Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[SR Airglow]

Wow that looks awesome on the RGEM -- hard to tell when adding up those panels but that's probably close to warning snows at BOS? We'll see when Meteocentre comes out in a few minutes.

[JC-CT]

Judging by the radar, I'd be surprised if it hasn't already busted low in Central PA - for the entire run.

[wxsniss]

Between 27-36 hours, that low just sits and spins right at the benchmark

[Patrick-02540]

Hugely better RGEM, that's not just an incremental improvement.

Gotta say as much as we poo poo the NAM, it has really led this north charge all day. QPF may be excessive but the globals including Euro have followed it all day. We'll see how this plays out in reality...

Yesterday's NAM was starting something. Look at it now and compare tomorrow. Might be pretty good, ya know?

[Ginx snewx]

96ing?

[ORH_wxman]

The RGEM really did just jump like 50 miles in the first 12 hours of the run compared to 18z. This is supposed to be its range too.

 

Guidance has been catching up all day in that first 12 hours....then it seems to do its own thing, but we've seen them all come on board for NYC area today.

 

This is why I think southern areas will do well. Models will probably keep catching up there. It's kind of hard to disintigrate heavy snow bands in a couple hours with like a 160 wind at 40 knots at H5 down south. So we'll see.

 

The ULL being larger helps increase the circulation to the north which pushes the "wall" to the north a bit too.

[NorEastermass128]

Any map?

I couldn't change the map JC posted to 00z

[UnionWeatherWx]

SNE, you guys aren't out of the game, don't give up. Snow started here 4 hours earlier then progged. No virga, instant.

[Ginx snewx]

A total Messenger 24 hours of modelling. Keeping increasing qpf on the NE flank.

[weathafella]

RGEM maps? Cashing in for my RPM posts.

And then later oes...

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't expect much of anything.....even if that banding tried, the CJ subsidence will kill whatever makes it.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that's the thing, Will. I note Se winds at H5, but I would expect more robust echoes than shown. Another flag that makes me worried of a band NW. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

SNE, you guys aren't out of the game, don't give up. Snow started here 4 hours earlier then progged. No virga, instant.

That may be so but dropping temps and dew tell me the wall may be the MA/CT border up here. Already 17/13 here.

[CT Rain]

A total Messenger 24 hours of modelling. Keeping increasing qpf on the NE flank.

 

This storm would have been a cweat special. RIP. 

[Brian5671]

RGEM thru 30

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah that's the thing, Will. I note Se winds at H5, but I would expect more robust echoes than shown. Another flag that makes me worried of a band NW. 

I have been banking in it.

Watch.

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM total precip

 

[Ginx snewx]

RGEM thru 30

um oh hi

[The 4 Seasons]

Jesus, Most of CT now in it with the 00Z RGEM

[ORH_wxman]

That's about as big a jump as you'll see the RGEM typically make these days inside of 36h.

[weathafella]

Significant bump north on rgem. Sangiovese....best before snow.

[Hazey]

It's looking the the piece o crap nam might just have scored a coup. Pending verification.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Somebody break into DIT's house and pour a bucket of ice water on him. Wake up!

[#NoPoles]

Well, NYC looks like a 2nd jackpot...how far things have come for them

[CT Rain]

Significant bump north on rgem. Sangiovese....best before snow.

 

Jealous!

 

I can't wait to see how this on evolves. I'm guessing we've got a bunch of surprises to come. 

[ROOSTA]

Trying to get the radar on one page. Looking at the full circulation, have to zoom out to 1/2 Conus size. WOW.

Oh and it's snowing in the panhandle.

[JC-CT]

That's about as big a jump as you'll see the RGEM typically make these days inside of 36h.

 

Yeah it was quite a bit more than 50 miles

[sankaty]

Jealous!

 

I can't wait to see how this on evolves. I'm guessing we've got a bunch of surprises to come. 

 

The only storm I can remember that was close to this suspenseful (in a mainly positive way so far) was 1/26-27/11.  Hopefully, this turns out as well as that did. 

[Bostonseminole]

4km NAM is north of the OP run.

4k NAM still give hope to those s.pike

[kdxken]

Can't seem put this one to  rest.