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Central PA Jan 22-24 "The NortheastPAWx Special" storm obs/banter


canderson

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1:50 Am.  Wide awake an seeing CTP's updated map....aint gonna help me sleep any.

 

Wowwy wow...

 

BTW...it is dumping outside.  Definitely in the 1+" per hour stuff.  

 

See yall soon, and happy to hear that the western gang is overproducing.  

 

NEPA....wait ur turn...your the farthest north, so your last in line.  

 

Enjoy 

 

Nut

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has this been posted?

 

PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...
POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE
1247 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...24 TO 30 INCHES.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WITH RAPID ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

:pimp:
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Cannot say what its doing north of me.. I can't imagine virga is that close to me... but what do I know.

 

I'm in Sugarloaf to be more specific btw. Light snow right now...

that's up in elevation from downtown by a decent amount, something like 1700-1800 ft asl, right? my friend in Hanover Section of Nanticoke is like 800ft asl.

 

from what I could extrapolate from HZL and AVP obs your clouds are like 3-3.5kft asl (depth of layer between clouds and sfc ~1kft); AVP at last ob has clouds at 6kft and no snow. extrapolate to hanover section near middle road, you're looking at like 4500ft asl clouds, with a depth between the clouds and sfc like 3.5-4kft. she also said it's a real damp cold. sounds to me like a lot of virga not making it down to the valley floor, but maybe falling in Mountain Top and Pond Hill. wonder how that plays in all of this, given the current radar/obs and the current upgrade to a WSW for Luzerne County.

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has this been posted?

 

PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...

POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE

1247 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...24 TO 30 INCHES.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WITH RAPID ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1 TO 2

INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW

WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

:pimp:

 

Yep.....

 

by you....:)

 

Crazy Sh!t goin down ya'll.

 

LOVE IT

 

Nut

 

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that's up in elevation from downtown by a decent amount, something like 1700-1800 ft asl, right? my friend in Hanover Section of Nanticoke is like 800ft asl.

 

from what I could extrapolate from HZL and AVP obs your clouds are like 3-3.5kft asl (depth of layer between clouds and sfc ~1kft); AVP at last ob has clouds at 6kft and no snow. extrapolate to hanover section near middle road, you're looking at like 4500ft asl clouds, with a depth between the clouds and sfc like 3.5-4kft. she also said it's a real damp cold. sounds to me like a lot of virga not making it down to the valley floor, but maybe falling in Mountain Top and Pond Hill. wonder how that plays in all of this, given the current radar/obs and the current upgrade to a WSW for Luzerne County.

It is snowing there now. I live about a mile or two away and it is really coming down here. I was just out to get my daughter from work. the roads are just about covered here.

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It is snowing there now. I live about a mile or two away and it is really coming down here. I was just out to get my daughter from work. the roads are just about covered here.

ok. just saw the avp ob and the lowering clouds. it'll be interesting to see the snow totals tomorrow. thanks for the update.

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I'ts usually the other way around.  

How did you do with the one in 2010, we were in the sweet spot here, ended up with 26" and this feels a lot like that one.

 

Had about 17" in 2010, this one seems to be playing out similarly so far in Blair. Are you in the actual town of Newry or in the outskirts?

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text impressive as well:(Hershey)

 

Overnight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Steady temperature around 27. Blustery, with a northeast wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow. High near 26. Blustery, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.
Saturday Night
Snow, mainly before 1am, then a chance of light snow after 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 1am. Low around 17. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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Any reason why the new WSW indicates Schuylkill County getting 24-30 inches when the text forecast says 18-24? Is there new data included in the WSW that didn't get included in the text forecasts?

 

Anyway, already 4 inches on the ground as of 3:45am here in Tamaqua.

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Maybe an inch or two..sucks being on the outside looking in..

it's that tight gradient on the northern edge of the system, one that can burn people big. doing a partial verification on a snowfall map I put out on twitter Thursday near midday has the >2" storm total area looking quite good. but the northern edge of the >6", >12", and >18" storm total areas are looking about 30-40miles too south. not too much in the way of driving time or even in forecasting from an areal extent, but a big difference in weather. and a big difference a slight model change can do that I should have anticipated.

 

you want to see just as big a difference as you will see compared to state college? I will bet that Harvey's Lake on the northern edge of Luzerne County only sees 2-3, maybe 4", but my home town of Nanticoke going now 3-5 maybe 6", and Hazleton going 6-10", all with an extent of 30 miles, as the crow flies.

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From the CTP discussion:

"

QPF FROM 00Z RUNS CONTINUES A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND. NAM AND SREFS

NOT LETTING GO AND SEEM TO HAVE MORE MERIT THAN SOME FORECASTERS

WERE GIVING THEM PRIOR TO THE STORM. A CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH WOULD

HAVE INCLUDED THESE MODELS/MEMBERS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE THE BEST

FCST - AS IT MOST TIMES IS. A SLIGHT MOVE WAS MADE TO THIS END"

OVER THE LAST 24-30 HRS OF THE FORECAST. BUT MORE CREEDENCE NOW

GIVEN TO THEIR SOLUTIONS OF QPF WITH HRRR AND RUC SUPPORTING NEXT

SEVERAL HRS. SLR/S WORKING OFF THE GFS TEMP PROFILE IN THE SRN

COS NOW LOOK TO BE 15-20:1 IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS TO COME THIS

MORNING. 12-15:1 STILL LOOK OK FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Any reason why the new WSW indicates Schuylkill County getting 24-30 inches when the text forecast says 18-24? Is there new data included in the WSW that didn't get included in the text forecasts?

 

Anyway, already 4 inches on the ground as of 3:45am here in Tamaqua.

just saw the zones, Philly is going with the lower amounts overall in Carbon County (12-16 from what I am seeing), i think. Wonder why State College went 20-30 while right next door in what should be a similar area forecast-wise that much higher.

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MAG, what impacts will this have on the storm conditions?

 

Winds at the surface will likely be on the increase as those high winds at the low levels work their way into PA with the surface low getting closer and mix down to some degree.. which of course would have implications on the far southern tier where there are blizzard warnings. 

 

Addtionally, mesoanalysis indicates destablization of the mid levels starting to work up into Eastern VA, DC, and southern/central MD.. and with that has come some thundersnow reports in the Mid-Atlantic thread as far north as BWI. So that should continue to work into SC PA later this morning bringing thundersnow possibilities with it.

 

post-1507-0-69352500-1453541808_thumb.pn

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Getting solid inch per hour rates here. I just measured and am up to 5 inches now.

 

Williamsport, I truly feel sorry for you up there. I know the feeling well, having dealt with it the past few years as well. And I do owe all of you an apology for the other day when I saw the post about the blizzard warnings and complained. It was out of total frustration, but I shouldn't have done it and I'm sorry to neff and anyone else I offended.

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