Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[JC-CT]

So Freak..I think I like your call from 90 south of 4-8..I think J-CT area gets 10+

I don't know man...latest hrrr really struggles to push this thing north. Looks like rgem. I'm not feeling any further north trend. Radar looks like it is pivoting due east.

[googmoog]

Can I have an estimate for NY? The Kingston/Poughkeepsie area? 

[lakeeffectkid383]

Yeah I don't think this things making it as far north as some are thinking. I wouldn't expect more then 1-3" near the pike.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It seems like the dry air from Philly to nyc was scoured out quickly yesterday evening or maybe it was overblown there in the first place so you knew totals were going up there. But overnight in CT the dry air wouldn't moisten. I almost want to run outside with my humidifier now.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Can I have an estimate for NY? The Kingston/Poughkeepsie area?

3-6"?

[medmax]

Much higher

[medmax]

Yeah I don't think this things making it as far north as some are thinking. I wouldn't expect more then 1-3" near the pike.

What are you basing that on? Not supposed to snow til later.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't know man...latest hrrr really struggles to push this thing north. Looks like rgem. I'm not feeling any further north trend. Radar looks like it is pivoting due east.

Don't need it. Euro got .50 up to here to Scoots.. Plenty for 4-8 . GFS bumped again. Seems like things are looking good

[dendrite]

Ironic...all we have heard about is how large of a circulation this major, bad a$$ blizzard has, yet it is ging to cross the BM and supposedly drop jack $hit throughout most of sne?

Ok....

It still is. The H7 low is off the Delmarva and the deformation is up into SW CT. The redevelopment will eventually put the sfc low near the BM and threaten the Cape with the restrengthening CCB...confluence is a b**ch though and ruined our potential fun.

[mahofan]

UKIE is encouraging

Where the heck should i stay tomm, that will keep power

Looking at New Haven, Groton or Wareham,Ma

That wall of precip in E VA and Delmarva is sick

We have our own utility here in Groton. When the rest of the state is struggling with CL&P, we generally have our power back. I'd shoot for Groton.

[JC-CT]

Don't need it. Euro got .50 up to here to Scoots.. Plenty for 4-8 . GFS bumped again. Seems like things are looking good

They've been playing catch up. It's a total now cast deal.

[ineedsnow]

What happened last night seems like things bumped north

[Modfan]

They've been playing catch up. It's a total now cast deal.

Agreed. I think areas near Ginx, NW RI have the possibility of 10 MAYBE 11 based on HRRR, just a hunch.

[N. OF PIKE]

We have our own utility here in Groton. When the rest of the state is struggling with CL&P, we generally have our power back. I'd shoot for Groton.

Are you snowing

[medmax]

We will have this conversation tomorrow when I am driving to work in snow covered roads.

[JC-CT]

It's clear we are dealing with a multirun cutback of northern precipitation on the hrrr. You know it's not good when totals keep getting cut even when in theory the storm is going on farther in time.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks good this AM. Seeing some of these hires models hold serve and euro/GFS being a bit more bullish will make for an interesting time down here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Has anyone had a chance to look at cross sections down in SE MA? Curious on ratios as I haven't seen it discussed much. I've been going on basic 10-12:1 as of now.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's clear we are dealing with a multirun cutback of northern precipitation on the hrrr. You know it's not good when totals keep getting cut even when in theory the storm is going on farther in time.

[N. OF PIKE]

Looks to me like a super band is about to set up NE NJ over to Long Island and parts of SW CT as well as L.I sound

My gut says it lines up N of NYC and reaches right along S CT coast eventually w sharp cut off just north

[Tolland Death Band]

The eastern CT sucker hole that showed up on the models is coming to fruition. Dry air chewing everything up

[jhj]

not any more snowing in se ct

[CTNoreaster]

SN+ moved into SW CT unreal band right now! 

[JC-CT]

Guys there's an obs thread

[JC-CT]

Rgem performance on this one has been disappointing. It has become people's go to meso but it really vomited on itself this time.

[Ginx snewx]

NwS converted to warning NCT.6-10

[Morch Madness]

Advisory up for BOS, 2-5"

[OceanStWx]

 

Interesting excerpt from State College, PA AFD:

 

 

QPF FROM 00Z RUNS CONTINUES A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND. NAM AND SREFS

NOT LETTING GO AND SEEM TO HAVE MORE MERIT THAN SOME FORECASTERS

WERE GIVING THEM PRIOR TO THE STORM. A CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH WOULD

HAVE INCLUDED THESE MODELS/MEMBERS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE THE BEST

FCST - AS IT MOST TIMES IS. A SLIGHT MOVE WAS MADE TO THIS END

OVER THE LAST 24-30 HRS OF THE FORECAST. BUT MORE CREEDENCE NOW

GIVEN TO THEIR SOLUTIONS OF QPF WITH HRRR AND RUC SUPPORTING NEXT

SEVERAL HRS. SLR/S WORKING OFF THE GFS TEMP PROFILE IN THE SRN

COS NOW LOOK TO BE 15-20:1 IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS TO COME THIS

MORNING. 12-15:1 STILL LOOK OK FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

CHANGES TO SNOW AMOUNTS WITH MOST AREAS HAVING ANOTHER 20-30PCT

ADDED ON TO THEM. SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED LAST

NIGHT...AND AMOUNTS IN ALREADY ARE WELL OVER THE FORECAST CURVE IN

MANY PLACES. HOISTING WARNING WHERE CURRENT ADVYS EXIST FROM STATE

COLLEGE EASTWARD. WILL HOLD THE ADVY IN CLEARFIELD/NRN CENTRE AND

ADD A STRIPE FOR SRN LYC AND CLINTON AS A BUFFER BETWEEN LOTS AND

NIL.

 

 

I know we joke around here about tossing solutions all the time, but it's an important reminder that it's usually unwise to completely remove a model unless there is an obvious reason. 

 

Clearly the NAM wasn't a bad model to blend in this time around, I would argue the SREF were, especially up here. But CTP loves the SREF.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Just east of the Tidewater:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I just woke up, took a look at RAD and vomited.

 

There will be no miracle.