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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2


Ian

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 232340Z - 240345Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...BUT GUSTY WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...POCKETS OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR/ MAY PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESSURE FALLS AROUND
1-2 MB/HR AT BUOYS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS INTENSE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...AND MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. NONETHELESS...RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM SEVERAL SITES STILL
INDICATE HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REPORTED AT JFK
AND ISLIP NY. MOREOVER...KDIX AND KOKX ZDR/KDP DATA ILLUSTRATE A FEW
BANDS OF APPRECIABLE DENDRITIC/CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT...WHICH IS
SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR. IN TURN...A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

ADDITIONALLY...AS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY PIVOT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MA /ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET
AND EASTERN CAPE COD/ LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

 

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Being from SNE and having witnessed 90" of snowfall 20 days, which paralyzed the MBTA for months....this is one of the most captivating obs posts that I have ever seen.

 

Thank you.

Agreed. Nice post CLskinsfan. My wife and I were just standing outside looking at the 4-6' drifts on our long driveway, and in every direction and saying "what the heck do we do now ?" Drifts on the unplowed roads that serve as our way out of our 'hood look to be even higher as they pass through the neighboring farm fields. It's an incredible landscape. On par with the two storms in Feb 2010 which topped out at a 36" snow depth. We were a week before we could get out then.
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It was such a great analog to this storm, especially at 500 mb. I'm not surprised. Looks like we may verify more widespread blizzard conditions with this one.

Even better is the fact is was during the same month 20 years later!

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Any idea why IAD is reporting such low numbers?  I know I have over 30" IMBY here in Herndon. 

Lurking here from New Hampshire.  The official NWS way of measuring snow is to clear your snow boards every 6 hours.  That is how Boston does it.  I would guess that is how it is done officially everywhere.  Many lay persons measure and then clear the area, measuring every hour or couple of hours.  If you do it that way your totals will be higher.  If you wait 6 hours then the snow weight compresses the column slightly so your totals are lower.  Maybe that is the reason??

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Curious if anyone is keeping tabs on Winchester, VA.. My buddy says he's got 40 inches, maybe pushing 50.. Curious if anyone has seen similar reports.  I gotta double check, some official reports, but he's gotten buried up there and the most he's seen living out there..

 

Man, what a day for folks down this way.  Yeh, looks like things are starting to wrap up.. Watching the bands to begin to diminish. Eh, its like that party you had so much fun and then its over. Yep, all the past nights wrestling what the models are showing, what can go wrong and the emotions of oh man, what 30 inches or wait, 15 inches.. What a southern shift or you have to fight with a track too far north..

 

Anyway, wouldn't mind if we had Boston got last year. Hey, how about we have 3 more of these events.. Yeh, I know thats probably a long shot, but hey you never know.

 

Well, this pattern breaks down some and we moderate. What does February have waiting for us.. Well, time will tell..

 

Time to look ahead some great football tomorrow.. Will the Patriots go back to the Super Bowl.. I think its going to be the Pats and the Panthers.  Well, we'll see..

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