Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[CoastalWx]

The 3-6 IMO would need OEs contribution. I don't think we can get that synoptically near I-90 in BOS area.

[SR Airglow]

Where do you get the HRRR to 24 hours? I thought it only went to 15.

 

SREFS still running the 1" line from the NW corner of CT across the Pike region and through BOS. 

[CoastalWx]

Where do you get the HRRR to 24 hours? I thought it only went to 15.

 

SREFS still running the 1" line from the NW corner of CT across the Pike region and through BOS. 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

My final weenie call for CT folk and a few outside the state:

In state:

DXR- 9"
BDL- 2"
TOL- 4" at base, 5.5" at summit
JC-CT- 7"
GINX- 8"
BDR- 16"
HVN- 14"

Out of state:

BOS- 3"
NYC- 18"
PHIL- 22"
DC- 17"

 

Caveat...I have funny weenie tickle this may come more north. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Exactly what mine would look like.. Though I'd go 8-12+ coastal CT to Mass

Wow.....my call looks like his.

 

Glad.

[Johnno]

Yeah, that's when it would start.

Kinda what i thought as well, didn't think I'd see a flake here till after 12

[40/70 Benchmark]

The 3-6 IMO would need OEs contribution. I don't think we can get that synoptically near I-90 in BOS area.

We should get oes contribution. 

I banked on it.

[SR Airglow]

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi

Thanks!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Is Harvey good?

Legend around here.

[Damage In Tolland]

Legend around here.

Like Marshall Sease in Atlanta?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Like Marshall Sease in Atlanta?

No, Edwards in the best location in the nation.

[CoastalWx]

The dynamics in DC may rival the Jan blizz last year. Miller As are juice monsters.

[78Blizzard]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=clkn7

 

Center of system looks to be near Cape Lookout, or just west.

[weathafella]

[Go Kart Mozart]

Did he say what the darker blue shade was in Southern CT?

50" - 100"

[TalcottWx]

Is Harvey good?

Sarcasm or what

[TalcottWx]

Is Harvey good?

This might be the single most brutal post you've made.

[78Blizzard]

image.png

I'd be happy with that strip in NE MA and southern NH if it moves down 50 miles and verifies.

[Ginx snewx]

Beginner/hobby meteorologist here. Question for the group: why will the dry air north of the storm so strongly prevent the storm from continuing on the northerly path it seems to be taking at the moment? The storm appears to have a strong anchor in moisture from the south - why does this not feed enough moisture to drive the storm's momentum and prevent it from taking the easterly turn the models are predicting?

its more involved in physics of relocation of mid levels as triple point reformation takes place. Occlusion processes also occur. Storms are not perpetual. High pressure to the north is like a wall. Spray a hose against a wall and it diverts from its original path.

[Ginx snewx]

Thanks!

post that 24 hr total,holy crap for LI NY

[The 4 Seasons]

The 00Z RPM is actually coming in better than the 21Z, i thought it would continue the trend of coming back to earth but it seems its back to being very bullish looks closer to the earlier runs today so far..

 

SR: I thought that too but its HRRRX which is extended Range HRRR on wxbell. And it actually looks very good for CT has .7-.9 down the CT shore tomorrow aftnoon but i dont think its worth much just an exp model at the time.

[Ginx snewx]

The dynamics in DC may rival the Jan blizz last year. Miller As are juice monsters.

Feb 13 too. I could see a CCt type band

[Ginx snewx]

Sarcasm or what

Email Harv

[Animal]

image.png

 

Thanks for posting. Best run yet for my area.

[Ginx snewx]

The 00Z RPM is actually coming in better than the 21Z, i thought it would continue the trend of coming back to earth but it seems its back to being very bullish looks closer to the earlier runs today so far..

SR: I thought that too but its HRRRX which is extended Range HRRR on wxbell. And it actually looks very good for CT has .7-.9 down the CT shore tomorrow aftnoon but i dont think its worth much just an exp model at the time.

thats hourly operational now

[40/70 Benchmark]

The 00Z RPM is actually coming in better than the 21Z, i thought it would continue the trend of coming back to earth but it seems its back to being very bullish looks closer to the earlier runs today so far..

 

SR: I thought that too but its HRRRX which is extended Range HRRR on wxbell. And it actually looks very good for CT has .7-.9 down the CT shore tomorrow aftnoon but i dont think its worth much just an exp model at the time.

I wouldn't just toss it if it actually trended north....I mean, that model has some value.

I have checked it out before...I wouldn't base your forecast off of it, but take it as a caveat that this could have some northern legs.

[OceanStWx]

thats hourly operational now

 

Yeah, that HRRRX will eventually replace the HRRR.

[Morch Madness]

That is a notable bump on the SREFs. At 15z there were 7 members with less than 6" at BOS, while with the 21z there are only 3.

 

I guess they'll never cave.

[powderfreak]

I wouldn't just toss it if it actually trended north....I mean, that model has some value.

I have checked it out before...I wouldn't base your forecast off of it, but take it as a caveat that this could have some northern legs.

The RPM is run off an ARW core...it's as useful as the SREF ARW members.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I really like what I see so far. Esp for the phil to nyc weenie corridor.