Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[wxsniss]

Not surprisingly, the more confluence exerts itself and the tighter the gradient, the more prodigious that frontogenic band becomes. Dismiss it as inaccurate, but the NAM sure has been precise for at least the past day.

 

Wonder if we'll see expansion of blizzard warnings to south coast areas tomorrow.

 

I can't see H5 on the 4k Nam but the QPF distribution looks like eastern SNE benefits from a last minute little CCB perhaps a lobe of vorticity slings up (ie. rather than northward progression of the C-PA / NYC / LI death band).

[Ginx snewx]

I never doubted NYC.

if that run comes to fruition they face a double threat, big surge with those winds and that fetch

[TalcottWx]

Being facetious.

Take it to banter or u get timeout

[78Blizzard]

With 0.75 qpf?

My error.  Was looking at 12KM.

[JC-CT]

Rgem looks pretty good for down here

 

Also looks to have some weenie OES enhancement for the south shore. By far the best rgem run so far for a lot of places.

[Hoth]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_009_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

For what its worth.

Check out this water vapor loop!!!!! Look east of florida check out how fast that energy shoots up to NC! Absolutely insane.

Just about the most gorgeous WV loop I've seen in my adulthood.

[BostonWX]

I'm generally not worried about virga imby or deeper into the south shore with that NE flow moistening the lower levels, like ORH will said. A couple inches of sand at least preserves the look of winter with under 10 inches of snow in late jan...

[H2Otown_WX]

Also looks to have some weenie OES enhancement for the south shore. By far the best rgem run so far for a lot of places.

How far north does the 0.5 line get?

[weathafella]

Where are you getting rgem this soon?

[JC-CT]

How far north does the 0.5 line get?

No idea. Only looking at the ptype map

[JC-CT]

Where are you getting rgem this soon?

The ptype map that goes from rgem to ggem always comes out first

[Patrick-02540]

Just about the most gorgeous WV loop I've seen in my adulthood.

How old are you?

[JC-CT]

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[CoastalWx]

I'm generally not worried about virga imby or deeper into the south shore with that NE flow moistening the lower levels, like ORH will said. A couple inches of sand at least preserves the look of winter with under 10 inches of snow in late jan...

 

The dry air is above that...like 850 and up. The saturated low levels will help, but the dry air aloft is there.

 

But the banding is my concern. I just don't like being on the north side of it. However, part of me is concerned 700-500 frontogenesis produces a band further NW then I think. I've seen it so many times. On the other hand, that is a low chance IMO..at least into BOS.

[NorEastermass128]

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

That's the 18z

[JC-CT]

That's the 18z

You can change the date lol

[sankaty]

That's the 18z

 

Just change the timestamp to 0Z on the 23rd.  The heavy precip makes it much farther north into CT.

[ORH_wxman]

Also looks to have some weenie OES enhancement for the south shore. By far the best rgem run so far for a lot of places.

 

Yeah that is easily the best run...it gets the main initial fronto band up into the pike region even....though it is weakened by that point, but still enough to probably give some accumulations.

[jm1220]

The dry air is above that...like 850 and up. The saturated low levels will help, but the dry air aloft is there.

 

But the banding is my concern. I just don't like being on the north side of it. However, part of me is concerned 700-500 frontogenesis produces a band further NW then I think. I've seen it so many times. On the other hand, that is a low chance IMO..at least into BOS.

I hear you there. The more ferocious that band is, the worse the gradient is to the north of it. Didn't Jan 1996 go from 30" in Great Barrington to nothing in Albany? PDII also went from I think 22" in Scranton, PA to 1" in Binghamton. We all know about how 2/6/10 turned out between NYC and PHL. And Miller B's are supposed to have sharp cutoffs...

[jm1220]

Hopefully the northern band does somehow make it to Boston, for this monster's NESIS rating, and for fewer starved weenies. I was dumb enough to skip out on flying back to NYC for this one. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

rgem is way better. much further north. wow!

[CoastalWx]

Good RGEM wrun.

[BostonWX]

The dry air is above that...like 850 and up. The saturated low levels will help, but the dry air aloft is there.

 

But the banding is my concern. I just don't like being on the north side of it. However, part of me is concerned 700-500 frontogenesis produces a band further NW then I think. I've seen it so many times. On the other hand, that is a low chance IMO..at least into BOS.

 

Expectations are really really low, I'll be happy with any accumulation. There could definitely be a band NW and crap snizzle over us, but more often than not it'll setup up favorably for us and over the usual CJ spots.

[OceanStWx]

The dry air is above that...like 850 and up. The saturated low levels will help, but the dry air aloft is there.

 

But the banding is my concern. I just don't like being on the north side of it. However, part of me is concerned 700-500 frontogenesis produces a band further NW then I think. I've seen it so many times. On the other hand, that is a low chance IMO..at least into BOS.

 

Yeah you can see it on the 00z soundings. 850 to about 650 mb.

[J Paul Gordon]

Looks like there may be a period of relatively heavy snow even this far north (ORH) on the 0z Canadian link.

[EastonSN+]

rgem is way better. much further north. wow!

We still in the game for the big stuff!

[weathafella]

Damn...rgem looks like a crush job with significant oes for Bos!

[BostonWX]

RGEM maps? Cashing in for my RPM posts.

[JC-CT]

The RGEM really did just jump like 50 miles in the first 12 hours of the run compared to 18z. This is supposed to be its range too.

[wxsniss]

Hugely better RGEM, that's not just an incremental improvement.

 

Gotta say as much as we poo poo the NAM, it has really led this north charge all day. QPF may be excessive but the globals including Euro have followed it all day. We'll see how this plays out in reality...