Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[JC-CT]

fine with me,maybe click on it?

I don't know, two different comps and a phone and they all look small and blurry to me.

[CoastalWx]

Mega CCB wonder if Scooter has a pail and bucket he can borrow from Bryce

 

I hope, but not sure we buy.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah its pretty good for BOS

 

Brutal run for TAN.

[JC-CT]

That image didn't seem that small to me...hmmm...I mean it's zoomed out a bit. But the actual image size roughly fits the post space.

Maybe it's just my eyes

[ORH_wxman]

I would think if anything, that lends credence for the 3-6 call for BOS. Not sure I'd hedge that high, yet.

 

I don't think 3-6 for BOS is a bad call anyway...they will prob get some weenie OES and they do sort of rot on the periphery of the leftover mid-level CCB on late Sat night so they could pile up a few inches from that getting just a little extra juice infused from the OES.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Per NYC obs thread, snow is starting in southern portions of the city.

Is that earlier than progged?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't know, two different comps and a phone and they all look small and blurry to me.

40 years old?

[Ginx snewx]

Stunned

[CT Valley Snowman]

I'm with Ray, QPF shadow and northerly drainage down the valley, I'll take 3 and run here too. We could be taking about a 2-18 inch range in CT if some death band gets up into lower Fairfield county.

[NorEastermass128]

I don't think 3-6 for BOS is a bad call anyway...they will prob get some weenie OES and they do sort of rot on the periphery of the leftover mid-level CCB on late Sat night so they could pile up a few inches from that getting just a little extra juice infused from the OES.

I'd take a few inches and be happier than a pig in you know what.

Alas, I bet the northern edge gets eaten away. However, if you're in the show, you may get more than advertised.

[JC-CT]

40 years old?

 

No, just blind

[Ginx snewx]

Give Forky props if this blows up he has been consistently insisting it will

[78Blizzard]

Where do I sign for the 4km NAM? Looks like about 6" for Boston

More like 3".

[BostonWX]

I don't think 3-6 for BOS is a bad call anyway...they will prob get some weenie OES and they do sort of rot on the periphery of the leftover mid-level CCB on late Sat night so they could pile up a few inches from that getting just a little extra juice infused from the OES.

 

Yeah I think 3-5 or 6 is pretty reasonable. That OES stuff should soften the blow from the virga and account for at least a couple inches. That finger present on most models is probably an expression of the OES I would guess, right? I'm sure there are some mid level features associated with it too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Is that earlier than progged?

 

I believe so. upton mentioned in their afd this evening that precip is breaking out earlier than expected in their sw zones. 

[JC-CT]

More like 3".

 

No, more like 6

[FRWEATHA]

Brutal run for TAN.

Brutal in what way? Good or bad?

[HullMA]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_009_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

For what its worth.

Check out this water vapor loop!!!!! Look east of florida check out how fast that energy shoots up to NC! Absolutely insane.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I think 3-5 or 6 is pretty reasonable. That OES stuff should soften the blow from the virga and account for at least a couple inches. That finger present on most models is probably an expression of the OES I would guess, right? I'm sure there are some mid level features associated with it too.

 

Yeah the finger is not pure OES as it runs inland too over N RI and interior E MA...it's on the axis of the 500-700 fronto. So it may be just an extra small push to erode that low level dryness and get an extra couple inches of sand.

[butterfish55]

Brutal run for TAN.

They put a big "13" on my house

[weathafella]

More like 3".

With 0.75 qpf?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12-1am here it started before 6

Not sure if it  means anything, but snow is running waaaaaay ahead of schedule in the NYC metro area....no resistance what so ever.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Brutal in what way? Good or bad?

Being facetious.

[FRWEATHA]

They put a big "13" on my house

Okay. Answers my question. I guess that means there's a 14 over my house.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Give Forky props if this blows up he has been consistently insisting it will

I never doubted NYC.

[Baroclinic Zone]

With 0.75 qpf?

Yeah, that's way more than 3" for BOS, based on that output.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Not sure if it  means anything, but snow is running waaaaaay ahead of schedule in the NYC metro area....no resistance what so ever.

 

thats what Im thinking man. 

 

all global models struggled to get precip north of philly until overnight hours....but I watched radar just blast into NJ with no resistance. My bro in WNJ reported snow instantly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

thats what Im thinking man. 

 

all global models struggled to get precip north of philly until overnight hours....but I watched radar just blast into NJ with no resistance. My bro in WNJ reported snow instantly. 

Probably won't mean much here, but have to think the south of pike crowd may avail of it.

[JC-CT]

Rgem looks pretty good for down here

[TalcottWx]

More like 3".

0.75 = 3" of snow?