Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[Damage In Tolland]

One thing is for sure in this storm...the radar hallucinations are going to be epic. It's going to look amazing for a long time before it craps the bed just short of most of us.

 

I still think the south coast though should get in on some goodies.

You agree with BOX advisories/warnings? 

[Damage In Tolland]

4km NAM

 

[Ginx snewx]

I thing I have been following is EPS mean precip. The last 3 runs it keeps increasing precip on the NE heading, First CNJ then NYC now CC. Something to watch out near 95. Mean on the cape now is a solid 8-10

[ORH_wxman]

You agree with BOX advisories/warnings? 

 

 

I'd be nervous in the advisory sections about choking on arctic exhaust....but they are probably ok for now. There is a chance one more last minute tick could put the advisory sections in warning snows, so they want to have at least some sort of headline.

[CoastalWx]

The area from BOS to CEF-HFD-GHG definitely is one that could be sucking exhaust. I don't feel terribly bullish there..especially near anr north of CT border to BOS or so.

[HullMA]

We're in a WSW. Kindve surprised. Thought i was too far north... I will take it though. Now time to sit back and just watch this.

[CoastalWx]

We're in a WSW. Kindve surprised. Thought i was too far north... I will take it though. Now time to sit back and just watch this.

I think you are too far north.

[ineedsnow]

Hoping for one more bump north but its a long shot

The area from BOS to CEF-HFD-GHG definitely is one that could be sucking exhaust. I don't feel terribly bullish there..especially near anr north of CT border to BOS or so.

[Ginx snewx]

The probabilities Ryan.talked about jumped NE too. I would be encouraged in the 95 south and SE areas.

[Damage In Tolland]

The area from BOS to CEF-HFD-GHG definitely is one that could be sucking exhaust. I don't feel terribly bullish there..especially near anr north of CT border to BOS or so.

What would you forecast? 1-3?

[HullMA]

I think you are too far north.

Ill drive down to GHG or PYM.

[Ginx snewx]

Phil and James high fiving

[Damage In Tolland]

Phil and James high fiving

Beware the Freak weenie band. We're very wary of that

[ineedsnow]

18z gfs started

[CoastalWx]

What would you forecast? 1-3?

Probably ok for now yeah. Wouldn't shock me if you had a bit more.

[jm1220]

This will be a first for me. I've never seen LGA on the FRH grid near 2.25" in liq equiv (all snow), while BOS manages only a 10th of an inch.

I have seen that attempted in the models on numerous occasions over the years. Ultimately, at least some percentage of the LGA numbers smeared up into SNE.

In this situation, given to the models absolute unyielding presentation 0 snow in EEN while it's perhaps nearing a foot in CT, ..seems we'll just have to pull the seemingly physically impossible gradient here. interesting.

The upshot for me is that I had plans to go to an AFC party, which this is good because that won't canceled. Word!

Philly and Central Park are maybe 80 miles apart, Philly received 2 feet of snow on 2/6/10, Central Park nothing. So these gradients have happened unfortunately.

[Ginx snewx]

Standing on the beach in RI staring at a blizzard warning for BID ftw,lol

[CoastalWx]

We all know the northern edge band will happen. It's a battle of confluence really. But BDR, HVN, UUU, HYA all under the gun IMO. This will become a nowcast deal really.

[CarverWX]

We all know the northern edge band will happen. It's a battle of confluence really. But BDR, HVN, UUU, HYA all under the gun IMO. This will become a nowcast deal really.

Scott do you think the OES will be heavy or jut some extra light accum?

[JC-CT]

I think we see another tick north this run based on early frames.

[medmax]

What are we thinking for BOS at this point?

[CoastalWx]

Scott do you think the OES will be heavy or jut some extra light accum?

Doesn't look heavy. It actually looks to start near in northwest of Boston as some coastal front aided snow. Then, as winda become more Northeast to north northeast I expect this band to move Southeast and for more typical ocean effect bands of snow to develop Saturday evening.

[subdude]

meh....i'll take my c-1" and run with it. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Rgem is concerning for nyc folk cuz it struggles getting the precip there but at the mid levels, it seems like there should be more of a dry slot into lower MA coast so the precip would essentially be more north. I dunno, maybe I'm wrong.

[BostonWX]

18 z gfs looks north

[ineedsnow]

That convective blob on the gfs robs us

[ineedsnow]

Nice bump north though on the gfs

[ROOSTA]

Secondary is forming around Myrtle Beach...SHOWTIME

[Damage In Tolland]

It's got light precip into SNH. It's north

[Ginx snewx]

Tick tock