Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[Damage In Tolland]

NAM was actually slightly better with the front end push in CT...but it was def worse with the second conveyor in E and SE MA.

IMO..that's trying to pick up on Freak's 700-500 banding  

[CoastalWx]

Tomorrow will have weenies looking at the first band and commenting on how good it looks until it craps out north of the Merrit. 

[ORH_wxman]

More like TAN south

 

BOS is gonna get a over a foot on the RPM I think.

[BostonWX]

I hate seeing the pressure falls map , that's when you know it's over.

[78Blizzard]

NAM cut way back here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nothing wrong with that 18z NAM solution where I sit.

[Morch Madness]

4km NAM actually looks a lot better so far

[Damage In Tolland]

Going to be some pleasant surprises for you folks up near and north of I-90. Models showing you that in different ways

[Jenkins]

Blizzard Warnings coming for BID, Martha's Vineyard and Winter Storm Warning southern 2/3 of RI with advisory north, per Tony Petrarca and Mark Searles on twitter.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Interesting how the 2" line runs to about Poughkeepsie, then bends hard to the south over western CT

 

[JC-CT]

Are the EPS out?

[CoastalWx]

Are the EPS out?

 

Cut back a bit near the pike and added a bit near the Cape. Basically gradient tightened.

[HullMA]

4km slams SE MA

Also OES for bos to tan maybe even back into RI a bit. Decent fetch i think

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Going to be some pleasant surprises for you folks up near and north of I-90. Models showing you that in different ways

 

 

Tomorrow will have weenies looking at the first band and commenting on how good it looks until it craps out north of the Merrit.

[danstorm]

NAM will come back to reality. 

 

Can't argue with 8 straight epic runs and we're within 12 hr. of start time down here. 

 

I'm starting to at least give it some consideration.

[jm1220]

It's starting to look like NYC ends up close to the jack as they get both the WWA thump and then the CCB..While DCA to Philly dry slots

NAM is likely still overdone, but NYC can afford it to be a little overdone at this point and still get annihilated. GFS last run was very close to nailing NYC and the Euro brings the 1.5" liquid contour to the southern parts of the city. If NYC ends up the pivot area, you can start talking 20"+ there.

[ineedsnow]

4k nam looks really good

[CoastalWx]

Can't argue with 8 straight epic runs and we're within 12 hr. of start time down here. 

 

I'm starting to at least give it some consideration.

 

I think down there it's different...I mean moreso up here.

[JC-CT]

Can't argue with 8 straight epic runs and we're within 12 hr. of start time down here. 

 

I'm starting to at least give it some consideration.

 

If the Euro was run 4 times a day it would look just as consistent.

[Damage In Tolland]

NAM is likely still overdone, but NYC can afford it to be a little overdone at this point and still get annihilated. GFS last run was very close to nailing NYC and the Euro brings the 1.5" liquid contour to the southern parts of the city. If NYC ends up the pivot area, you can start talking 20"+ there.

Trust me..you guys are sitting in the perfect spot for this.. DCA and Philly will rip and then slot for hours..while you guys sit in heavy snow as it transfers to 2nd low and ccb just destroys you. That's the money spot right there. And Virginia..west of the dry slot

[JC-CT]

I think down there it's different...I mean moreso up here.

 

Right...NYC has some support from the global models now, it's a matter of how much and not if for them.

[powderfreak]

 

 

Very interesting, Ginxy.  Thanks.  That is going to be one heck of a beast of a band on the south coast. 

 

Watch one form way north and bring Hubb Dave like 4-5", haha.

[78Blizzard]

Going to be some pleasant surprises for you folks up near and north of I-90. Models showing you that in different ways

Yeah, we might see some stratus instead of cirrus.

[radarman]

Going to be some pleasant surprises for you folks up near and north of I-90. Models showing you that in different ways

c-1" here is my expectation. Think the prolonged virga ideas might be overdone... not a classic dry air bleed in the valley IMO... but I do think the pivot east as the transfer occurs will be dramatic and pronounced. Will be disappointed and mildly surprised if we don't see a flake.

[Ginx snewx]

Nothing wrong with that 18z NAM solution where I sit.

lol 4k.

[jm1220]

Trust me..you guys are sitting in the perfect spot for this.. DCA and Philly will rip and then slot for hours..while you guys sit in heavy snow as it transfers to 2nd low and cab just destroys you. That's the money spot right there. And Virginia..west of the dry slot

I bailed on taking a flight back from Austin when the models were becoming shaky down there. I'm kicking myself a little because 2/6/10 still remains very fresh in my mind as do other busts, but it will still be very exciting to follow along. If it's 75% of the storm the NAM is advertising at home, this could be one talked about for a long time.

[BostonWX]

Rpm keeps the fire burning with 12 just south of bos to Orh and 20 se ma. Even the nam is ditching, next run the rpm is bailing.

[CarverWX]

Per the NAM we get smoked down this way. I hope it has some kind of clue.

[Baroclinic Zone]

lol 4k.

 

I saved that one for later.

[EastonSN+]

Tomorrow will have weenies looking at the first band and commenting on how good it looks until it craps out north of the Merrit. 

I live in Easton CT Right above the Merritt - Models are now 4 inches to 22 (From GFS to NAM). In your own opinion, throwing out the Nam, that the GFS/EUR/GGEM can shift another 15 miles north?