Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[SR Airglow]

Our latest. Tough call for sure and I could see this busting in either direction.

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Phil

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Harvey is pretty bullish

[JC-CT]

I don't believe there's any chance of that . Every model gets measurable to or past the border

 

Odds of a shutout are lower than they were yesterday for sure. But I could easily see never getting into the really good banding and ending up with the lower end of, say, Ryan's stations's forecast.

[Ginx snewx]

The man is a legend. Wow what an AFD

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[JC-CT]

The man is a legend. Wow what an AFD

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

How much for Philly?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Sleet moving into CVA, as forecasted by nam. Sorry DT.

[rogue]

So far not too impressed with radar down south...best stuff is south of delmarva

 

Tom's River NJ is reporting moderate snow.

[FRWEATHA]

Harvey is pretty bullish

just got in from work.What's he going for here?

[TalcottWx]

Harvey is pretty bullish

Details? Come on Christ

[Damage In Tolland]

Odds of a shutout are lower than they were yesterday for sure. But I could easily see never getting into the really good banding and ending up with the lower end of, say, Ryan's stations's forecast.

Its my opinion that Freaks band sets up shop right over your head .

[JC-CT]

Its my opinion that Freaks band sets up shop right over your head .

 

Who knows. I must say though, this looks to be the most interesting advisory snowfall I've ever tracked.

[8611Blizz]

Harvey basically splits the city in half. Northern half 1-3 and southern 3-6" but he does seem to leave open the chance for higher amounts.   

[Damage In Tolland]

Is Harvey good?

[BostonWX]

I would agree (for BOS), 3-5 BOS south, 5-10 SE MA and maybe a tick higher immediate south coast. Probably won't overcome the dry air much past 128 to 495..

[CoastalWx]

The one caveat in Boston is OES. There is the chance that skinny band dumps a few inches at least in localEs spots. Models always seem to underestimate that if it remains steady on the cold side of the coastal front.

[Damage In Tolland]

Can someone post his map?

[BostonWX]

Harvey

 

[Sn0waddict]

Did he say what the darker blue shade was in Southern CT?

[powderfreak]

The man is a legend. Wow what an AFD

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

This is why you forecast above normal seasonal snow amounts in the mid-Atlantic if you even think there's a chance of a storm...

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENTIRE SEASONS NORMAL SNOWFALL WILL

OCCUR IN ONE STORM, BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

PHILADELPHIA 22.4

ALLENTOWN 32.9

ATLANTIC CITY 16.5

WILMINGTON 20.2

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Did he say what the darker blue shade was in Southern CT?

Expect 10", probable for more.

[sittingathome]

Beginner/hobby meteorologist here. Question for the group: why will the dry air north of the storm so strongly prevent the storm from continuing on the northerly path it seems to be taking at the moment? The storm appears to have a strong anchor in moisture from the south - why does this not feed enough moisture to drive the storm's momentum and prevent it from taking the easterly turn the models are predicting?

[JC-CT]

Did he say what the darker blue shade was in Southern CT?

 

I'm sure he didn't, he forecasts for Boston.

[Damage In Tolland]

Harvey

Exactly what mine would look like.. Though I'd go 8-12+ coastal CT to Mass

[SR Airglow]

Not worth much since it's the long range HRRR, but the 23z looked pretty lousy for anyone north of NYC. Had 7" in Manhattan and 1" at BDR(with pretty much nothing NE of there) by 9 AM tomorrow.

[BostonWX]

Exactly what mine would look like.. Though I'd go 8-12+ coastal CT to Mass

 

Yeah, that's probably a 10-14 for coastal CT but maybe that should go north at like 8-12 towards new bedford

[JC-CT]

Not worth much since it's the long range HRRR, but the 23z looked pretty lousy for anyone north of NYC. Had 7" in Manhattan and 1" at BDR(with pretty much nothing NE of there) by 9 AM tomorrow.

 

Yeah, that's when it would start.

[weathafella]

Go with Harvey. There's no one better on tv. Sorry tv guys here....40 years experience and the ability to call it right despite being an uber snow weenie is pretty amazing in one of the biggest winter markets.

[ORH_wxman]

SREFs are finally getting a clue, but verbatim still ridiculous...they have 1" line from like Cape Ann to ORH to POU still and over 2" SE MA...but the gradient NW of that has tightened a ton.

 

So probably by the next update they will be closer to reality...about 50-70 miles S of that.

[Damage In Tolland]

Not worth much since it's the long range HRRR, but the 23z looked pretty lousy for anyone north of NYC. Had 7" in Manhattan and 1" at BDR(with pretty much nothing NE of there) by 9 AM tomorrow.