Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[CapturedNature]

With over a 128 pages I thought we could use a new thread.  Maybe I can bring some Juju?

[CoastalWx]

Yeah Will...I would guess the cities along the S coast are in good agreement for WSW. 

[Tolland Death Band]

Can anyone share their thoughts on start time, in the greater Hartford area?

 

Assuming we even see a flake.

[Hoth]

Another radio show tonight? Or is my browser just doing funny things?

[klw]

[OceanStWx]

It's interesting that both the GFS and NAM are elongating and then developing a new mid level low center just off the Cape.

[OceanStWx]

Clearly what eastern MA wants to happen to get in on the goods. 

[JC-CT]

Can anyone share their thoughts on start time, in the greater Hartford area?

 

Assuming we even see a flake.

 

Light rain will begin around 8pm Tuesday evening.

[dendrite]

It's interesting that both the GFS and NAM are elongating and then developing a new mid level low center just off the Cape.

We were mentioning that the 6z meteofrance model did that too. Late onside kick for James.

[Hoth]

Neophyte question: would the ScootStreak be visible on WV? I'm just eyeballing Manitoba and that energy streaming over from the Pac. Is that it? As always, much obliged.

[JC-CT]

BOX graphic shows Boston with aprox 1 in 4 chance of >18". 

[CoastalWx]

Clearly what eastern MA wants to happen to get in on the goods. 

 

Yes, the NAM wrapped it back in when it nuked H5 off ACK.

[JC-CT]

Yes, the NAM wrapped it back in when it nuked H5 off ACK.

 

Enjoy your NWS forecast of 0 to 23" inches.

[40/70 Benchmark]

BOX graphic shows Boston with aprox 1 in 4 chance of >18". 

That isn't bad, dude.

[HullMA]

I thought it was interesting how no one commented on the fact no balloons were released into the Caribbean. There is a ton of moisture and energy streaming from there for this one.

[ORH_wxman]

Another radio show tonight? Or is my browser just doing funny things?

 

I think that's old from last night...need to take it down.

 

edit: it's gone now

[CoastalWx]

BTV WRF has a real good OES signal for near BOS and especially south into PYM county.

[Ginx snewx]

It's interesting that both the GFS and NAM are elongating and then developing a new mid level low center just off the Cape.

trend has been closer to the coast. That could be a surprise element going forward. 30-36 hrs away is still a long time away in this situation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's interesting that both the GFS and NAM are elongating and then developing a new mid level low center just off the Cape.

This is why I posted a HUGE caveat/disclaimer on FB.

 

Credit to those who picked up on that.

[OceanStWx]

GInx mentioned the QPF bump for NJ.

 

With the H8 feed from Bermuda at 80 knots or so, slamming into the deformation, that should be some efficient precip production.

[HullMA]

BOX graphic shows Boston with aprox 1 in 4 chance of >18". 

I'm not complaining. I think its a fair number honestly.

[klw]

Some early returns from down South:

 

Greer SC office:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&product=PNS&issuedby=GSP

 

Roanoke area:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&product=PNS&issuedby=RNK

 

Sterling VA

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&product=PNS&issuedby=LWX

[CT Rain]

With some dry air advecting south - while that may screw us with snow - the models are showing a pretty well mixed boundary layer in S CT. The GFS even with its relatively meh snowfall forecast probably gets 50 knot gusts into GON. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Watch Scooter jack again from OES with 12-15

[Ginx snewx]

BTV WRF has a real good OES signal for near BOS and especially south into PYM county.

If Scott S was here we would have two closed threads by now. Lol, RIP

[OceanStWx]

I thought it was interesting how no one commented on the fact no balloons were released into the Caribbean. There is a ton of moisture and energy streaming from there for this one.

 

We really only have Puerto Rico to help us there. Unless it's a US territory we can't really ask them to launch extra balloons.

[ORH_wxman]

GInx mentioned the QPF bump for NJ.

 

With the H8 feed from Bermuda at 80 knots or so, slamming into the deformation, that should be some efficient precip production.

 

 

The models have been playing catchup with the larger ULL/mid-level moisture feed in that area...the globals in NNJ/NYC area were pretty putrid yesterday but now there's pretty good consensus of a big hit. The risky blizzard watches put out yesterday are looking good from OKX.

 

I feel like the same thing will happen further northeast along the south coast...

[CT Rain]

The models have been playing catchup with the larger ULL/mid-level moisture feed in that area...the globals in NNJ/NYC area were pretty putrid yesterday but now there's pretty good consensus of a big hit. The risky blizzard watches put out yesterday are looking good from OKX.

 

I feel like the same thing will happen further northeast along the south coast...

 

Yeah - if I was back home around HVN I would be pretty pumped about this one.

 

I could definitely see 0" here and nearly a foot down there. 

[Ginx snewx]

Some early returns from down South:

Greer SC office:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&product=PNS&issuedby=GSP

Roanoke area:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&product=PNS&issuedby=GSP

thanks.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah - if I was back home around HVN I would be pretty pumped about this one.

I could definitely see 0" here and nearly a foot down there.

Lol. Good luck with that forecast. You aren't getting 0