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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2


Ian

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And how many disregarded that NAM and it nailed the northern extent of precip from about 48 hours out.

Nobody will ever convince me that the euro was better than the gfs this time. The NAM scored it's once every couple of years big victory. It will cause problems soon when we start thinking "remember what the Nam did with Jan 2016??"

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Ok. Latest snow total is 24.5"

At 5pm I went back out and took more measurements in previously cleared areas that were uniformly even and away from obvious drifting. The most common depth was 6" with a range of 5-7" I had a few 8+ and 4s but these seemed suspect.

So from 9am until 5pm my snow total is 6"

That gives me a storm total of 24.5 so far with snow still falling. I doubt I get more than 1" on top of that and will almost be impossible to tell with the wind

This one has been tough to get good snow totals for with a high confidence. I'm just thrilled to get to 2 feet. Great storm. The afternoon stuff today was just fantastic and bailed me out of what would have been a failure

It sounds like everyone bent over backwards to be accurate. I like that. This is the first time I've ever cleared in 6 hour intervals.

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Nobody will ever convince me that the euro was better than the gfs this time. The NAM scored it's once every couple of years big victory. It will cause problems soon when we start thinking "remember what the Nam did with Jan 2016??"

There's no question that the Euro finished last. It might have beaten the Navgem.

Great performance by the American models.

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I submitted a spotter report for Franconia/Kingstowne for 7pm with a total of 24.0 inches, 6 inches since 1pm.  This was as high as I felt comfortable going, given the challenge in measuring this event especially after the winds really picked up.

 

According to my Fitbit, I've also logged more than 14 miles of Jebwalks since the beginning of the event, including a quality hour in the blizzard conditions.  

 

With the afternoon bands and confirmed blizzard conditions, it's definitely become my top snow event!

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675  
NWUS51 KLWX 240006  
LSRLWX  
 
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
706 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016  
   
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON
 
   
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.
 
 
..REMARKS..  
 
0652 PM SNOW 1 WSW REAGAN NATIONAL A 38.85N 77.04W  
01/23/2016 M17.8 INCH ARLINGTON VA OFFICIAL NWS OBS  
 

 
 
EVENT NUMBER LWX1602044  

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Ok.  Latest snow total is 24.5"

 

At 5pm I went back out and took more measurements in previously cleared areas that were uniformly even and away from obvious drifting.  The most common depth was 6" with a range of 5-7"  I had a few 8+ and 4s but these seemed suspect.  

 

So from 9am until 5pm my snow total is 6"

 

That gives me a storm total of 24.5 so far with snow still falling.  I doubt I get more than 1" on top of that and will almost be impossible to tell with the wind

 

This one has been tough to get good snow totals for with a high confidence.  I'm just thrilled to get to 2 feet.  Great storm.  The afternoon stuff today was just fantastic and bailed me out of what would have been a failure

 

In two years of lurking, I've been within 0.5" of your reports for every event.  Helps give me some more confidence in my 24.0" total.  

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I submitted a spotter report for Franconia/Kingstowne for 7pm with a total of 24.0 inches, 6 inches since 1pm.  This was as high as I felt comfortable going, given the challenge in measuring this event especially after the winds really picked up.

 

According to my Fitbit, I've also logged more than 14 miles of Jebwalks since the beginning of the event, including a quality hour in the blizzard conditions.  

 

With the afternoon bands and confirmed blizzard conditions, it's definitely become my top snow event!

Wow! I'm within a couple miles and submitted 21.0" as of 6:35 P.M. It was one of my most difficult measurements I've ever made with a total of maybe 10 attempts or so.

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I submitted a spotter report for Franconia/Kingstowne for 7pm with a total of 24.0 inches, 6 inches since 1pm.  This was as high as I felt comfortable going, given the challenge in measuring this event especially after the winds really picked up.

 

According to my Fitbit, I've also logged more than 14 miles of Jebwalks since the beginning of the event, including a quality hour in the blizzard conditions.  

 

With the afternoon bands and confirmed blizzard conditions, it's definitely become my top snow event!

 

always good to see others near me with similar #s.  Agree that trying to say more than 24" is tough

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Not the para lol

Which para (GFS or Euro)?  The GFS busted pretty bad on the northern extent of the precip into NY/Conn/etc..  Beyond that detail, this is about as good of a set of forecasts from the GFS as I can remember at least for this type of event.

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Just north of you! Walked out to Ashburn village Blvd....one lane with 5 inches on it! Just nice smooth mounds of snow everywhere.... So cool looking

The wind and the drifting has made measuring nearly impossible. Now that nightfall has arrived and the street lights have come on, it's pretty wild to see how the wind has completely reshaped the landscape via drifts. I could gawk at the scenery all night.

Thanks for measuring all day, btw. I was following your posts too, since I'm just down the road near the Brambleton town center.

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675  

NWUS51 KLWX 240006  

LSRLWX  

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

706 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016  

   

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

   

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

 

..REMARKS..  

 

0652 PM SNOW 1 WSW REAGAN NATIONAL A 38.85N 77.04W  

01/23/2016 M17.8 INCH ARLINGTON VA OFFICIAL NWS OBS  

 

 

 

EVENT NUMBER LWX1602044  

 

What a joke.

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675  

NWUS51 KLWX 240006  

LSRLWX  

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

706 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016  

   

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

   

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

 

..REMARKS..  

 

0652 PM SNOW 1 WSW REAGAN NATIONAL A 38.85N 77.04W  

01/23/2016 M17.8 INCH ARLINGTON VA OFFICIAL NWS OBS  

 

 

 

EVENT NUMBER LWX1602044  

 

Thats not DCA itself. Just a measurement near it. I hope. If not, thats bs. I haven't heard one measurement less than 20 in any part of SE DC or S Arlington. 

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And how many disregarded that NAM and it nailed the northern extent of precip from about 48 hours out.

I never thought I would day this, but the NAM was excellent with the front Wednesday night and equally so with this storm. And if I lived up north, I'd forever hug it since it was the first indididual model to insist on the northward progression. I know srefs did too, but they are an ensemble.
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In two years of lurking, I've been within 0.5" of your reports for every event.  Helps give me some more confidence in my 24.0" total.  

 

 

Wow! I'm within a couple miles and submitted 21.0" as of 6:35 P.M. It was one of my most difficult measurements I've ever made with a total of maybe 10 attempts or so.

 

 

I usually go conservative and probably under report many things but one thing I hate is stat padding.  If others beat me and i'm lagging then so be it.

 

Depending on where exactly you are BTR it could have been that the two of us got into the sweet stuff sooner?  IDK.  This stuff is so tricky at times

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