Too much to mentally process … Straight. Up. Porn … Hammering … Mauling … Shellacking … Crushing … Clobbered … Biblical … Epic … Obliteration … Smashing … The real deal … What every single one of us dreams of … Unreal … GOAT (Greatest Of All Time) … We may never see something like this again … This is a once in 1,000-year storm … WTF … Unprecedented … Remarkable … Incomprehensible … Ridiculous … Jackpot … We are rocking and rollin' … Impressive … Like nothing I've ever seen … Just stupid silly … My God … Rakage … Money in the bank … Outrageous … Unbelievable … I cannot even fathom … Complete destroyer … Total perfection … Fantastic … Scary … A thing of beauty … Massive hit … Amazing … Smoked … Crushing … GTFO … Disaster for our area … Hilarious … Juicy … Absolute ripping … Mind boggling … Incredible … Wacky … Incredible consistency … Ridonculous … Doesn't suck … Prepare to faint … Exceptional … Randytastic … Tasty … Nasty … Crazy … Buckle up … Speechless … Can't believe this is happening … WOWOWOW … Sobering … Mutilated … I still can't wrap my mind around this … LOL … Outrageous … The perfect storm … Crushed silly … Heaven … Sweet … Generational … Remarkable … Healthy … Needbiggersled … Pounding the you-know-what out of us … Gigantic … Plaster blaster … Historic … Monster … Delicious … Astounding … Too big to fail … Best run of our lifetimes … Unspeakable … ZOMG … Steriods … I don't even know what to type at this point … Not only the model max, but the climatological max too … Sick … It's a bomb … We're more than fine – we should be going nuts, too … Explosive progression … About as epic as you can ever draw on paper … Wicked … Holy crap … Demolished … You seriously better shelter in place if this comes true … Oh baby … Boom … Cold smoke … Best fantasy run of my life … Wes will have to exit his house from the second floor … Beautiful … Beatdown … Huge … Textbook … I may be dead before I see it again … Mass destruction … Grand slam … Great thump … I like what I'm seeing … What a spot we're in … One for the books … No sleeping after seeing that … Armageddon stuff … Top-end potential … So classic and elegant … Now it's a party … Good Lord … A remake of The Day After Tomorrow … Playing for different stakes … Holy sh!t … Record breaking … Weeeeeee … Amped … Pummeling … Can make a grown man cry … Cranking … Pounding … Awesome … Crippling … This is going to be one for the ages … The gift that keeps on givin' … NSFW … Gorgeous … Smooth … Snowtown … Vigorous … Holy hell … Wreckage … It will be tough to go back to regular weather after this … Deathbanded … Fantastic … Sold. Lock it up … Downright orgasmic … Surreal … I do not think I have ever seen a more beautiful loop or evolution … Locked and loaded … A damn nuke … Feels like we are just spiking the football at this point … Ludicrous … Floored. Humbled again … First degree felony obscenity.

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Frankly the Euro sucked with this storm. It was jumpy and did its usual crap with cutting precip right before the storm.

Not that it will apply again for a long time but one thing the gfs taught me was that when a model shows and insane solution over and over and over again...it may actually be atmospherically and meteorlogicly possible.

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Not that it will apply again for a long time but one thing the gfs taught me was that when a model shows and insane solution over and over and over again...it may actually be atmospherically and meteorlogicly possible.

duh? :nerdsmiley:

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There's something very strange going on there...NWS needs to investigate

 

Tried to explain this to our friend from upstate NY who was posting in here today who was guaranteeing 20" at DCA.  That guy clearly knows his stuff (he bullseyed the heavy bands coming through DC all afternoon), but being an expert met with every piece of high tech radar info simply does not allow you guess DCA snow totals. You have to apply the 25% rule. 

 

DCA is a joke. 

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I have yet to see an official time obs of the dca report. It's very possible the number is higher imo.

 

Here's the link, though you may have to search among the various storm reports for the DCA report if this link doesn't take you directly to the specific report.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=LSR&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0&highlight=off 

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Tried to explain this to our friend from upstate NY who was posting in here today who was guaranteeing 20" at DCA.  That guy clearly knows his stuff (he bullseyed the heavy bands coming through DC all afternoon), but being an expert met with every piece of high tech radar info simply does not allow you guess DCA snow totals. You have to apply the 25% rule. 

 

DCA is a joke. 

 

It's very sad DC has to put up with amateur hour over there...Sterling should be very concerned.

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Tried to explain this to our friend from upstate NY who was posting in here today who was guaranteeing 20" at DCA. That guy clearly knows his stuff (he bullseyed the heavy bands coming through DC all afternoon), but being an expert met with every piece of high tech radar info simply does not allow you guess DCA snow totals. You have to apply the 25% rule.

DCA is a joke.

We don't know what their total is yet. Given that they had 15 at 1pm when it started snowing hard, I'm optimistic.

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Looks like this storm will break the top 10 at BWI.  Assuming this will happen;

 

4 of the top 11 snowstorms at BWI have occurred within the past 6 winters since 09/10.

6 of the top 11 have occurred within the past 20 years.

 

edit: #snowtown

 

 

They Reported this at 1:00 PM: 

 

BWI AIRPORT - AIRPORT

DATE: 01/23/2016

TIME: 100 PM

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL: 19.8

 

 

 

 

 

Do you realize how much it snowed since 1:00?  GOAT or BUST

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We don't know what their total is yet. Given that they had 15 at 1pm when it started snowing hard, I'm optimistic.

 

I'm just going off what others are saying, in terms of the last two DCA updates being 17.5 (5 pm) and 17.8 (7 pm).  I don't have first hand knowledge. If those were erroneous reports, someone tell me.

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I'm just going off what others are saying, in terms of the last two DCA updates being 17.5 (5 pm) and 17.8 (7 pm).  I don't have first hand knowledge. If those were erroneous reports, someone tell me.

I don't think there has been anything official yet as of 7:00.

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Nice storm here, but not even close to a top 10. The front end thump was awesome. 13.5" by 9 am this morning. But even though it lightly snowed all day, it was wimpy, basically was dry slotted or in a subsidence zone from the big slow moving deform band to my NW. Getting a nice burst now, and will end up at 15" or a bit more. Thats plenty of snow (and work), so although its defo cool to get a historic event, this was still very satisfying and also somewhat manageable. My sister sent me some pictures from Reisterstown...lol no thanks.

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