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Central PA Jan 22-24 "The NortheastPAWx Special" storm obs/banter


canderson

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one of the items with this storm though that should be looked into other than the model performance is how sharp the actual gradient in snow amounts was. this storm had a much sharper gradient than most storms of this type, at least in my observation. After all, going 0.5" to 8" in 8 miles like happened in Lackawanna County? 2" to 20"+ in about a 30 mile stretch near Columbia County? 1" in Exeter to 18" down just south of Hazleton in ~30 mi? 5" in Milton to 16" in Sunbury just 10 miles away ?

 

when does anyone hear about that dramatic a snow gradient outside of Lake-effect events? I don't remember that many with anything close, personally. But I'm sure you guys might remember a few more.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSBGM&e=201601240016

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSCTP&e=201601232308

 

A paper on these sharp gradients in general the last several years would be something. It's amazing that these have become the norm.

 

These events actually seem sort of common across eastern PA. I remember several of them while growing up as a teen in the 90s. Often with noreasters that slam the Philly area, there is a tight cutoff right at the Lancaster/Chester county lines.

 

March 31/April 1st 1997 comes to mind. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1997/31-Mar-97.html

 

Dec 2000 is the other one spoken about: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2001/30-Dec-00.html

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Even after shoveling 3 times today we will still have our work cut out for us tomorrow. 12-18" drifted across half the driveway and three completely buried cars to extract.

I took a number of depth measurements around part of the yard about 45 minutes ago. Averaged 27", not bad considering compaction and drifting. Calling the final total 31-32", for the largest storm we've ever experienced. Time to go pass out.

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one of the items with this storm though that should be looked into other than the model performance is how sharp the actual gradient in snow amounts was. this storm had a much sharper gradient than most storms of this type, at least in my observation. After all, going 0.5" to 8" in 8 miles like happened in Lackawanna County? 2" to 20"+ in about a 30 mile stretch near Columbia County? 1" in Exeter to 18" down just south of Hazleton in ~30 mi? 5" in Milton to 16" in Sunbury just 10 miles away ?

 

when does anyone hear about that dramatic a snow gradient outside of Lake-effect events? I don't remember that many with anything close, personally. But I'm sure you guys might remember a few more.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSBGM&e=201601240016

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSCTP&e=201601232308

 

I was pretty amazed at the gradient of this system, that was another thing the NAM had really suggested with this system. Def seemed to be tighter than Feb 2010. As I had mentioned earlier, the rates I observed last night at times didn't really match up with what the radar had overhead, especially when the heaviest snow was in this area. Ratios were certainly in play as well, as the best bands where the excessive snow piled up were probably >15:1. CTP was referencing up to 20:1 in their disco overnight last night.  But yea the gradient was just brutal, locally it went from 2001kx's 1-2" (Clearfield 40 miles north)... to here that had 11".. to Altoona (8 miles south)... which had a general 16-19"..to Hollidaysburg (another few miles south) which had 21". There's also a report of 30" in Roaring Spring, which is about 20 miles south of here, but I'm not sure how authentic it is. Either way, one gets the point. 

 

What's the over under on NESIS rating?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

At least at 4 and probably a high end one at that. The only reason(s) I don't think it'll be a 5 is cuz it likely isn't going to get Boston as hard as the 96 blizzard and it had a tighter northern gradient than 96, which was a tight one too. Just an unbelievable storm though, it's amazing to see the huge numbers the computer models had been putting out day after day last week actually come to fruition.  

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Final number for Ephrata is 21" The 26 hour duration makes this a special storm. Definitely worth waiting for this winter. The 1996 storm is still my personal best at 30"

 

Unfortunately my precipitation total is skewed high from blowing snow. I came up with almost 3" total precip but I know that is high.

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does anyone know where NWS State College hides their public information statements?  I'm trying to find storm reports for this region, and having a difficult time finding it.  No problem in other regions, and thought the home pages were all the same for NWS sites, but obviously not.  tia

http://www.weather.gov/ctp/recentSnow

 

Press link that says "Press here for latest statement"

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30.2 inches at MDT !

This shattered the old record of 25 inches from 1983.

Maybe this record will stand for another 33 years,

Or maybe it will just last 33 days ?

According to the good long range seasonal forecasters,

February is supposed to best the best winter month for snow

because of this year's El Niño and other factors that impact the pattern.

Maybe this record setting storm just got the party started ?

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Well, I'm kind of bummed.  Just looked at the PNS report for snow from CTP and they did not include my report of 35.0".  They did have a coop observer report from Mechanicsburg with 36.9", so it's not like my report didn't look credible.  However, one interesting thing is that I am only about one mile from the Carlisle Water Plant, which is an official COOP site, and they only reported 26.0", which I have a really hard time believing.  I might just go over there and pay them a little visit to speak to their observer to see how he did the obs.  I'm wondering if he was even there throughout the storm at all or if he just took a ground depth measurement for his report?  I will get to the bottom of this mystery.

 

Anyway, here are my final stats:

Total snowfall for storm = 35.0"

Duration of continuous snowfall = 28 hours

Snowfall began at 1430 on 1/22/16 and ended at 2030 on 1/23/16

Snowfall recorded through 2359 on 1/22 = 3.5"

Snowfall recorded on 1/23 = 31.5"

Total liquid for storm = 2.36"

Ratio for storm = 14.8 : 1

 

MAG had commented about the ratios a few posts back.  In one of my obs yesterday I talked about how the ratio of the snowfall that fell during the approximately 6 hour period I was under that incredible band with 2.5 - 3.5"/hr rates was 26:1.  The rest of the snow that fell while not under that band had varying ratios of between 12:1 to 15:1.

 

I'm going to contact CTP to ask them about including my obs in their report.  Maybe they'll listen to me.  I even have hour-by-hour video proof of my accumulations...lol.  Congrats to all.  We witnessed history yesterday.  I'll bet it will be quite some time before MDT breaks their new 30" record.  Probably not even in my lifetime.

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