Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jealous!

 

I can't wait to see how this on evolves. I'm guessing we've got a bunch of surprises to come. 

Wow...Ryan talking surprises....the no $hit weatherman.

Got real.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4k NAM still give hope to those s.pike

You won't say it......but I can tell by your conscious effort to throw "s of pike" in there that you are hoping for the northern weenie band

[ORH_wxman]

Jealous!

 

I can't wait to see how this on evolves. I'm guessing we've got a bunch of surprises to come. 

 

From a physics and thermodynamics standpoint, I have conflicting feelings...

 

The dry air drain is going to get strong as the storm approaches...so I'm worried about arctic sand with 2 mile vis under 30 dbz on the northern periphery.....but on the other hand, I am worried that the models are just simply playing catchup with the very intense divergence aloft, they keep translating northeastward in time...once beyond 12-18 hours, the models keep breaking up the band and we all say "well of course, the arctic drain is going to shred it to pieces", but that is assuming that the model is right with weakening the intense divergence aloft that is causing the obscene banding in the first place...and I can't help think that the models are erroneously doing this too quickly which is why once an area is <18 hours out, they keep seeing a more dynamic solution.

 

We know there is going to be an arctic sand line somewhere, but I'm wonderin gif it further north than we think and that really intense 500-700 fronto doesn't allow the band to weaken as much as models think beyond 12h.

[40/70 Benchmark]

From a physics and thermodynamics standpoint, I have conflicting feelings...

 

The dry air drain is going to get strong as the storm approaches...so I'm worried about arctic sand with 2 mile vis under 30 dbz on the northern periphery.....but on the other hand, I am worried that the models are just simply playing catchup with the very intense divergence aloft, they keep translating northeastward in time...once beyond 12-18 hours, the models keep breaking up the band and we all say "well of course, the arctic drain is going to shred it to pieces", but that is assuming that the model is right with weakening the intense divergence aloft that is causing the obscene banding in the first place...and I can't help think that the models are erroneously doing this too quickly which is why once an area is <18 hours out, they keep seeing a more dynamic solution.

 

We know there is going to be an arctic sand line somewhere, but I'm wonderin gif it further north than we think and that really intense 500-700 fronto doesn't allow the band to weaken as much as models think beyond 12h.

I wouldn't sleep on this from the NH border points south.

 

Expect nothing, but be prepared for everything.

[Bostonseminole]

You won't say it......but I can tell by your conscious effort to throw "s of pike" in there that you are hoping for the northern weenie band

lol just got back to the movies and catching up.. RGEM wowl.. we need another 20-30 miles.. 

[Ginx snewx]

Will, thats been in my head since I posted about the models filling in that Delaware NJ dry area. Someone is channeling me,lol.

[Bostonseminole]

From a physics and thermodynamics standpoint, I have conflicting feelings...

 

The dry air drain is going to get strong as the storm approaches...so I'm worried about arctic sand with 2 mile vis under 30 dbz on the northern periphery.....but on the other hand, I am worried that the models are just simply playing catchup with the very intense divergence aloft, they keep translating northeastward in time...once beyond 12-18 hours, the models keep breaking up the band and we all say "well of course, the arctic drain is going to shred it to pieces", but that is assuming that the model is right with weakening the intense divergence aloft that is causing the obscene banding in the first place...and I can't help think that the models are erroneously doing this too quickly which is why once an area is <18 hours out, they keep seeing a more dynamic solution.

 

We know there is going to be an arctic sand line somewhere, but I'm wonderin gif it further north than we think and that really intense 500-700 fronto doesn't allow the band to weaken as much as models think beyond 12h.

i just got pants tent

[CoastalWx]

From a physics and thermodynamics standpoint, I have conflicting feelings...

 

The dry air drain is going to get strong as the storm approaches...so I'm worried about arctic sand with 2 mile vis under 30 dbz on the northern periphery.....but on the other hand, I am worried that the models are just simply playing catchup with the very intense divergence aloft, they keep translating northeastward in time...once beyond 12-18 hours, the models keep breaking up the band and we all say "well of course, the arctic drain is going to shred it to pieces", but that is assuming that the model is right with weakening the intense divergence aloft that is causing the obscene banding in the first place...and I can't help think that the models are erroneously doing this too quickly which is why once an area is <18 hours out, they keep seeing a more dynamic solution.

 

We know there is going to be an arctic sand line somewhere, but I'm wonderin gif it further north than we think and that really intense 500-700 fronto doesn't allow the band to weaken as much as models think beyond 12h.

 

 

I think we all share those...I know I do. My red flag was always the splitting and deformation shown on models...but the dry air is more than I remember in some situations like this...and sometimes that is underestimated...so it's a tough call.  However, I would be lying if I said that Boston will be fine with lighter snows. I also think s shore may get a good ocean effect contribution too. Like I said earlier...this is almost a nowcast deal.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I wouldn't sleep on this from the NH border points south.

Expect nothing, but be prepared for everything.

Meh. An angry inch. That is all

[CT Valley Snowman]

RGEM looks close to high Res Nam around here , probably better for SW areas. Can this trend continue ? 2-3 is better than nothing but If I could pull 6 that would be a huge victory.

[HullMA]

Can't seem put this one to  rest.

Yup.

[SR Airglow]

GFS is at least holding from 18z through 24 -- might be a little north we'll know in next few panels.

Edit: Pretty much identical at hour 30. 

[CoastalWx]

The other issue arguing the band further north, is as this occludes...you lose the good push of WAA like they will have into the mid atlantic and NYC. So that goes to the shredding of the band too. You really want the good WAA push into the area, and not just a TROWAL slowing moving NE and getting eaten alive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Meh. An angry inch. That is all

Yea, and this is 1998 all over again, oops

[weathafella]

Gfs is underwhelming but I don't trust it at this point.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS ramped up pretty big for NYC and SW CT.

 

Still pretty shredded off to the east.

[TalcottWx]

Damn...rgem looks like a crush job with significant oes for Bos!

I've been banging the oes drum hard for days!!

[CT Rain]

The other issue arguing the band further north, is as this occludes...you lose the good push of WAA like they will have into the mid atlantic and NYC. So that goes to the shredding of the band too. You really want the good WAA push into the area, and not just a TROWAL slowing moving NE and getting eaten alive.

 

Yeah we're going to see a lot of the advective processes just shut off.

 

There's going to be some monster frontogenesis though near Long Island - I guess my concern is that we see areas just north of that get totally hosed with exhaust from what turns into an LIE super band. 

[Hoth]

I wouldn't sleep on this from the NH border points south.

 

Expect nothing, but be prepared for everything.

Yeah Ray, I am really encouraged by the satellite presentation. That convection is absolutely ripping north off the coast. Expectations have been 0" for days, so any snow is a positive bust.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

gfs crushes phl nyc into sw ct. What a juju reversal down here. 

 

Music city miracle it is!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah Ray, I am really encouraged by the satellite presentation. That convection is absolutely ripping north off the coast. Expectations have been 0" for days, so any snow is a positive bust.

My forecast here is nothing to an inch or two...but there is a higher just potential here than average is all I mean.

[Bostonseminole]

I've been banging the oes drum hard for days!!

yeah we heard .. lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

That water vapor loop. Just stunningly beautiful. Best since 3/1993?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yea, and this is 1998 all over again, oops

1998?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1998?

Super el nino going to eat winter alive...not.

 

I have badly for DT...not even 4".

[HoarfrostHubb]

Super el nino going to eat winter alive...not.

I have badly for DT...not even 4".

Ah. I understand

Woof

[N. OF PIKE]

Already snowing in parts of NYC by 1030 pm.

Well ahead of schedule

If this waa push is stronger than modeled i think lower hudson valley and w ct could score nicely

Late tonight

Im not bullish on ema but nothing with this storm would totally shock me, like seeing it push north into S Delaware by morning and see areas like Scranton Pa over perform

We could use that new mid level low developing about 75 miles Wnw of where nam has it

[SouthCoastMA]

Right on cue, the GFS turns outies to innies after a great RGEM run. What a wet blanket its been.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ah. I understand

Woof

Can you link WV?

TIA

[CT Valley Snowman]

Box almost never divides HFD county north/south with advisories and warnings but this could be a case where Southern half of HFD county gets warning snows vs. advisory north.