Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[HoarfrostHubb]

Can you link WV?

TIA

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browse3.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS is actually worse in e MA.

[Hoth]

Right on cue, the GFS turns outies to innies after a great RGEM run. What a wet blanket its been.

Meh, it's hardly infallible. Still heartening that it bumped up significantly southwest of here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

GFS is meh for eastern ma

[CT Rain]

GFS is meh for eastern ma

 

GFS is about the same for Hartford/New Haven. Better west of there... worst east of there. 

[EastonSN+]

Does anyone have the latest srefs?

[JC-CT]

Super el nino going to eat winter alive...not.

I have badly for DT...not even 4".

He's got a super slug of SN++ coming right at him. He might bust most on his credibility.

[MJO812]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

GFS is about the same for Hartford/New Haven. Better west of there... worst east of there.

Wonder if it's playing catch up like Will mentioned I believe.

Who knows..... Feels like we get a good model run and the next piece of guidance comes out and is pretty meh.

Real tough call.

[JC-CT]

They do some very odd things sometimes

[WhiteLawns]

Mpm gonna get snows?

[JC-CT]

Mpm gonna get snows?

No

[wxsniss]

System is clearing chugging along faster than progged...

 

In addition to the further north track, wonder if that accelerated timeframe also gives us in SNE a better chance of benefiting from the better dynamics

[Randy4Confluence]

Can't wait til this catastrophe's behind us.

[HoarfrostHubb]

LL just got upgraded to 18-24". Maybe blizzard warning soon

[SR Airglow]

OKX just upgraded the CT coastline to blizzard warnings and the interior portions of the southern four CT counties to WSW's.

[weathafella]

LL just got upgraded to 18-24". Maybe blizzard warning soon

LL?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Harvey took numbers down a bit

[Ginx snewx]

RGEM forced OKX hand. Blizzard warning at my work in NL county

[nutmegfriar]

As I expected, the blizzard warning made the short hop across LI Sound.  12"-18", well we'll see.  I'll be thrilled with a foot of snow.  Good luck everybody!

[EastonSN+]

GFS ramped up pretty big for NYC and SW CT.

Still pretty shredded off to the east.

Have a question. Why does the GFS have that drop off to the east while the rgem is not as dramatic? Which is most likely correct?

[CoastalWx]

The Canadian also shows the band getting into CT before encountering drier air and getting shredded as it goes ENE. There may be a min in snow somewhere in between CT and eastern MA until you get to SE MA.

[#NoPoles]

Have a question. Why does the GFS have that drop off to the east while the rgem is not as dramatic? Which is most likely correct?

Ask again on Sunday

[metagraphica]

As I expected, the blizzard warning made the short hop across LI Sound. 12"-18", well we'll see. I'll be thrilled with a foot of snow. Good luck everybody!

Yep, been expecting 10"+. This should be a blast tomorrow.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N900A using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

Have a question. Why does the GFS have that drop off to the east while the rgem is not as dramatic? Which is most likely correct?

 

I'm leaning toward the RGEM...GFS shuts down the fronto pretty quickly, but I am of the opinion that the models in general have been doing that too quickly...they were doing it to NYC 24 hours ago. I don't expect 20" off to the east, but I also don't expect SW CT to get buried while Newport, RI chokes on dry air...that doesn't make much sense to me unless you have a big high or big confluence to the northeast such as PDI (Feb 1979) or something like Jan 27-28, 2004.

[SR Airglow]

LL?

LitchfieldLibations aka Mr. Torchy. Banned poster from Fairfield, CT who was the ultimate warmanista.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Harv just updated his map, and it is now identical to mine.

Sweet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Have a question. Why does the GFS have that drop off to the east while the rgem is not as dramatic? Which is most likely correct?

GFS blows.

Disregard.

[sankaty]

CMC bumps everything north about 40 miles.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian was a big flag IMO to the band. Might even get to 84 in good shape. But yeah...I know there will be dry air...but it's tough to see UUU choking on exhaust with west of them in good snows. HRRR whether it's right or not..makes sense. Maybe a big initial pulse. Then, you get a weakening before a second surge of WAA moves in..something like that.