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Jan 23/24 2016 obs/nowcast - the fight for the North


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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Is there any place you can get model forecast for that

 

For what parameter? ML fronto?

 

Most sites don't have much plots for that, but you can infer it by looking at the wind flags/temps and also VVs. SPC mesonalaysis will plot it. Wright weather plots frontogensis too...I actually wish more sites would do it.

 

 

edit: and see the FSU link that dendrite posted.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MD...ERN PA...NJ...SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

   VALID 231744Z - 232345Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   FROM MD AND ERN PA ENEWD ACROSS NJ INTO SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.
   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH
   SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE
   UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NC WITH A POWERFUL 100 TO 120
   KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 987 MB SFC
   LOW IS LOCATED 190 STATUTE MILES TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY.
   STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW IN A
   BAND FROM SE PA EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE
   EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS ALSO ENHANCING LIFT. IN
   ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOW CONDITIONS
   VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER FROM
   500 TO 600 MB AND AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER FAVORABLE FOR AGGREGATION FROM
   700 TO 900 MB. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE JUST TO THE NORTH
   OF A DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE
   RAP KEEPS THIS DEFORMATION ZONE NEARLY STATIONARY WHICH SHOULD KEEP
   A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL NWD EXPANSION FROM NEAR
   INTERSTATE 80 IN ERN PA ENEWD INTO NEW YORK CITY AND ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND ALONG INTERSTATE 95. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MCD AREA ACROSS ERN PA...NRN NJ INTO THE NEW
   YORK CITY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING
   WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE.

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