JC-CT Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Flurries would be generous right now. Total lull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Is Wareham Mass looking like it will stay all snow And decent accums May chase there instead of New Haven or New London. Leaving from Nashua at 1230 Looking for suggestions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Low levels won't be a problem, but there still is a fair amount of dry air at 850 mb that needed to be overcome on the 12z CHH sounding. More importantly GYX has PWAT of 0.11 at 12z...north winds will be killer on the northern edge. Dry air has been overplayed for days in my opinion. The reality is the storm is off the coast of the del marva, occluding 500+ miles south of SNE and the confluence causing it to redevelop ENE, well east of the BM is the major fly in the ointment for eastern New England. I'd be watching for upper level height rises east of CC, rather than focusing on mid level dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 lull here as the good stuff lifted to my nw, waiting for the se echoes now to push into the area. only a matter of time. feeling good for SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 1030 AM UPDATE... SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STRONG SNOWBAND HASSET UP ACROSS LONG ISLAND TO BLOCK ISLAND AND ONTO NANTUCKET. THISBAND IS THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. PORTIONS OF LONGISLAND HAS RECEIVED SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR ANDANTICIPATE THAT TO IMPACT BI AND MVY AND THE SOUTH COAST OFSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS BAND IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITHINTENSE LIFT/OMEGA IN THE 12Z NAM. IN FACT F-GEN SHOWS THIS BANDMAKING ALL THE WAY UP INTO CENTRAL CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. WEREALLY LIKE THE LATEST NAM AND RAP QPF GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THETIGHT QPF GRADIENT. ONLY ISSUE IS THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ADROP OFF IN QPF ACROSS NORFOLK/BRISTOL COUNTIES SO HAVE A LOWERCONFIDENCE IN THERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. PERHAPS THE HRRR IS ONTOTHE DRIER AIR THAT THE BAND WILL HAVE TO PUSH THROUGH. IF THE BANDMAKES IT UP THERE THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 10 INCHES. BUT IFIT DOESNT THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 5 INCHES...AGAIN LOWERCONFIDENCE.THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE ADVISORIES TO WARNINGSACROSS CT/RI AND SE MASS AND ADDED A TIER OF ADV INTO WORCESTER TOSUFFOLK COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED IN PREV AFD THERE WILL BE A VERYTIGHT GRADIENT FROM SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO VERY LITTLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 You are 4 hours too early on that On what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Here too.. Torture watching this, wondering if the dry air will ever relent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Always should have been an advisory for Boston imo. 2-5" was always in the cards there. Good luck, Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 On what?Good bands making it to the border/pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Man what a time for Belichick....AFC championship, and 1'+ down on ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Dry air has been overplayed for days in my opinion. The reality is the storm is off the coast of the del marva, occluding 500+ miles south of SNE and the confluence causing it to redevelop ENE, well east of the BM is the major fly in the ointment for eastern New England. I'd be watching for upper level height rises east of CC, rather than focusing on mid level dry air. It all ties in. It wouldn't bother me if we had a better thrust of PVA/WAA to the north. But expecting this arm to pivot into BOS and deliver greater than 6" by Italy while getting eaten alive may be tough IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Good bands making it to the border/pike. So you're thinking 6:00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Is Wareham Mass looking like it will stay all snow And decent accums May chase there instead of New Haven or New London. Leaving from Nashua at 1230 Looking for suggestions Yeah, go for it. You could go over to Sagamore area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Dry air has been overplayed for days in my opinion. The reality is the storm is off the coast of the del marva, occluding 500+ miles south of SNE and the confluence causing it to redevelop ENE, well east of the BM is the major fly in the ointment for eastern New England. I'd be watching for upper level height rises east of CC, rather than focusing on mid level dry air. Isn't it all part of the same problem? Confluence, high pressure, dry air. Fact is SNE is under pretty good divergence aloft, on the fringe of WAA, and it's still a struggle to get visibility to drop under 2SM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 So you're thinking 6:00?I am not sure this current banding will make it to the pike at all, maybe it makes it to you or up to the border but maybe not. I'd love to be wrong, box says I'm wrong and they've forgotten a lot more than I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 WOAH upton just upped me to 18-24 inches http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 It all ties in. It wouldn't bother me if we had a better thrust of PVA/WAA to the north. But expecting this arm to pivot into BOS and deliver greater than 6" by Italy while getting eaten alive may be tough IMO. I guess I'm not seeing this as the preexisting banding pivoting. I'm reading the higher amounts along Eastern New England as a result of the redevelopment and second "quasi" occlusion, if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I do know it's no longer snowing but it may come in as a wall of white shortly. I'll let you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Rivaling 92 floods in NJ, next high tide further north is the one to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 So far that band matches the best 850-700 mb f-gen the best, so I would watch how that trends over the next couple of hours. It's moved very little in the last two hours, and is starting to shift east slightly. So I'm guessing more agonizing radar returns until the afternoon reorganization of mid levels occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I do know it's no longer snowing but it may come in as a wall of white shortly. I'll let you know. We had a lull about 30 minutes ago...but much larger flakes now and moderate rates. Should move up your way soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I guess I'm not seeing this as the preexisting banding pivoting. I'm reading the higher amounts along Eastern New England as a result of the redevelopment and second "quasi" occlusion, if you will. The picture in my head is that this band hangs out near its current location, and as the redevelopment occurs this afternoon a weakened version of it may bump into SE MA or redevelop into SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I guess I'm not seeing this as the preexisting banding pivoting. I'm reading the higher amounts along Eastern New England as a result of the redevelopment and second "quasi" occlusion, if you will. Yeah that's the second development. But it's fighting all the issues previously mentioned. As the ULL starts to dumbell east, the thrust of this may lose the WNW punch it will have later today. But cape cod will get smacked for sure. We always have dry air to start for the big ones thanks to that confluence. It's what helps supply cold. This time, the system just passes a bit too far SE to give us the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 23m 23 minutes ago Any chance all the NAM bashing was incorrect? NYC to get more snow than DCA!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yea it's on, sn- winds ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yea it's on, sn- winds ripping You at the museum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The picture in my head is that this band hangs out near its current location, and as the redevelopment occurs this afternoon a weakened version of it may bump into SE MA or redevelop into SE MA. So reading between the lines..you think most places north of that band now are shutout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 +SN North Haven. 1.0" New Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Some dim sun now visible through the clouds. This is easily one of the most painful near misses in a long time... yup...agreed..its brutal but at least its a cold day with a slate grey sky...even these have been rare this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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